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Forums - Sales Discussion - Gen-over-gen marketshare report

psrock on 20 December 2012
Squilliam said:
psrock said:
Squilliam said:
psrock said:
Can those who believe MS will win next Gen show me how, just how this going to happen.

Microsoft has been a more successful publisher than Sony and have made better picks for 3rd party exclusivity. Though whether this will continue is debateable.

Microsft has a still viable motion controller whereas Nintendo has effectively abandoned theirs so they may have an advantage with parts of the casual market next generation. They also have the ability to mimmick many of Nintendo's own innovations with Smartglass. They have the option to expand Kinect into more than games with education and shopping also potentially being killer apps.

Microsoft likely has a more loyal online userbase than Sony and Nintendo because many of the people whom joined up over competing services did so because of better social services like party chat, teaming up, and good voice communication so having friends on  the service is likely more important. Since it is easier to play with friends on Live the people who value it are the ones whom want to play with friends vs those who just want to play against anyone/randoms.

Microsoft has a lot more money than Sony and a greater willingness to spend it than Nintendo. Microsoft is taking a beating on their home front of Windows because of the encroachment of Android and Apple which makes the EDD or whatever they call it nowadays an important segment of their business as it contains their hardware, mobile and console elements which are all very important growth areas both in terms of bolstering the Windows part of the business and in expanding into new areas. They have every incentive to give as many resources as possible to this division. They have the nasty combination of incentive and ability.

Everything you just said works in two countries.

 Kinect: It went from the fastest selling product to a non issue. And it sold most of it in the US.

Live: It lost the reason for paying for it years ago. People have moved on from way more popular social network (MySpace), this is nothing.

As far as marketing, big launches won't win generation. 

Kinect is still important because it is still selling. If people still want to buy Kinect then Kinect 2.0 ought to be a reasonably viable choice as well. It is something unique and likely as valuable at the moment to Microsoft as the Halo franchise if not more so given the slight decline in the fortunes of Halo over the generation. They can solve the issues of the space requirement, finger tracking, 4 people tracking and reliability of voice/gestures with the march of technological progress. I think of Kinect as another important franchise like Wii Sports. It is something unique and therefore they can address an exclusive part of the market like for instance how Nintendo has a core fanbase who rabidly buys their titles.

I wouldn't say that everything applies to two countries. Just because Microsoft hasn't sold as well as Sony in say Europe doesn't mean that they won't sell a good number of consoles in that region. The Xbox 360 lead over the PS3 in the U.S.A is more significant than the deficit to the PS3 in Europe. We have Europe at 23-28M and U.S.A. at 38-23M respectively. The European market is also complicated further by the greater penetration of PC gaming and the Valve console if it ever releases is likely to be more successful there as well.

Overall I would say that Microsoft is my pick as the one to beat in the next generation because they are strong in some big markets and they have the money and experience now to expand to other nations as well.

 

The PS2 is still selling, heck Sony shipped more move this year than MS kinect, but they are still a non issue. Kinect hasn't caught on outside of the United States. I do expect MS to lead in the US, but the wildcard is Japan. MS, Sony will sell everywhere, but the 720 won't be a factor in japan. Can Sony take advantage. 

I expect Nintendo to lead early, MS to have a big splash , Sony to finish strong.

 



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
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Squilliam on 20 December 2012
psrock said:
Squilliam said:

Kinect is still important because it is still selling. If people still want to buy Kinect then Kinect 2.0 ought to be a reasonably viable choice as well. It is something unique and likely as valuable at the moment to Microsoft as the Halo franchise if not more so given the slight decline in the fortunes of Halo over the generation. They can solve the issues of the space requirement, finger tracking, 4 people tracking and reliability of voice/gestures with the march of technological progress. I think of Kinect as another important franchise like Wii Sports. It is something unique and therefore they can address an exclusive part of the market like for instance how Nintendo has a core fanbase who rabidly buys their titles.

I wouldn't say that everything applies to two countries. Just because Microsoft hasn't sold as well as Sony in say Europe doesn't mean that they won't sell a good number of consoles in that region. The Xbox 360 lead over the PS3 in the U.S.A is more significant than the deficit to the PS3 in Europe. We have Europe at 23-28M and U.S.A. at 38-23M respectively. The European market is also complicated further by the greater penetration of PC gaming and the Valve console if it ever releases is likely to be more successful there as well.

Overall I would say that Microsoft is my pick as the one to beat in the next generation because they are strong in some big markets and they have the money and experience now to expand to other nations as well.

