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Rough VGChartz estimates have the wii currently down 52% year on year with the full month of October included:

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/250537/2012-year-on-year-sales-and-market-share-update-to-November-3rd/

So even if the number is remotely close, Nintendo will need to make up at least ~25 basis points just to cover their own projections in the next 5 months for the Wii.