If this is all based on the fact that the recent games aren't matching the sales curve of NSMBWii then I think I might have to go bang my head against a wall.
NSMBWii was the perfect game at the perfect time. It was the first 2D Mario game on a Nintendo home console in nearly two decades, released when the Wii was still close to its peak, and it coincided with the first official price cut the console received, all of which combined to drive record breaking sales for the year end period.
A game launching outside of a holiday period, on a handheld that still hasn't hit its peak, and a game launching with a console would never, ever be able to match that performance.
NSMBU has a 59% attach rate by VGC numbers, or a 66% attach rate by Nintendo shipment numbers. That's without any bundling, and I'd say that's pretty impressive. If you're going to respond by saying it's an anomaly helped by a low userbase, then I'd ask you why doesn't the Vita, which also has a low userbase, have anything with an attach rate higher than 21%?
I'd honestly say, it seems like instead of doing the usual thing of analysing the data to help you come to a conclusion, you've come to a conclusion and then tried to make the data fit.
If I'm not mistaken Golden Abyss had a 50% attach rate during the launch window here in the US.
Other than that I understand that the Wii was the right game at the right time but doesn't that kind of support my point, that the times are changing and that NSMB at the price it's at may not be the answer in the future and that there is a risk of meeting a similar fate to Nintendogs and Brain Age?
If by "bomb" you mean a big decrease in sales, rather than unprofitable games, then no. There is no fictional universe or character tied to these games, so they couldn't have the same longevity and staying power as games that do have these things. On top of that Nintendo made sure that the 3DS would not attract these types of consumers.
Your problem is that you oversimplify the categorisation of video games. Since you've decided that 2D platformers are not hardcore games, they have to be casual games. Building on this logic, since casual games like Nintendogs are declining, you figure that the same applies to everything that falls under your label of "casual games". Therefore, NSMB and other 2D platformers are in big trouble and their demise is inevitable, if Nintendo doesn't take any measures.
You still refuse to address the sales data, instead you try to compare 2D platformers to anything that might support your argument. But the first thing you need to look at in such a discussion is direct data, so the state of the NSMB series has to be judged by the sales of the NSMB series. Not Angry Birds, not Limbo, not League of Legends, not Nintendogs.
NSMB2 is keeping pace with NSMB in the USA and Europe despite an increase in price. So what is the problem? There is none, unless you artificially create one. NSMB2 has fallen behind its predecessor in Japan, but it's still going to be among the best selling games of all time in this country. Therefore, you still cannot make the argument that the NSMB series is in trouble without implying that virtually every video game series in existence is in trouble.
If you reply to this post, don't sidestep the discussion again. Talk about the sales of 2D platformers, because the subject is sales of 2D platformers. Also consider why the games you attack the most are the same games that are able to keep their MSRP for the longest time and why virtually every non-Nintendo game doesn't manage to go one year without an official price drop. Ask yourself why Nintendo's 2D platformers don't need to drop in price while the vast majority of other games needs to.
Now you're using non-sales information to judge the future performance of Nintendogs and Brain Age, when earlier you were saying that it's all subjective... Anyways I don't do that so I can understand your point, yet the fictional worlds in NSMB are not being exploited like they are in the 3D Mario series.
From a Castle to a Sunshine plaza to a Galaxy setting, the 3D Mario series is in constant evolution, much like Angry Birds, then Angry Birds Space, etc. etc. I don't see that happening for NSMB in the way it's being handled. It's always more of the same. So the argument applies to both Nintendogs and NSMB.
An exception to this is Animal Crossing, which seems to have some few improvements here and there but only has some updates between versions, yet people still buy it because it is highly addictive and have an online community aspect to it.
NSMB2 is to be compares with all the NSMB, not just the one on DS. As such the trend from NSMBW is downward. Also, though it will still beat the other games, like I said earlier Nintendo's forecasts are based on expectations of the series against itself, and as such they downward performance of the series is going to hurt them more and more.
My discussion is regarding all games that are easy to make, that are retro or in the Free to Play or very affordable offerings (1-15$) games, so you don't set the rules in my thread. It's a fair comparison and you have yet to give a valid reason why the comparison is not acceptable other than saying "it is not acceptable".
You realize, don't you, that had everyone had that opinion when the first James Bond was released there never would have been a 007 movie series? Only buying tickets to the biggest blockbusters, only paying full price for the most advanced AAA games? If everyone did that there would never be a new IP or new movie franchises.
I'm not sure that's how startups work in the movie business. I also watch movies outside of the theaters, and some new IPs don't even make it to thet cinema. Think outside the box, think real.