By 2020, how do you think each of the big 3 will be doing (Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo). I'm not talking specifically about their performance in gaming, but as companies in general. Try to be as detailed as possible. This will be fun.

Microsoft - I think by 2020 they'll own the living room in the western world with a Windows OS device which can be used to access TV, used in gaming, used to surf the net and used for apps like Netflix, etc. They'll have a healthy chunk of the smartphone market (~30%) and they'll be the biggest player in the tablet market (~50%). Nokia will help propel Windows Phone into the mainstream and HTC and Samsung won't be far behind with their Windows Phones. They'll still have no significant competition in the PC software market and they'll HOPEFULLY start 'Microsoft Film Studios' to release blockbuster Halo movies.

Sony - I think Sony will struggle to regain its foothold in the electronics market, as they'll be unable to compete with Samsung and the like on price or quality. A takeover from another Japanese or Korean firm is a major possibility, but I think they'll pretty much just stay as they are but be a much smaller company than they were in their 90's hay day. 

Nintendo - I think their consoles and handhelds will struggle over the upcoming years due to fierce competition with smartphones and tablets. Due to this, I think that from 2015-2018 they'll start to release their games on iOS, Android and Windows devices. By 2020 they'll be a software only company, but they'll still be massively successful due to the popularity of Pokemon and Mario on smartphones and tablets.

I think consoles will not survive another gen and will converge with prebuilt PCs, because only Intel, TSMC, Nvidia and whoever buys AMD graphics will be around to compete on high-end parts and the cost of custom designs will be too high.

MS wants this to happen anyway, Windows on everything. But I don't think Windows phones or tablets will have respectable share or influence/
Sony won't have a standalone console. Most immediately Vita will be cancelled with no replacement in early 2014.
Nintendo will, as well as a handheld and their first party games will be limited to it, but they will be essentially alone in the market. I don't think they would ever concede to putting their games on non-Nintendo hardware as long as the power belongs to a small group of businessmen like Yamauchi instead of the general market.

Most third parties will have gone bankrupt or merged. EA and Activision will be PC exclusive developers.

Tagging this to check back in 2020.

VGChartz won't be alive in 2020. ioi can't track consoles that don't exist! Or can he...?

Damn it. Yea digital sales would be hard to track. Will have to get Vgcharts pro account to access the sales. Not a bad prediction MBP

I think you are right on the general direction things are going but a lot of it depends on aspects of the market that could change really quickly and on unpredictable ways when you are measuring things over a span of eight years.

One point that remains to be seen is the general health of japanese companies. Right now, due to Japan being a high-saving and stable economy, the Yen is one of the most overvalued currencies in the entire planet; it's overvalued 92% compared to the korean Won! Think about what it means for Nintendo and Sony compared to Samsung. On practice, half the profits overseas for products with similar profit margins. Long term the Yen should lose value and the Won gain value, putting their nominal values roughly on par with what the money can actually purchase. So things will get better for Ninty and Sony and worse for Samsung. Relatively speaking.

Another question is whether the approach of Microsoft, Samsung or Apple is going to prevail as far as interactive TVs and media centers go. Or Google's, you can bet they are going to try it too. Some chinese company will probably be making an impression, too. It's hard to say... the fates of a lot of companies could depend on whether they succeed on world's newest largest economy, China. Success on the western world will no longer matter as much, specially if you get, on those countries, a sober, more refrained market after the successive crisis this decade.

Anyways yeah, I'm undoubtely wrong... everyone who predicts the future is. But where, when, on what scale? I'm sure more and more of gaming is going to be transferred towards smartphones and tablets and interactive TVs and PCs and consoles are going to lose importance... but beyond that? Who knows.

Sony will die a firey death.

personally, I think one of the big three will be pushed out by a new contender. I see Apple, Samsung, or both getting into the home console market within the next decade. I'm actually kind of surprised Apple hasn't pushed their way in yet... and since Samsung is so excellent at copying everything, I see their entry as inevitable...

the reason is probably because these companies are striving for growth. Even though xbox has been a success it hasn't really grown microsoft like investors hoped.

So even if apple is successful with a console, it won't increase their overall worth. The money could theoretically be invested on something else with more potential. 

There could be huge potential for Apple to get into the home console business.  They have dabbled a little bit into home media with apple tv, however they would have a lot more success with home penetration if they had a mutlti media device.  Couple a mutli media device with Itunes and there are huge potential benefits for Apple.  

It is an obvious target for Apple to grow their current business.  The problem isn't that Apple is just striving for growth, because this is an obvious path for growth.  The problem is that Apple likes to create new markets, at least going by their recent trends.  They basically created the mp3 market with the ipod, basically put smartphones on the map with the iphone, and created the tablet computer market with the ipad.  

Still, I see them eventually getting pushed into the home console market.  Personally, I believe they will upgrade their apple tv for gaming as a soft option to test the market, and then launch a fully realized console soon after if the results are favorable.  

Samsung is just a question of when...