 

The PS2 is still selling, heck Sony shipped more move this year than MS kinect, but they are still a non issue. Kinect hasn't caught on outside of the United States. I do expect MS to lead in the US, but the wildcard is Japan. MS, Sony will sell everywhere, but the 720 won't be a factor in japan. Can Sony take advantage. 

I expect Nintendo to lead early, MS to have a big splash , Sony to finish strong.

 

Japan is less of a factor every generation. The ROTW (rest of the world) market isn't very well understood so whilst Sony is strong in ROTW they usually play an important part later in the generation when the overall market has been decided. Digital distribution will reduce Sony's logistical advantage in smaller countries/2nd world countries. It will be the early adopters in Europe, North America and Oceania which will decide whether a particular console will establish an unassailable lead and the rest of the world will likely follow.



Tease.

psrock on 20 December 2012
Squilliam said:
psrock said:
Squilliam said:

Kinect is still important because it is still selling. If people still want to buy Kinect then Kinect 2.0 ought to be a reasonably viable choice as well. It is something unique and likely as valuable at the moment to Microsoft as the Halo franchise if not more so given the slight decline in the fortunes of Halo over the generation. They can solve the issues of the space requirement, finger tracking, 4 people tracking and reliability of voice/gestures with the march of technological progress. I think of Kinect as another important franchise like Wii Sports. It is something unique and therefore they can address an exclusive part of the market like for instance how Nintendo has a core fanbase who rabidly buys their titles.

I wouldn't say that everything applies to two countries. Just because Microsoft hasn't sold as well as Sony in say Europe doesn't mean that they won't sell a good number of consoles in that region. The Xbox 360 lead over the PS3 in the U.S.A is more significant than the deficit to the PS3 in Europe. We have Europe at 23-28M and U.S.A. at 38-23M respectively. The European market is also complicated further by the greater penetration of PC gaming and the Valve console if it ever releases is likely to be more successful there as well.

Overall I would say that Microsoft is my pick as the one to beat in the next generation because they are strong in some big markets and they have the money and experience now to expand to other nations as well.

 

The PS2 is still selling, heck Sony shipped more move this year than MS kinect, but they are still a non issue. Kinect hasn't caught on outside of the United States. I do expect MS to lead in the US, but the wildcard is Japan. MS, Sony will sell everywhere, but the 720 won't be a factor in japan. Can Sony take advantage. 

I expect Nintendo to lead early, MS to have a big splash , Sony to finish strong.

 

Japan is less of a factor every generation. The ROTW (rest of the world) market isn't very well understood so whilst Sony is strong in ROTW they usually play an important part later in the generation when the overall market has been decided. Digital distribution will reduce Sony's logistical advantage in smaller countries/2nd world countries. It will be the early adopters in Europe, North America and Oceania which will decide whether a particular console will establish an unassailable lead and the rest of the world will likely follow.

Japan is a huge factor and one Sony needs badly. Sony should try to sell at leastb10 million PS4 in the first 5 years, that would be enough to offset the 360 lead in the US, then market the shit out the PS4 in Europe. And avoid the year difference. 

 

 



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
Squilliam on 20 December 2012
psrock said:
Squilliam said:

Japan is less of a factor every generation. The ROTW (rest of the world) market isn't very well understood so whilst Sony is strong in ROTW they usually play an important part later in the generation when the overall market has been decided. Digital distribution will reduce Sony's logistical advantage in smaller countries/2nd world countries. It will be the early adopters in Europe, North America and Oceania which will decide whether a particular console will establish an unassailable lead and the rest of the world will likely follow.

Japan is a huge factor and one Sony needs badly. Sony should try to sell at leastb10 million PS4 in the first 5 years, that would be enough to offset the 360 lead in the US, then market the shit out the PS4 in Europe. And avoid the year difference. 

 

 

Nintendo will probably dominate Sony in their domestic market. The 3DS is 8:1 over the Vita and the Wii U will have a years sales advantage. Given the smaller size of the Japanese market the Wii U will be a natural fit for scope of their domestic games market given the cross compatibility with handhelds and the smaller development costs which are critical for addressing a smaller market.

Microsoft needed a years head start over the PS3 this generation but they don't need it anymore. People simply won't assume that FF, GTA, MGS etc will be exclusive to the PS4 at the start and the brand advantage Sony has is signifcantly smaller this time around and what remains of the difference could easily be mitigated by spending $$$$ between subsidised hardware or significant advertising and cross promotion.



Tease.

