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PS4 will win
This time there isn't a competition

Sony is doing as it looks like everything right with the PS4
They fixed all the problems and mistakes they made with the developers and got complete 3rd Party Support.
Their Launch Lineup looks a lot better compared to the one of the PS3(just saw what was available a few pages before this one and it was piss poor)
The Price will be reasonable and they won't start a year later with bad multiplats.They are used as the leader in this Gen cause they stand for gaming and their community is interested in every genre and accepts new innovations a lot better.They also have the far superior hardware and games directly from the start to show of.
They have the far bigger 1st and 2nd Party Lineup for REAL Games(not motion stuff) and are future proof with Gaikai.
Apps and stuff will add to the experience.Would be interesting to see if they can get the Football Worldcup 2014 aired over their service in 4k(Japan is airing it in 4k and probably some others will too over paytv)
Netflix has for example the best experience on the PS3 and they will continue to get support.

The only "fight" will be in the USA
But i think Sony did good with stealing the "new" CoD aka Destiny away from Microsoft.
This will be an important franchise if they have the better version with the probably better and more customer friendly online service as they already have right now(fact).
Bungie is/was something like the Holy Graal to the XBox Community - They wouldn't exist without Halo and now they betrayed them.Especially after Destiny was rumored to be a timed exclusive franchise for Microsoft.
Halo and CoD will still go strong but i think this time Sony can counter it a lot better and directly from the start with the support they have right now.
And i think MIcrosoft can't "steal" anything away from Sony this time.Most of the developers went already Multiplat especially Japanese ones and some of them failed and lost everything including their reputation and fanbase cause they changed their games so much(Capcom),sell insanely better on the Sony Platform(SquareEnix stuff) or went back to Sony(Bamco and co)
There won't be a surprice effect like "OMG this and that and everythingelse isn't exclusive anymore - Sony is doomed"

Even if the NextBox will win there(USA) the gap will be MUCH smaller than in this Gen and the other areas aren't even worth a talk over...Europe is Sony territory and so is Japan if Nintendo isn't getting their stuff together.