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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter says the Wii U optimistically will sell around 40- 45 M units LTD.

S.T.A.G.E. on 13 January 2013
pezus said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
pezus said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
pezus said:
I would say that's probably my low end (40m). This won't come near 100m though like Wii. So I'll say 40-80m, depending entirely on Nintendo games.


Did you factor in third party support? Nintendo was only the market leader because of casual appeal. Pachter said himself, the majority of the people who initially bought the Wii U judging by game sales were core Nintendo gamers. The rest own other consoles, which resulted in low support for games like Call of Duty.

I think I can see already where the 3rd party support is going, so this depends entirely on 1st party support. If they can make another Wii Sports-like game, 80m is possible.

 

Without the same casual crowd, I dont see 80 m happening at all.

That's still 20m less than Wii, and is my high end if all goes very well . 60m sounds reasonable I think. First year should be sub 10m, but after that 10-13m with the usual Marios, MKs etc. They also have a bit more room for price cuts this gen than last gen, so maybe it won't run out of steam as early.

So you're saying the Wii will still have major casual appeal even though their launch audience is mostly hardcore based on sales?



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chriscox1121 on 13 January 2013

im gonna go low end 60m and high end 80 mill. but it's a guessing game at this point.




Tarumon on 13 January 2013

http://www.statista.com/markets/14/topic/114/video-games-gaming/chart/343/nintendo-s-home-console-sales/

For the past 3 Nintendo consoles, year 1 was not a good indication of life time sales but year 2 definitely was either the peak or led to the peak. 3DS' 3rd year might be Wiiesque.

Wii U needs some fire power this year or Pachter might be right.



chriscox1121 on 13 January 2013
S.T.A.G.E. said:
pezus said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
pezus said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
pezus said:
I would say that's probably my low end (40m). This won't come near 100m though like Wii. So I'll say 40-80m, depending entirely on Nintendo games.


Did you factor in third party support? Nintendo was only the market leader because of casual appeal. Pachter said himself, the majority of the people who initially bought the Wii U judging by game sales were core Nintendo gamers. The rest own other consoles, which resulted in low support for games like Call of Duty.

I think I can see already where the 3rd party support is going, so this depends entirely on 1st party support. If they can make another Wii Sports-like game, 80m is possible.

 

Without the same casual crowd, I dont see 80 m happening at all.

That's still 20m less than Wii, and is my high end if all goes very well . 60m sounds reasonable I think. First year should be sub 10m, but after that 10-13m with the usual Marios, MKs etc. They also have a bit more room for price cuts this gen than last gen, so maybe it won't run out of steam as early.

So you're saying the Wii will still have major casual appeal even though their launch audience is mostly hardcore based on sales?

I think Nintendo can capture that audience in the next 2 years, but if they don't it could be trouble.  The casuals won't come until 250 and lower imo.




S.T.A.G.E. on 13 January 2013
Gamerace said:
As always Pachtner is way off base.

I'd say 30m with 35m being optomistic. Once other systems come on the market I expect WiiU sales to resemble GC sales.


The way Nintendo has positioned itself with its audience and functions, I can see it doubling the GC sales and no less. 40-45 M is more than generous the way third parties are responding to Nintendo as well. If the PS4 and 720 leave the Wii U in the dust as far as multimedia, online community and exclusives the Wii U will become a secondary console only purchased for exclusives like the GC and the N64 before it.



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M.U.G.E.N on 13 January 2013

this means it will sell 400 million now! :P

but no seriously too early to tell...he does not have enough information to make any reasonable estimates at this point



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chriscox1121 on 13 January 2013
Tarumon said:
http://www.statista.com/markets/14/topic/114/video-games-gaming/chart/343/nintendo-s-home-console-sales/

For the past 3 Nintendo consoles, year 1 was not a good indication of life time sales but year 2 definitely was either the peak or led to the peak. 3DS' 3rd year might be Wiiesque.

Wii U needs some fire power this year or Pachter might be right.


I agree, Nintendo really needs to established the U this Christmas and use it as a spring board going into 2014 with big software titles and perhaps a few exclusive surprises.  




S.T.A.G.E. on 13 January 2013
Tarumon said:
http://www.statista.com/markets/14/topic/114/video-games-gaming/chart/343/nintendo-s-home-console-sales/

For the past 3 Nintendo consoles, year 1 was not a good indication of life time sales but year 2 definitely was either the peak or led to the peak. 3DS' 3rd year might be Wiiesque.

Wii U needs some fire power this year or Pachter might be right.


If Pokemon releases the 3DS will have a great year for sure, but thats the 3DS. The DS/Gameboy has always been Nintendos most attractive mode of gaming here and abroad in Japan. Nintendos main consoles have always been secondary in sales until the Wii came.



chriscox1121 on 13 January 2013
S.T.A.G.E. said:
Gamerace said:
As always Pachtner is way off base.

I'd say 30m with 35m being optomistic. Once other systems come on the market I expect WiiU sales to resemble GC sales.


The way Nintendo has positioned itself with its audience and functions, I can see it doubling the GC sales and no less. 40-45 M is more than generous the way third parties are responding to Nintendo as well. If the PS4 and 720 leave the Wii U in the dust as far as multimedia, online community and exclusives the Wii U will become a secondary console only purchased for exclusives like the GC and the N64 before it.

you could be correct, but I still think it's too early to tell.  After this year it will be very telling; wii has established itself as a very strong brand.  The next two christmas' could be very good for Nintendo especially if we have a 249.99 console.   




Conegamer on 13 January 2013

So it's going to be a success, 90mil minimum!

I see 75mil being the benchmark



 

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