The profit model doesn't only work for third parties. As you just said, first party games quite often are expected to move hardware. On the other hand, first party games are also quite often not expected to move hardware, especially when you're extremely late in the generation. Sometimes, games are released simply to satisfy the already established fanbase. Though this is typically only the case for Sony.

I take it you agree that forumers expectations are completely useless then?

exactly!  the only thing that matters is how much fun is it.

For me a flop would be Fzero GX, 650k for a well known franchise with high production value
The ultimate bomba would be Conduit 2

I don't think you can have a standard for something that is so varied ...

When you have small developers producing low budget games for the Wii and gigantic developers producing big budget games for the HD consoles the budgets of the games are different by an order of magnitude, and realistic sales expectations are drastically different. Publishers (often) fund those low budget games because they know that if they produce enough of them some of them will be successful enough to cover the losses on unsuccessful games, and they will create an IP which can be used in future games; and the big budget blockbuster is funded because the publisher expects that, with enough marketing, they will be able to turn a massive profit on the game.

Essentially, if you produced 10 games to have 1 breakout success, 2 moderate successes, 2 games break even, and 5 games sell poorly it is difficult to call any of those games a "flop"; but if you took your best development team, had them work for 3 years with a budget of $30 Million, and then you released the game with a $20 Million marketing budget and only broke even with 2 Million sales it could be seen as a massive disappointment/flop for that company.

Expectations.

If not, ps3 itself is an MASSIVELY ENORMOUS ONE!!!

Not only did it suck all the ps2's profit, it's only starting to make profit now.

Sony defense squad in 5....4...3..2.1

Ultimately, expectations. Gaming is not a passive medium. Its not like a critically panned video games will go on to sell 3m plus, or a hyped up game with great reviews barely sells 1m, this happens in Hollywood on a monthly basis.

However, the word flop is too strong. It happens so rarely that it shouldn't even be considered to describe the performance of a game. Flop should only be reserved when everything, from pre release hype, forum buzz, youtube trailer views, metacritic and ultimately sales are low, recent examples being Medal of Honor and Resident Evil 6.

''Did not meet expectations'' is the best way to describe games overall, example being fan favorite Gears of War 3, which fans expected 6-7m, but it has barely broke 5.6m

While forum goers opinions do not make or break companies figures, it will give the game its lasting reputation. 

Although I agree that the profit method makes more sense I don't think we could use it. How do we know what the publishers wanted from the game? How do we know if it was profitable? The Forum expectations method (well, our own expectations) is the only way we can do it. We each have to decide on our own what is and what isn't a flop and why. It would be nice if everyone could be reasonable and actually think there expectations through, but I don't think that's a safe bet.

You're best chance at finding peace in this matter is to just keep track of the people who are reliable and reasonable in these matter and the people who arn't and just ignore the latter.

Happy posting.

No here knows the budgets of these games so no one can determine profit, which is ironic considering that's is the only thing that matters IMO to determine if its a flop or not

It depends on market conditions, the goal of the seller (revenue maximisation or profit maximisation), sales expectations and the sales of similar products.

People use the term flop way, way too often, without really knowing if something is or not. They rush to label, usually because they're looking for childish ammunition in fanboy scuffles. The classic, "I heard some people on the forums talking about wanting it, so it's HYPED THROUGH THE ROOF," is an especially face-palm-worthy little piece of propaganda.

In my opinion, something much clearly meet all criteria, not either/or, to be defined as a flop. If there is major doubt or dissension, then it's not.