Argh_College on 20 December 2012
FaintZ said:
I think Sony will gain some % more next gen ( from Nintendo).
MS will hold it´s market share.
Nintendo will not repeat their success with the Wii (which isn´t necesseary for Nintendo).
-> I expect something like 33.33 % for everyone ;)

we dont know yet how Wii U will do



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MoHasanie on 20 December 2012

Well, I think the PS3 should have done much much better this generation because it was launching from a Playstation brand that was HUGE and was probably peaking around that time. Unfortunately Sony made mistakes this generation, and the size of the playstation brand has diminished. So people predicting PS4 to suddenly have huge sales again are nuts! Xbox has clearly taken away a segment of the Playstation fan base.
Also, even in Japan where PS3 fans seem to use that as a "huge" advantage over Xbox, isn't that big of an advantage, mainly because Japan is becoming a smaller market, and the PS4 will face intense competition from Nintendo.

Having said that, we certainly can't predict how any console will do. I mean, Microsoft says the 360 sold 70+ million units, but how many of those were bought as replacements for older units that got the RROD? This is actually a very important point, because it can give us a closer figure as to how many 360 users there actually are. We usually here the figure of 40 million Xbox live accounts from Microsoft a lot, so maybe there are 40 million Xbox units in operation today? If this were true, then it would give the 360 a much smaller market share then the PS3. Also, I know a lot of people that bought a PS3 after their Xbox broke, so perhaps the PS3 got an increase in sales from Microsoft's faliure, and this should not happen next generation. 



    

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BluGamer23 on 20 December 2012

lol @ MS to dominate.. you mayans should stop predicting things... =)




 

 

thismeintiel on 20 December 2012

The thing MS fans seem to not want to realize is that the 360 doing so well was largely due to Sony's mistakes with the PS3. It was $200 more expensive at launch compared to the 360, a price advantage MS made sure to keep in place for the first few years of the PS3's life. Sony probably could have done a lot more to help 3rd party developers come to terms with the new architecture, something that lead to ~2 years of poor ports. MS has to be given props for making great decisions this gen to keep it in front of the PS3 (pricing, 1st party and 3rd party suport, and great marketing). However, even with Sony's mistakes and MS's good decisions, the PS3 is on course to overtake the 360 within 1-1 1/2 years. This speaks volumes about the strength of the PS brand.

Given the above, imagine how next gen will turn out given that Sony and MS will probably be launching within 6 months of each other (not the 1-1 1/2 years advantage MS had last gen) and with a launch price within ~$50-$100 of each other. This scenario is looking very good for the PS4. In terms of regions, I think Sony will definitely take EU by a good margin (partly thanks to GT), Japan will be probably be a tight race between Sony and Nintendo (Wii U may slightly edge it out), and Americas will be a tight race between MS and Sony (NeXbox may slightly edge it out). As for final marketshare, I see it playing out like this:

PS4: ~40%
NeXbox: ~32%
Wii U: ~28%



 

psrock on 20 December 2012
Squilliam said:
psrock said:
Squilliam said:

Japan is less of a factor every generation. The ROTW (rest of the world) market isn't very well understood so whilst Sony is strong in ROTW they usually play an important part later in the generation when the overall market has been decided. Digital distribution will reduce Sony's logistical advantage in smaller countries/2nd world countries. It will be the early adopters in Europe, North America and Oceania which will decide whether a particular console will establish an unassailable lead and the rest of the world will likely follow.

Japan is a huge factor and one Sony needs badly. Sony should try to sell at leastb10 million PS4 in the first 5 years, that would be enough to offset the 360 lead in the US, then market the shit out the PS4 in Europe. And avoid the year difference. 

 

 

Nintendo will probably dominate Sony in their domestic market. The 3DS is 8:1 over the Vita and the Wii U will have a years sales advantage. Given the smaller size of the Japanese market the Wii U will be a natural fit for scope of their domestic games market given the cross compatibility with handhelds and the smaller development costs which are critical for addressing a smaller market.

Microsoft needed a years head start over the PS3 this generation but they don't need it anymore. People simply won't assume that FF, GTA, MGS etc will be exclusive to the PS4 at the start and the brand advantage Sony has is signifcantly smaller this time around and what remains of the difference could easily be mitigated by spending $$$$ between subsidised hardware or significant advertising and cross promotion.

Can we stop looking at Vita sales to predict PS4, very different situation. And the PS3 is doing better than Vita, heck PSP is doing better. I doubt PS4 will have then support vita has gotten.



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
Laurel Aitken on 20 December 2012

I hope we will see a gen like this. Three great competitor doing 70+ numbers.

I'll hope something like:
Nintendo 30%
Sony 33%
Microsoft 37%

I also think it will be the last console gen as we know it...