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Forums - Nintendo - Pachter says the Wii U optimistically will sell around 40- 45 M units LTD.

S.T.A.G.E. on 13 January 2013
osed125 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
osed125 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
osed125 said:

As a more serious note, it still very hard to tell how much a console will sell, but just to guess I could see the Wii U being at 40m worst case scenario and 80m as the maximum. 


What about the WIi U's positioning makes you feel like it will have mass casual appeal like the Wii again?

I don't expect the Wii U to gather casuals like the Wii did, maybe a couple of games like Wii Sports and the likes could do the job but not the same amount of sales like the Wii did. 


So...how do you expect people to fall for the tablet controllers games if they rule out the need for a tablet controller that has an as many buttons as an Xbox 360? The Wii was a hot item because it had less buttons and simplified the process of gaming for all involved, by reducing it to waggle movement. They can do all that on their IPads. The interest in the novelty of the device comes before the game. I believe the name value of Wii Sports would be the seller rather than the controller itself. The Wii U must have more applications to get the general non-gaming audiences attention though.

The Wii U still uses the normal Wiimotes, so the simplified games like Wii Sports, Just Dance and the likes will stay (plus whatever things you can do with the Gamepad, although those will be optional). They will surely decrease in popularity, but if the devs want they can still make those games for the Wii U (Ubisoft already did with Just Dance 4).


I noted that the Wii motes are still factored around Nintendo Land but they are secondary. How many people will reinvest in a wii mote after they sold off their Wii? I say this because the Nielsens stated that the PS3 and 360 had more utility than the Wii hence why the Wii had less user activity even though it at one time sold double what they sold. I am sure about 70% of Wii's were being sold back to gamestop or sold off on Ebay, Amazon or Craigslist. it served its limited purpose and entertained them for a little bit. 



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osed125 on 13 January 2013
S.T.A.G.E. said:
osed125 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
osed125 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
osed125 said:

As a more serious note, it still very hard to tell how much a console will sell, but just to guess I could see the Wii U being at 40m worst case scenario and 80m as the maximum. 


What about the WIi U's positioning makes you feel like it will have mass casual appeal like the Wii again?

I don't expect the Wii U to gather casuals like the Wii did, maybe a couple of games like Wii Sports and the likes could do the job but not the same amount of sales like the Wii did. 


So...how do you expect people to fall for the tablet controllers games if they rule out the need for a tablet controller that has an as many buttons as an Xbox 360? The Wii was a hot item because it had less buttons and simplified the process of gaming for all involved, by reducing it to waggle movement. They can do all that on their IPads. The interest in the novelty of the device comes before the game. I believe the name value of Wii Sports would be the seller rather than the controller itself. The Wii U must have more applications to get the general non-gaming audiences attention though.

The Wii U still uses the normal Wiimotes, so the simplified games like Wii Sports, Just Dance and the likes will stay (plus whatever things you can do with the Gamepad, although those will be optional). They will surely decrease in popularity, but if the devs want they can still make those games for the Wii U (Ubisoft already did with Just Dance 4).


I noted that the Wii motes are still factored around Nintendo Land but they are secondary. How many people will reinvest in a wii mote after they sold off their Wii? I say this because the Nielsens stated that the PS3 and 360 had more utility than the Wii hence why the Wii had less user activity even though it at one time sold double what they sold. I am sure about 70% of Wii's were being sold back to gamestop or sold off on Ebay, Amazon or Craigslist. it served its limited purpose and entertained them for a little bit. 

@bold Do you have a source of that? Anyway you just have to look at Just Dance 4 Wii sales, the people are still buying those games and as soon as an exclusive Wii U Just Dance comes out all those people who bought a Wii will have all the Wiimotes they need for the new console version. Also keep in mind the Wii U only uses 1 touch controller (with 2 in the future) so the Wiimotes are still necessary for more than 1 player (NSMBU and NintendoLand do it).



Nintendo and PC gamer

S.T.A.G.E. on 13 January 2013
osed125 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
osed125 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
osed125 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
osed125 said:

As a more serious note, it still very hard to tell how much a console will sell, but just to guess I could see the Wii U being at 40m worst case scenario and 80m as the maximum. 


What about the WIi U's positioning makes you feel like it will have mass casual appeal like the Wii again?

I don't expect the Wii U to gather casuals like the Wii did, maybe a couple of games like Wii Sports and the likes could do the job but not the same amount of sales like the Wii did. 


So...how do you expect people to fall for the tablet controllers games if they rule out the need for a tablet controller that has an as many buttons as an Xbox 360? The Wii was a hot item because it had less buttons and simplified the process of gaming for all involved, by reducing it to waggle movement. They can do all that on their IPads. The interest in the novelty of the device comes before the game. I believe the name value of Wii Sports would be the seller rather than the controller itself. The Wii U must have more applications to get the general non-gaming audiences attention though.

The Wii U still uses the normal Wiimotes, so the simplified games like Wii Sports, Just Dance and the likes will stay (plus whatever things you can do with the Gamepad, although those will be optional). They will surely decrease in popularity, but if the devs want they can still make those games for the Wii U (Ubisoft already did with Just Dance 4).


I noted that the Wii motes are still factored around Nintendo Land but they are secondary. How many people will reinvest in a wii mote after they sold off their Wii? I say this because the Nielsens stated that the PS3 and 360 had more utility than the Wii hence why the Wii had less user activity even though it at one time sold double what they sold. I am sure about 70% of Wii's were being sold back to gamestop or sold off on Ebay, Amazon or Craigslist. it served its limited purpose and entertained them for a little bit. 

