Metallicube said:
pezus said:
Metallicube said:
That is anybody's guess, since there seems to be no concrete data. There are basically three camps; those that believe DS has ALREADY passed PS2 (hardcore Nintendo fans), those that believe it has not yet passed it, but will soon (logical assumption), and those that believe it NEVER will pass it (hardcore Sony fans). I count myself in the second category :P
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First camp can easily be proved wrong, so I don't see why anyone would be there. Second camp is on the losing side and third camp on the winning side  .
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So you think it's likely DS will not pass PS2, even though DS is 4 years younger, has more games yet to be released, and is still in production while PS2 is not? I think that's a long shot. Might take awhile, might even take 5 years or so, but I think DS passing PS2 is inevitable at this point. One important factor people forget is that Nintendo still has room for a pretty significant price drop, not to mention the holiday seasons to come, which tend to favor Nintendo.
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Can you find me a console that Nintendo has supported for 5 years in NA (which is the only place the DS is really selling) after its successor has launched, let alone 7? The NES was pulled off of NA shelves 4 years after the SNES launched. The SNES was discontinued in NA 3 years after the N64 launched. The N64 was taken off shelves in NA 2 years after it the Gamecube launched. The Gamecube only lasted 1 year into the Wii's launch. Let's look at the more relevant consoles, though, handhelds. The GBC was discontinued 2 years after the GBA launched. While the GBA lasted 4 years after the DS launched, though this was mostly due to it being only 3 years old when the DS launched.
As you see, Nintendo, on average, supports their consoles 2.7 years after its successor has been launched. This is why it is easy to calculate that the DS will be discontinued either in late 2013 or sometime in 2014, 2 1/2 - 3 1/2 years after the 3DS launched. Not nearly the 3+ years from NOW it needs to pass the PS2.
But, let's talk about the most important factor of all. Nintendo IS NOT the sole decider on if a console is discontinued or not. It is also up to retailers. Right now, in the US, we have 8 systems competing for shelve space. The PS3, PSP, Vita, Wii U, Wii, 3DS, DS, and the 360. Later this year, we are most likely going to have 2 new systems launching, the PS4 and the 360. There's no way stores are going to make room for 10 consoles to be on shelves at once. So, which ones are going away. The ones that are the oldest and not selling very much HW/SW. That would be the PSP and the DS, possibly even the Wii. So, sometime in 2014, its going to be the PS4, PS3, Vita, Wii U, Wii (may no longer be there), 3DS, NeXbox, and the 360.
In other words, the more reasonable people realize that it isn't going to happen. Not unless Nintendo sells them for $20 a pop for the next year and a half. And that would either be a hollow victory or it may end up still not drawing enough interest to push it over the 157M+ mark.
