Just for the hell of it;
1: Other already covered this, but I'll chime in and say that being first doesn't mean much most of the time and certainly does not secure a sure win. Besides, getting a HD console on the market simply means that they will get to share more multiplats with the PS360 and not that it will have the market to itself, a fact overlooked by many. Nintendo are both starting and not starting the 8th generation simultaneously. Its basically starting a cycle where the PS360 has a 5-6 year head start.
2: Hmm, well yes but people have learned from this generation and won't make the mistake of overestimating a console so grossly again. Aren't you doing the exact same as Zelnick and Kaz here? Assuming a sure victory simply because the predecessor did well and won? Nintendo is not in a great position right now, contrary to popular belief and were effectively forced out of the gate first, not only revealing their hand but also stepping into perilous territory. It offers pretty much what the other have offered for over half a decade with a slight hardware upgrade, it costs more and has seemingly very poor support.
3: The launch line-up is strong simply due to 3rd party multiplats, games it shares with the PS360, so this hardly yields a massive advantage. It also lost out on the launch of the biggest game of the year; Black Ops 2, the PS360 will snag the vast majority of the sales of this title before and during the holidays. And the window after the launch, which is just as important, looks quite bleak. Old ports galore, according to most reports.
4: Touchscreen controls on a handheld device/phone/tablet and a home console are two very different things. For tradiotional gaming, touchscreen holds no advantages and the tablet might very well end up having the same impact as Move (i.e; virtually none). Core titles will still be biggest on the PS360 and they have solid and established online communities and services, an area where Nintento have a lot to learn and they are also very late to the party. Competing over core gamers with XBL will be a daunting task indeed. Ensuring that their service is "as close as possible" to PSN and XBL won't do much, it would have to be better and the PS360 will yet again be the primary choice of most core gamers. The Wii U could fall between two chairs when it comes to appeal and this is the main reason why I remain dead sure that it won't sell anywhere near as many units as the Wii in it's lifetime.
5: This is not an advantage for Nintendo, Sony and MS have been given the liberty to bide their time and build something competitive that could be tailor made to fight the Wii U, all the while already having viable consoles that compete on the same level and recieve a lot more support allround. When the next PS and x-box arrive, they will likely both launch at the same time and around this time of the year, stealing massive thunder and fully utilizing the huge 3rd party benefits they have built over the 7th gen (the x-box in particular). It is extremely likely that the PS4 and x-box 720 will not only be more powerful (not to mention a lot better storage capacity) but also offer more connectivity, more features, superb online that improves upon already proven concepts (PSN and XBL) and a launch line-up that will likely overshadow anything Nintendo can release within the same timeframe. You also need to factor in that the market is moving more quickly than before, possibly forcing Nintendo to launch their 9th gen console first and a repeat of the 7th generation's twilight.
Nintendo not only have to battle incoming consoles from Sony and MS, they also need to try to punch into the HD market that is already inhabited by almost 140 million consoles which are, by now, profitable, well established and very dominant in hardware sales. If anything, Nintendo aren't in a much better position than they were before the Wii launch; they need everything to go right to win the next bout but I think they have allowed to themselves to be stressed and pressured and have made some poor and odd decisions along the way.
Bottom line, in my view, the Wii U does not have an easy time ahead of it and will be hard pressed to sell more than 70-80 million units in the end given all the circumstances.
