What will be the gap between PS3 and X360 be by the end of the year?

[Troll_Whisperer]

EDIT: There is a typo in the poll. 2.6-3.9 obviously means 2.6-2.9. Not gonna restart the poll now.

 

If you see some incorrect information or would like me to add any different set of data, let me know.

 

Some facts (VGC nos., slightly rounded):

Current gap: 1,630,000----------------------------------------Last year's gap at the same point: 1,905,000

Gap at the end of 2010: 3,510,000------------------------Gap at the end of 2011: 3,070,000

PS3 sales Nov-Dec 2011: 5,490,000------------------------X360 sales Nov-Dec 2011: 6,650,000

Gap increase in Nov-Dec 2011: 1,160,000---------------Gap increase in Nov-Dec 2012: ???

PS3 YTD: 7,190,000 (-18%)------------------------------------X360 YTD: 5,560,000 (-22%)

2011 PS3 sales at the same point: 8,740,000-----------2011 X360 sales at the same point: 7,146,000

 

Other things to consider:

WiiU launches on Nov 18 in NA, Nov 30 in EU and Dec 8 in JP.

This is the PS3's 7th holiday season (6th in EU) and the X360's 8th holiday season.

PS3 redesign, X360 $50 price cut.

Halo 4, AC3, CoD: BO2

Kinect effect was strong in 2010 and 2011.

 

My analysis:

If we simply substract the YTD percentage drop from these consoles sales in Nov-Dec last year, we have a gap increase of almost 700,000 to about 2,3m.

The X360'll have some offers like the $50 cut and the PS3 the redesign, which for this calculation I'm going to assume will kind of cancel each other out.

I believe some factors play against X360:

-First, the fact that it's had one more holiday season than PS3 (two in EU, PS3's strongest market).

-Second, that the Kinect effect won't be as strong this year probably.

-Third and last, The WiiU launchest earliest in NA, X360's (and Kinect's) strongest market, so its effect could affect X360 somewhat more than PS3.

I believe one major factor plays against PS3:

-Halo 4 vs. a relatively weak PS3 lineup compared to the last holiday season.

 

Factors against X60 outweight factors against PS3 imo, so I'm going to go for the 2,3m gap that results from substracting the YTD percentage drops, minus a few hunderd k units. I'm going to say that the gap will end up at around 2,1m units by the end of 2012.

 

 

What are your thoughts?