@bold Do you have a source of that? Anyway you just have to look at Just Dance 4 Wii sales, the people are still buying those games and as soon as an exclusive Wii U Just Dance comes out all those people who bought a Wii will have all the Wiimotes they need for the new console version. Also keep in mind the Wii U only uses 1 touch controller (with 2 in the future) so the Wiimotes are still necessary for more than 1 player (NSMBU and NintendoLand do it).


70% of the systems being sold on the second hand market has nothing to do with 4-5 million in sales.



HappySqurriel on 13 January 2013

Without knowing what Sony and Microsoft are releasing, I think it is foolish to make much of a prediction about the Wii U's lifetime sales ...

People are mostly predicting massive success for the PS4 and "XBox 720" based on unrealistic assumptions about what Sony and Microsoft will produce; and making even more unrealistic assumptions of what these systems will sell for. In reality, Sony and Microsoft will have to deal with trade-offs and balance their desire to attract a "hardcore" market (high end device) with their desire to attract a broader market (accessable system at a low price) and there is nothing saying that these companies will get the balance right.

With that in mind, with the 3DS we saw that Nintendo was willing to go to extreme lengths to make their system successful, and with the PS-Vita we've seen that Sony is unwilling or unable to take the same kinds of action to improve the sales of their system; and we don't know to what extent Microsoft can afford to lose money to increase sales for a system. It is entirely plausable that Nintendo could "fix" the Wii U by E3, Sony and Microsoft could struggle with launching their systems, and Sony (and/or Microsoft) might be unwilling or unable to take action to increase their system's sales.



With Pachter though I would generally bet against any prediction he makes ... I could write a computer program that is as effective as Pacter with hardware predictions:

If( company == Sony)
{
Predict great sales
} else if( company == Microsoft)
{
Predict good sales
} else if ( company == Nintendo )
{
Predict mediocre or bad sales
} else
{
Predict sales better than Nintendo
}



osed125 on 13 January 2013
S.T.A.G.E. said:
osed125 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
osed125 said:

The Wii U still uses the normal Wiimotes, so the simplified games like Wii Sports, Just Dance and the likes will stay (plus whatever things you can do with the Gamepad, although those will be optional). They will surely decrease in popularity, but if the devs want they can still make those games for the Wii U (Ubisoft already did with Just Dance 4).


I noted that the Wii motes are still factored around Nintendo Land but they are secondary. How many people will reinvest in a wii mote after they sold off their Wii? I say this because the Nielsens stated that the PS3 and 360 had more utility than the Wii hence why the Wii had less user activity even though it at one time sold double what they sold. I am sure about 70% of Wii's were being sold back to gamestop or sold off on Ebay, Amazon or Craigslist. it served its limited purpose and entertained them for a little bit. 

@bold Do you have a source of that? Anyway you just have to look at Just Dance 4 Wii sales, the people are still buying those games and as soon as an exclusive Wii U Just Dance comes out all those people who bought a Wii will have all the Wiimotes they need for the new console version. Also keep in mind the Wii U only uses 1 touch controller (with 2 in the future) so the Wiimotes are still necessary for more than 1 player (NSMBU and NintendoLand do it).


70% of the systems being sold on the second hand market has nothing to do with 4-5 million in sales.

My point is that people still buy the dance type games and all of those people will have Wiimotes in their house. You are saying no casual is going to buy a Wii U casual game that uses Wiimotes because people throw away their Wii's (and thus their controllers), which is not exactly true because the game have sold almost 5m units in just 3 months. Or are you expecting 50% of Wii owners to own Just Dance? 



Nintendo and PC gamer

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osed125 on 13 January 2013
HappySqurriel said:
If( company == Sony)
{
Predict great sales
} else if( company == Microsoft)
{
Predict good sales
} else if ( company == Nintendo )
{
Predict mediocre or bad sales
} else
{
Predict sales better than Nintendo
}

Best comment I have seen in a while xD



Nintendo and PC gamer

Cheebee on 13 January 2013
S.T.A.G.E. said:


I noted that the Wii motes are still factored around Nintendo Land but they are secondary. How many people will reinvest in a wii mote after they sold off their Wii? I say this because the Nielsens stated that the PS3 and 360 had more utility than the Wii hence why the Wii had less user activity even though it at one time sold double what they sold. I am sure about 70% of Wii's were being sold back to gamestop or sold off on Ebay, Amazon or Craigslist. it served its limited purpose and entertained them for a little bit. 

So, that's about 70 million 2nd hand Wiis resold out there, eh? Sounds totally plausible.

In other news, I am sure tomorrow we'll be visited by martians who look like lollipops and who will give us the secret to eternal life and happiness.



Nintendo Network ID: Cheebee   3DS Code: 2320 - 6113 - 9046

 

Otakumegane on 13 January 2013

I'm perfectly fine with SNES numbers just bring me SNES levels of software and I'm good.



http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/profile/92109/nintendopie/ Nintendopie  Was obviously right and I was obviously wrong. I will forever be a lesser being than them. (6/16/13)

Wagram on 13 January 2013

It's way too early to call what it will sell LTD.



the_dengle on 13 January 2013

He reasoning comes down to "I don't get it." Not sales figures, upcoming games, price or anything else. Just "I don't get it."