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Forums - Politics Discussion - Unemployment rate in USA drops below 8%? I am calling bull on this...

NightDragon83 said:
Most of these jobs are part time / seasonal though. Macy's alone is reportedly hiring around 80,000 workers for the holidays, so that alone gives the jobs numbers a nice little bump.

Come back in January and see what the unemployment rate is.

^ This



Generation 8 Predictions so far.....(as of 9/2013)

Console that will sell most: Nintendo Wii U

Who will sell more consoles between Microsoft/SONY: SONY

 

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ECM said:
spaceguy said:
Yep every republican has called bull on everything not in there favor lately. How wierd that you are too!!!

Who are you talking to??

Richard



From the bureau of labor statistics. For you that don't know, they are not biased. Administrations come and go, they just report. All the republicans just want to call bull on anything that might suggest there wrong.  WEll they are. ==================================================================

Transmission of material in this release is embargoed USDL-12-1981
until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, October 5, 2012

Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- SEPTEMBER 2012


The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8 percent in September, and total nonfarm
payroll employment rose by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
today. Employment increased in health care and in transportation and warehousing
but changed little in most other major industries.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 7.8 percent in September.
For the first 8 months of the year, the rate held within a narrow range of 8.1
and 8.3 percent. The number of unemployed persons, at 12.1 million, decreased by
456,000 in September. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.3 percent),
adult women (7.0 percent), and whites (7.0 percent) declined over the month.
The unemployment rates for teenagers (23.7 percent), blacks (13.4 percent), and
Hispanics (9.9 percent) were little changed. The jobless rate for Asians, at
4.8 percent (not seasonally adjusted), fell over the year. (See tables A-1, A-2,
and A-3.)

In September, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs
decreased by 468,000 to 6.5 million. (See table A-11.)

The number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks declined by 302,000 over
the month to 2.5 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for
27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.8 million and accounted for 40.1
percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)

Total employment rose by 873,000 in September, following 3 months of little
change. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.4 percentage point to
58.7 percent, after edging down in the prior 2 months. The overall trend in
the employment-population ratio for this year has been flat. The civilian labor
force rose by 418,000 to 155.1 million in September, while the labor force
participation rate was little changed at 63.6 percent. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes
referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August
to 8.6 million in September. These individuals were working part time because
their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time
job. (See table A-8.)

In September, 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force,
essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally
adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were
available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months.
They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work
in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 802,000 discouraged workers in
September, a decline of 235,000 from a year earlier. (These data are not
seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking
for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining
1.7 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in September had
not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such
as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 114,000 in September. In 2012,
employment growth has averaged 146,000 per month, compared with an average
monthly gain of 153,000 in 2011. In September, employment rose in health care
and in transportation and warehousing. (See table B-1.)

Health care added 44,000 jobs in September. Job gains continued in ambulatory
health care services (+30,000) and hospitals (+8,000). Over the past year,
employment in health care has risen by 295,000.

In September, employment increased by 17,000 in transportation and warehousing.
Within the industry, there were job gains in transit and ground passenger
transportation (+9,000) and in warehousing and storage (+4,000).

Employment in financial activities edged up in September (+13,000), reflecting
modest job growth in credit intermediation (+6,000) and real estate (+7,000).

Manufacturing employment edged down in September (-16,000). On net, manufacturing
employment has been unchanged since April. In September, job losses occurred
in computer and electronic products (-6,000) and in printing and related
activities (-3,000).

Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, construction,
wholesale trade, retail trade, information, professional and business services,
leisure and hospitality, and government, showed little change over the month.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by
0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in September. The manufacturing workweek edged up by
0.1 hour to 40.6 hours, and factory overtime was unchanged at 3.2 hours.
The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private
nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm
payrolls rose by 7 cents to $23.58. Over the past 12 months, average hourly
earnings have risen by 1.8 percent. In September, average hourly earnings of
private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 5 cents
to $19.81. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from
+141,000 to +181,000, and the change for August was revised from +96,000 to
+142,000.

____________
The Employment Situation for October is scheduled to be released on
Friday, November 2, 2012, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).




Moonhero said:
My work has added 8 new people last month. We plan to add more. Yes, this is real.
Obama 2012!

