Pachter says the Wii U optimistically will sell around 40- 45 M units LTD.

[S.T.A.G.E.]

pezus said:

S.T.A.G.E. said:

pezus said:

S.T.A.G.E. said:

pezus said:
I would say that's probably my low end (40m). This won't come near 100m though like Wii. So I'll say 40-80m, depending entirely on Nintendo games.

Did you factor in third party support? Nintendo was only the market leader because of casual appeal. Pachter said himself, the majority of the people who initially bought the Wii U judging by game sales were core Nintendo gamers. The rest own other consoles, which resulted in low support for games like Call of Duty.

I think I can see already where the 3rd party support is going, so this depends entirely on 1st party support. If they can make another Wii Sports-like game, 80m is possible.

 

Without the same casual crowd, I dont see 80 m happening at all.

That's still 20m less than Wii, and is my high end if all goes very well . 60m sounds reasonable I think. First year should be sub 10m, but after that 10-13m with the usual Marios, MKs etc. They also have a bit more room for price cuts this gen than last gen, so maybe it won't run out of steam as early.

So you're saying the Wii will still have major casual appeal even though their launch audience is mostly hardcore based on sales?