You're massively wrong. God of War is much bigger than Forza and Fable and it's never had to be massively bundled. Fable is a 2.5 - 4.0 million selling franchise and Forza is a 1.5 - 3.0 million selling franchise, Forza 2, 3 and Fable 2, 3 only sold so well due to mass bundling and God of War III is still way ahead of them at 5.2 million which Sony announced on the 30th May 2012, it's sold a lot more since then and is now roughly at 5.4m+.

The God of War games are 4.25 - 6.00 million sellers. God of War III will pass 6 million this gen easily as it's already at about 5.4-5.5m and there's a new budget essentials edition and the new Saga collection which has been selling VERY well. Not to mention God of War III was hardly bundled at all, released during a PS3 shortage and had a terrible marketing campaign and it still went on to be one of the biggest exclusives on HD consoles and the best selling game in its genre of all time. God of War: Ascension will also be a 5.5 - 6.5 million seller and will definitely pass 6 million unless the PS4 launches before Q4 2014 which would cut its legs short a little bit.

With the way the God of War franchise growing and the fact millions of people are already anxiously waiting for God of War IV (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOwCvW_4x_k 6.4 million views or http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUY1MeMaFVU with 4 million views and there's more fake videos with millions of views) even though God of War: Ascension has been announced as the next game in the series, GoW4 is going to be the biggest in the series yet selling 6.5 - 7.5 million and will be a HUGE system seller. 

And God of War is bigger than Uncharted as well; UC2 was bundled a lot, has had an extra xmas holiday and is 6 months older and yet GoW3 is only about 300-400K behind and is catching up. UC3 is the most bundled game on HD consoles this generation and once the game stops being bundled sales will slow down considerably and it is unlikely to pass UC2 by a significant margin if at all. Uncharted is really only a medium-high tier 3.5 - 4.5 million selling franchise if it wasn't bundled so massively, I don't know why some people think it's a big franchise when it's really not at all. Are Resistance: FoM, MotorStorm and LittleBigPlanet huge sellers? No, they sold 4-5 million because of mass bundling just like Uncharted 2 & 3 sold a lot mainly because of bundles, yet I rarely see people criticise Uncharted's sales for depending heavily on bundles like they do other games.

Gran Tursimo and God of War are Sony's most popular and beloved franchises, both are huge system sellers. Uncharted and LittleBigPlanet are big sellers and will help shift a lot of consoles. Resistance, Killzone and Infamous are decent/good sellers but are unlikely to help boost console sales much. Some new IPs could help the PS4 but it'll most likely be sequels to existing franchises that will help push PS4 sales most around the first year on sale, if the new IPs are successful and get sequels then they could be big system sellers for the PS4. 

God of War, Uncharted, Gran Turismo and LBP are the system sellers (not so sure about LBP, but it seems likely). But there isn't a game that will make any of the big 3 win next-gen. To win, you need a combination of situations that will be favorable to you.

Actually, even Nintendo franchises can't solve everything. Gamecube proves that. A good price point, third-part support, some nice exclusives and extra features are the most important here.

Firstly, I never said it was as big as Mario or Wii Fit. I said it was comparable to Halo.

Secondly, GT5 released four years after the PS3 launched. Of course, it wouldn't cause a drastic upsurge in sales. That doesn't mean it wouldn't be a console mover if it released 1-2 years into the PS3's life. Halo 3 had the benefit of releasing only 2 years after the 360 launch, yet it still didn't cause a huge surge in sales. Using your logic, if GT isn't a console mover, then Halo definitely isn't.

Also, one could make the argument that GT5 did cause at least a moderate effect in hardware sales. The year GT5 released (2010), the PS3 sold the most ever. And the next year, when GT5 was available for the entire year, the PS3 sold even more. Keep in mind the game released six years after launch. Imagine the impact if would have if it released near the console's launch. 

As for GT versus Halo. If you compare GT5 sales with Halo: Reach's sales, both of which released in 2010, you'll notice the difference is incredibly small. Halo Reach has sold 9.3 million. And GT5 has sold just under 9 million. Moreover, GT5 has been outselling Reach for the entire year, and it's possible that it's going to overtake Reach eventually. So, if Halo is bigger than Gran Turismo, it's by a very small magnitude.

Sony doesnt have great-selling titles but they have a lot of middling selling titles and Im sure they will make sure to have some of these at launch. Assuming that the ps4 launches at the end of 2013 - I can see them having a Infamous 3, UC4 and Killzone 4 title at launch. If they manage to get any 3rd party exclusives timed or otherwise (japanese) to launch along with it, then it could be a very attractive buy. Especially as it will likely not be priced too high AND will come with a blue-ray like the ps3.