So are you saying that if a Republican was in office you guys wouldn't have hired those 8 new people?

The economy is slowly recovering and adding jobs IN SPITE of Obama's policies, not because of them.  If Obama really was the reason for the decrease in unemployment and the overall improvement of the economy, we should have been well below 7% unemployment at this time, because that's what his administration's models predicted would happen after the stimulius and other policies were initiated.  They also said that unemployment wouldn't go above 8%... it took nearly 4 years just to get BELOW 8%, and there's no guarantee it'll stay below 8% after the holiday season is over.



On 2/24/13, MB1025 said:
You know I was always wondering why no one ever used the dollar sign for $ony, but then I realized they have no money so it would be pointless.

NightDragon83 said:
Moonhero said:
My work has added 8 new people last month. We plan to add more. Yes, this is real.
Obama 2012!

So are you saying that if a Republican was in office you guys wouldn't have hired those 8 new people?

The economy is slowly recovering and adding jobs IN SPITE of Obama's policies, not because of them.  If Obama really was the reason for the decrease in unemployment and the overall improvement of the economy, we should have been well below 7% unemployment at this time, because that's what his administration's models predicted would happen after the stimulius and other policies were initiated.  They also said that unemployment wouldn't go above 8%... it took nearly 4 years just to get BELOW 8%, and there's no guarantee it'll stay below 8% after the holiday season is over.


Really! they didn't expect the Senate to filabustered the most bills in history and also didn't expect a house that is useless. They shut the government down on purpose. So really if the Republicans where not involved we would be well below 7%.



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binary solo said:
ECM said:
richardhutnik said:
I am not saying that this is some evil Obama plot doing it, just that the measures to me seem pretty much broken.

This has been a problem for a lot longer than Obama, and there are no signs it'll be fixed, since it's always going to benefit one party when it's 'their turn', so there's no incentive to actually do anything about it. (And as long as there's 'play' in the numbers, they're going to be massaged extra carefully, especially during a presidential election year.)

So what you're saying is that the Bureau of Labour Statistics deliberately massages these numbers in an election year to make the president look good? Is corruption in the USA really that deep? If so why bother even going through the sham of having elections?

Is the Bureau, like everything else in the US govt, staffed by political appointees at the senior levels? This would mean in every presidential election year the stats put out by the bureau will favour the president of the day.


Its really not that the BLS massaged the numbers for Obama, but the fact that they've massaged the numbers for decades. I believe it was in the 1960's that we adjusted how we calculate unemployment, because the government thought it was too high.

Gallup's underemployment, the BLS U-6 number, as well as labor participation rates are usually the best three metrics to use, as they provide a very broad-based approach to employment. Having said that, all three are generally bad, and not recovering very quickly.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

spaceguy said:
NightDragon83 said:
Moonhero said:
My work has added 8 new people last month. We plan to add more. Yes, this is real.
Obama 2012!

So are you saying that if a Republican was in office you guys wouldn't have hired those 8 new people?

The economy is slowly recovering and adding jobs IN SPITE of Obama's policies, not because of them.  If Obama really was the reason for the decrease in unemployment and the overall improvement of the economy, we should have been well below 7% unemployment at this time, because that's what his administration's models predicted would happen after the stimulius and other policies were initiated.  They also said that unemployment wouldn't go above 8%... it took nearly 4 years just to get BELOW 8%, and there's no guarantee it'll stay below 8% after the holiday season is over.


Really! they didn't expect the Senate to filabustered the most bills in history and also didn't expect a house that is useless. They shut the government down on purpose. So really if the Republicans where not involved we would be well below 7%.

If that's the case.... Then why are Republican-dominated states doing so well in regards to employment vs. Democratic-dominated states? If it really were simply obstructionism, then you'd think that the employment issues would be very broad based, but instead, they're rather acute to a few specific states.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

theprof00 said:
ECM said:
JazzB1987 said:
How accurrate is ths? In germany for example only people that are registered as LOOKING FOR A JOB count as unemployed. So if you live under a bridge or on a park bench. You are not counted.

It's basically the same here, which is a big part of the problem.

We only count those looking for a job--if you leave the labor pool, even though you want (but can't find) a job, you don't exist, so this artificially depresses/enhances the numbers even when the economy is doing well, which is why you hear the 10%+ number thrown around often because, alas, it's more accurate than the massaged numbers that work to politicians'--of both parties, depending upon who is ascendant-- advantage and no one else's.

