EDIT: There is a typo in the poll. 2.6-3.9 obviously means 2.6-2.9. Not gonna restart the poll now.

If you see some incorrect information or would like me to add any different set of data, let me know.

Some facts (VGC nos., slightly rounded):

Current gap: 1,630,000----------------------------------------Last year's gap at the same point: 1,905,000

Gap at the end of 2010: 3,510,000------------------------Gap at the end of 2011: 3,070,000

PS3 sales Nov-Dec 2011: 5,490,000------------------------X360 sales Nov-Dec 2011: 6,650,000

Gap increase in Nov-Dec 2011: 1,160,000---------------Gap increase in Nov-Dec 2012: ???

PS3 YTD: 7,190,000 (-18%)------------------------------------X360 YTD: 5,560,000 (-22%)

2011 PS3 sales at the same point: 8,740,000-----------2011 X360 sales at the same point: 7,146,000

Other things to consider:

WiiU launches on Nov 18 in NA, Nov 30 in EU and Dec 8 in JP.

This is the PS3's 7th holiday season (6th in EU) and the X360's 8th holiday season.

PS3 redesign, X360 $50 price cut.

Halo 4, AC3, CoD: BO2

Kinect effect was strong in 2010 and 2011.

My analysis:

If we simply substract the YTD percentage drop from these consoles sales in Nov-Dec last year, we have a gap increase of almost 700,000 to about 2,3m.

The X360'll have some offers like the $50 cut and the PS3 the redesign, which for this calculation I'm going to assume will kind of cancel each other out.

I believe some factors play against X360:

-First, the fact that it's had one more holiday season than PS3 (two in EU, PS3's strongest market).

-Second, that the Kinect effect won't be as strong this year probably.

-Third and last, The WiiU launchest earliest in NA, X360's (and Kinect's) strongest market, so its effect could affect X360 somewhat more than PS3.

I believe one major factor plays against PS3:

-Halo 4 vs. a relatively weak PS3 lineup compared to the last holiday season.

Factors against X60 outweight factors against PS3 imo, so I'm going to go for the 2,3m gap that results from substracting the YTD percentage drops, minus a few hunderd k units. I'm going to say that the gap will end up at around 2,1m units by the end of 2012.

What are your thoughts?

Let's see what people think and how their predictions fare.

I voted 1.8-2.1

I think most people who are Halo fans already have 360s at this point. PS3 has the ACIII bundle and no COD bundle with 360 this year. Also the PS3 has the 12gb model in Europe and has held the lead far better than this year at the same time. Like you said Kinect isn't exactly the craze this year and I don't think we'll see the crazy 2011 numbers for 360 because of that over Black Friday.

The gap will increase still because NA likes 360, but not by much and I expect early next year to be big for PS3 and help it get to less than 1 million given TLOU, Beyond, GoW, Sly, and Puppeteer are all coming while only Gears Judgement is for 360.

2.4 million

This holiday, PS3 will outsell 360 in Japan in Europe. In North America, 360's weekly numbers will be more than double those of PS3.

Hard to say...

I'll just let it play out.

I feel like I have seen this thread a lot before, but going by my prediction in the 10 week Countdown. The gap will be about 3.1m. I will say 2.6-2.9m.

All I know is that Ps3 will win 2012 not sure on numbers or gaps.

Oops. Nevermind.

2,045,000...as long as my prediction on the ten-week sales thread is correct :)

2.2