Edit: And I agree with some of the other posts - if they initiate ps+ at launch for the console, they could have a very attractive console for those budget-conscious gamers who want games but wouldnt want to pay the hundreds of dollars to get them. 

Not unless Sony buys Activision from Vivendi.

GT is huge in Europe.
Halo is only huge in America.

Mario is huge everywhere, even in Japan.

I would say Gran Turismo is big enough by far

It just doesn't seem that way because it's strongest pull is in Europe.

Game sells around ~10 million on average.

God of War and Uncharted 4?   Not on their own, but they can pull a little themselves.   Uncharted can probably reach up to about Zelda level... God of War not as much... but still enough to move the needle a bit.

I agree with most of this. Uncharted is big franchise though. With the amount of bundling the games have gotten, the franchise is well known. I think an Uncharted 4 could easily sell PS4s. If done right, a Killzone 4 could also do the trick, but it can't go head to head with a Call of Duty title.

Using the Vita isn't really an accurate way to see how big of a system seller Uncharted is.

Firstly, the Uncharted IP, like most console IPs, is meant for consoles. People aren't going to buy a portable FOR Uncharted when there is a superior version on the PS3. A big game on home consoles wouldn't necessarily be a big game on portables. I'd go out on a limb and say that even Call of Duty: Declassified will see 'low' sales and won't push the Vita to success. It may even sell less than Uncharted. Does that mean Call of Duty isn't a system seller? Of course not. People just aren't going to buy it when there's a better alternative. Really, this has been discussed a lot already. Portables don't do well with console-suited games, nor do console-suited games do well on portables. Forming analysis of a console IP based off of portable sales is terribly flawed.

Also, Golden Abyss simply isn't as good as Naughty Dog's games. It's metascore is 80. That's almost a C-level game. A franchise can have system-selling power, but that doesn't mean that the lower-quality titles will move consoles.

Lastly, The Vita simply isn't attractive. The console is over-priced (from a consumers perspective) and it has little to no known games. And Sony's marketing hasn't been exactly stellar either. Uncharted is the only moderately large IP on the Vita. Aside from maybe 2D Mario, no IP is big enough to single-handedly push an utterly unattractive console into success. The console has to at least have a few other incentives in games and/or price, even  for a system seller (unless it's 2D Mario). The Vita doesn't need just a system seller, it needs a miracle. That is one thing that Uncharted is not.

And even with those things considered, Uncharted: GA is still the best selling Vita game by a wide margin. One in four Vita owners own Uncharted. That figure is probably a lot higher when considering digital purchases. Uncharted has definitely been a big factor in a lot of Vita sales. Sure, Uncharted couldn't bring the VIta to massive success. But without Uncharted, I fear the Vita would be a LOT worse than where it currently is. Did I forget to mention that Uncharted is a console IP, and not a portable IP? Imagine the impact Uncharted would have when launching with a home console.

I'm not saying Uncharted is a system seller to the magnitude of Halo or Mario, but we don't know yet. Uncharted didn't become 'big' until Uncharted 2. By then, the PS3 was three years old, much too late for any titles to push massive hardware, aside from Mario. However, 2009 was the PS3's biggest year at the time, so who knows how huge impactful Uncharted was? We don't have enough information to say whether or not it's a system seller. The one time it did release early in a console's life, it was extremely unestablished. And the Vita doesn't count for the reasons I said above. We'll see how big it is when the PS4 releases, but until then, I think it's at least as big as Zelda for pushing hardware. We'll have to wait and see though.

God of War III had similar disadvantages to Gran Turismo 5. It released in 2010, four years after the PS3's launch. At that moment in time, no one title outside of Mario (Halo included) would be able to move substantial hardware. It was simply too late for a large effect. That doesn't mean it didn't have any effect. GoW3 did cause quite a stir. Check out this graph.  Ps3's March sales were the highest in 2010. March 2010 was also the year when GoW3 release. Clearly GoW3 caused the surge in sales. Also, this was four years after the PS3 launch. Imagine the effect it would have if it released early in the console's life. Again, I'm not saying God Of War is a huge system selling, but it is definitely a contributing factor and shouldn't pushed to the side as meaningless.

God of War and Uncharted didn't have a chance to release early in a console's life after being established franchises. We'll see how they do with the PS4. I don't expect them to be huge individually, but collectively, they should have at least a moderate effect. And this is without considering Gran Turismo, which in itself is a game on par with Halo.

I need a new calculator