I just don't get why that's such a big deal. Lots of people don't want or care to have jobs. Why should we penalize the potus for people that have no care for that?

Like, when I was in school, I couldn't have a job because if I did, I wouldn't count as a dependent. That would could me in "the real unemployment rate" as someone who isn't employed, which is a negative, but I didn't want a job.


Well let me explain the problem in my country.   So lets say you  finished school. You want to have a break from all the "work" and studying etc.

You can do two things now.

1- You "relax" for a while and at the same time try to find a job that suits you. You can only do this when you DONT register.  You automatically dont count as unemployed and this distorts the image of how many jobs are needed to make everyone that wants a job  get a job. Because the country/state totally ignores you (THIS IS THE PROBLEM here)

Or

2. You go and register at the job center and automatically receive unemployment benefits even if you dont need or want that.  You are forced to show them how much money you own  if you have stocks  if you own a house or apartment list everyone in your household and what their income is etc.  you  how many children you have. 
They want to know everything this is quite annyoing and takes months  because of the stupid bureaucracy. They want you to apply for 30 jobs month or force you to take a job you dont want  like  farmin strawberries  even if you studied psychology or whatever  they totally ignore your skills etc. If your appartment is to big they force you to move into a smaller one and if you dont obey they remove you from the list and stop giving you money. (so there was no point in registering at all LOL)

What they also do is they force you into totally useless vocational preparation programs that just waste your time and because of this they FAKE the unemployment statistics. They delete you from the LOOKING FOR A JOB list because of this.


The whole system is stupid.  Instead of letting me REGISTER as wanting a job without gibing me money or forcing me to do something they terrorize melol


And then there is the problem with homeless etc.  If you dont have a home you are not part of a community and noone is responsible for you. You cannot even register  even if you really want a job. Because you dont belong to a job center that usually registers you.

The country has no idea how many people want jobs and because of this they will never be able to provide enough of them



mrstickball said:
spaceguy said:
NightDragon83 said:
Moonhero said:
My work has added 8 new people last month. We plan to add more. Yes, this is real.
Obama 2012!

So are you saying that if a Republican was in office you guys wouldn't have hired those 8 new people?

The economy is slowly recovering and adding jobs IN SPITE of Obama's policies, not because of them.  If Obama really was the reason for the decrease in unemployment and the overall improvement of the economy, we should have been well below 7% unemployment at this time, because that's what his administration's models predicted would happen after the stimulius and other policies were initiated.  They also said that unemployment wouldn't go above 8%... it took nearly 4 years just to get BELOW 8%, and there's no guarantee it'll stay below 8% after the holiday season is over.


Really! they didn't expect the Senate to filabustered the most bills in history and also didn't expect a house that is useless. They shut the government down on purpose. So really if the Republicans where not involved we would be well below 7%.

If that's the case.... Then why are Republican-dominated states doing so well in regards to employment vs. Democratic-dominated states? If it really were simply obstructionism, then you'd think that the employment issues would be very broad based, but instead, they're rather acute to a few specific states.


AHHHHHHHHHHHHHH Ohio , Michigan etc obama saved the auto industry and lets not forget it has also been a big engine in all those states.

They also all took the stimulus. Republicans crashed the economy, FACT!!!!!!! FACT!!!!!!!!!!!!!! So there goes your logic and it was all from deregulation, tax breaks, wars.



HappySqurriel said:

While you can argue over which methodology is correct, I think shadowstats is a much more "natural" unemployment statistics; because it includes everyone people would typically consider unemployed.

 

 

The interesting difference between the official statistics and shadowstats statistics is that the official statistics have been declining since (roughly) 2010 while the shadowstats alternative has been growing by (essentially) the same amount. The reason for this is that, while the economy has been creating jobs, there have not been enough jobs created to cover population growth (250,000/month IIRC) and people who give up on finding a job are not considered unemployed by the official statistics.

man 2009 was really a sick year, saw a statistic about germany's exports of the last 10 years some days ago and that graph looked also like that just in the other direction. crazy how a crisis can kill so much in so short time on a worldwide basis.