From looking at the prediction Fred I made, the general consensus seems to be that Ninty shipped 500k+ Wii U's in the USA for its 1st week. However, from looking at this weeks pre-order chart, the most highly pre-ordered Wii U launch game is NSMBU with 114,207 copies.

Given that 95%+ (MBP's estimation) of Wii U's shipments were pre-ordered, it's seems strange to me that there are such low pre-order numbers for the launch games. The other day I saw someone say that they expect 50% of Wii U buyers to buy NSMBU as a launch game, which seems like a reasonable % to me. So if 114,207 are pre-ordering NSMBU, then this indicates that ~230,000 have pre-ordered the Wii U in the US.

Are VGChartz NSMBU numbers (along with all other Wii U launch titles) undertracked? Or are consumers simply pre-ordering the Wii U and buying launch games like NSMBU when they collect their pre-order (aka not actually pre-ordering it)?

Have we overestimated the Wii U's 1st week shipments in the US and they've actually shipped around 250k-300k?

you do have a point, but considering that zombiU and nintendo land (right?) were the games bundled with the console its probably easier and more accurate to look at those games. since reports are saying that the WiiU pre orders are selling it, one would assume that pre orders for those games would be high

Faulty logic.
Pre-ordering a console does not imply the same for games. Most just get those in store. Additionally, I think you are wrong about the 95% on console pre-orders. I'd bet its closer to 70% as there are always extra stock at big retail locations at launch. Kinda why I got mine at midnight at Walmart (first in line!) and just gave my two pre-orders to family instead.

Nintendo games are less likely to be per-ordered compared to the console itself.

A console can sell out for months (like Wii) but how often have you heard of software selling out for months? Less need to pre-order.

trusting that number is your first mistake..

who the hell takes those pre order charts seriously? they're just way way off the mark. you cant base anything from them.

Just over 100k for a mario game? Lol no.

To add to what the others are saying, it won't be 50% of all WiiU buyers getting NSMBU.

Hmm...interesting.

Too close to call... We need some information more .