wfz said: The problem is that the developer side of this industry is split into two groups:
1) Those who want to develop the highest tech and most badass complex games possible
2) Those who are focusing on new experiences on phones/tablets
Wii U falls into the middle category. Very few developers care for it. They might, however, if/when the high end market crashes under its own pressure. |
There is a truth that you will become aware of if you're not entirely already, and that is "software dictates hardware, and hardware dictates software." Software always pushes the hardware boundaries forcing hardware upgrades. In turn, the hardware can not only restrict software but also free it depending on where the software falls in the hardware cycle. This has always been the case, and this will always be the case.
There will never be an instance where the high-end game market crashes under it's own pressure. The high-end games will always perpetuate the hardware cycle. Developers will always push the bounds of the hardware and hardware manufacturers will always strive to advance it.
I'm not sure under what circumstances you believe "the high-end market crashes under it's own pressure"? You're either under the misguided notion that software doesn't advance or advances very slowly and that would be rather erroneous. If you believe the consolidation is the result of excessive costs of development, then you're under the misguided notion that cost of development is stagnant. It isn't, and it never has been. The cost to move from 4K to 16K, from monochrome to 4 color, from 16-bit to 32-bit, or from DOS to Windows all had costs associated with them that increased the cost of gaming. It's not different then than it is today. Developers will push the hardware boundaries creating new experiences, those new experiences mature while at the same time developers begin pushing hardware beyond what its capable of or dreaming of how to.
Not to make it sound like the hardware engineers are dolts. They aren't. Not in the least. They know pretty much what the hardware is capable of, they play a wait and see game to see what software developers can do, but at the same time they need to see what they can and can't do to see what the next level of hardware needs.
A great example of this is 4 color gaming. At the time computers were generally in the realm of business or education. Very little graphic gaming took place, and considering most computers were monochrome and the majority of monitors were green screens it didn't need to be anything different. With the advent of 4 color gaming things changed and relatively quickly. Within a few years time the majority of computers sold went from being sold with a monochrome display adapter and monitor to being sold with a 4 color CGA monitor. Games went from being black and white text adventure games, to simplistic (by todays standards) graphical games. Developers are technologists, just like hardware people. While there are a group of them that would like to perpetually do the same thing, there is a much more significantly larger group of developers and graphic artists that wan to push the boundaries. That latter group will always strive for the next level of gaming.
If, however you assume that gamers will revolt, I sincerely doubt that as well. As in every category of humanity, there is a group of people that always want the next level, that always want to push the boundaries and they will always be early adopters when possible.
Virtual/augmented reality gaming will be the next step in gaming. The technology has advanced to the point where the hardware is now consumer friendly. While Sony is moving toward a traditional VAR experience, Microsoft is definitely pushing the boundaries with their projection system. In 20 years VAR gaming will be common place regardless of whether or not it's glasses only, or a 3D projection system. That will undoubtedly increase the cost of developing games, but the reality is that consumers as technologists will want it.
It is man's innate desire to push to new heights. Adam had a choice to take a bite of an apple or not, it was his desire to know the unanswerable questions that propelled him to take a bite. We went to the moon because of our desires to push the boundaries. We launched probes into space because of our desire to know, to push the boundaries.
I'm quite confident that there will never come a day when high-end gaming crushes under the weight of it's own pressure to strive for the next great thing. Development studios may come and go, and developers with them, but each generation of developer builds on the success and failures of the previous one.