Nintendo mentioned in their most recent earning report that they are predicting that the Wii will sell a total of 10.5 million unitls between October 1 and March 31 with 5.5 million being allocated to the Wii U.  With the system coming out in one week, Do you think nintendo will reach those goals?

Remember, at least from a stock market perception, its all about expectations.  If the Wii U is in no way similar to the Wii in its initital start and the Wii doesnt make up the slack, the stock will go down, no matter the sales.  If somehow the Wii U craze can match/exceed the original Wii launch and somehow that does not cannibalize the original Wii's shipment, then most likely the shares will rise.

You can comment on the Wii shipping 5 million (for FY 12), the wii u shipping 5.5 million (in 6 months) or both.

Wii Shipments 2008-2011 for the Oct-Dec/Jan-Mar + total quarter

2008 10.41m + 5.43m = 15.84 6 months ending March 31 2009

2009 11.31m + 3.47m =  14.78  6 months ending March 31 2010

2010  8.74m  +  1.37m =  10.11 6 months ending March 31 2011

2011  5.61m +  .86m   =     6.47 6 months ending March 31 2012

2012  ? Units + ? units =     3.68 6 months ending March 31 2013

Im sure it'll make it.

I worry that the current consumer atmosphere is hostile and the console might suffer low sales after the holiday season.

Im searching through Jacob old post about shipment numbers so I can add to the original OP to gague with Wii's sales for the 4th and 1st quarters. Ill add as i go along.

I dont know. There doesnt seem to be a lot of buzz about it where I am (nz). Then again I didnt see a lot of buzz around the Wii when it launched. I think it will do pretty well at launch. Whether it will reach 10M i dont know - maybe.

If i had to chose i would say yes
but i still have my reserves....

During Black Friday in 2011, 500,000 Wii's were sold and don't think that it will be any different this year. 5.5 million Wii U's sold is conservative in my opinion. There is a demand for a new console and obviously by what we are reading, alot of people are on the waiting list for the console, that's a first for any. I think the 3DS and Wii U is positioning itself to replicate the success of the DS and Wii. Let's hope it happens :)

There's no way they'll reach 5 million Wiis sold. It won't be as big during the holidays now it's being replaced, and after the holidays it will be pretty much dead.

Ill comment on the Wii first

Nintendo is expecting 6 months sales to decline 56% year on year to get that 3.68 million number. If i'm not mistaken, for the 10 months so far this year, year on year sales for the Wii in all regions (Japan US and Europe) show equal to that.

Rough VGChartz estimates have the wii currently down 52% year on year with the full month of October included:

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/250537/2012-year-on-year-sales-and-market-share-update-to-November-3rd/

So even if the number is remotely close, Nintendo will need to make up at least ~25 basis points just to cover their own projections in the next 5 months for the Wii.