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Forums - Nintendo - Pachter predicts the length of Wii’s momentum (Hilarious!)

azrm2k on 18 January 2008
Jandre002 said:
Whats been missing the past few years is excitement in the PS world. They were riding out their dominant lead.

The Wii is dominating in the absence of a Playstation platform.There is a reason why everyone switched from Nintendo to Sony around 2000.
Its because of what Nintendo is doing right now, releasing TOO MANY Nintendo games, and not enough mature games.

Once the PS3 gets positive attention and momentum, it will have an effect on the Wii's sales, whether you like it or not. I have yet to meet anyone who has bought a Wii for Mario games, its always for Wii Sports.

The Wii won last year in the absence of dominating games like Madden, GTA and Final Fantasy, and when Halo was released the Wii lost to Xbox in America.

Give it time and watch. Maybe your right and people like Mario and Wii Sports/Fit more than GTA MGS FF, or any other games that have a point to them. I dont think its true, and next holiday season the PS3 will outsell the Wii.
First 6 months go to the Wii, last 6 the PS3.

 None of the games you listed will have the massive advertising blitz of Halo.  The only one that I can see coming close to matching the front-loaded sales that Halo had is GTA.  And yet how long did that momentum of the Halo launch carry the 360 past the Wii? 2 weeks! 2 weeks where Wii had to settle for 2nd place by 40,000 units and then 30.  And then it was back on top.  Just a month after Halo's launch the Wii went back to outselling the 360 by 100,000 units WW!

Besides what do you mean the absence of dominating games like Madden?  I was unaware that madden 08 didn't come out like scheduled last year.  Let me go check why that was cancelled....

.. 

..

Oh wait!  It did come out! And the week it came out the Wii sold a little under 270,000 units to the combined sales of a little over 200,000 units of Xbox 360 and PS3!

Also as to your comment about not meeting anybody who buys Wii for Mario but buys it for Wii Sports insinuating it's not for core games but casual titles.  I love famousringo's sig on this site that says "The plural of anecdote is not data"... So true



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CrazzyMan on 18 January 2008

Nintendo alway can drop price. This will attract even more casuals.
But with price 199$ vs 299$ it will be harder to choice between wii and ps3, after people see FFXIII, KZ2, MGS4, GT5 and etc.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

azrm2k on 18 January 2008

But for those who wait for a lower price MK, SSBB, WiiFit and etc. will also make it harder to 'choice' =)



FJ-Warez on 18 January 2008
Jandre002 said:
What im saying is, people are saying it wont happen because the PS3 "wont" do this or that. In reality, the PS3 can do anything the Wii can do except point and play games. The reversed isnt true.

And viral marketing really only works online. Mainstream buyers who just want to play Madden or GTA will end up with either an Xbox or PS3.

All im saying is, if it did occur that the PS3 was better with more fun games and everything, how many people would buy one? A lot of people dont want to look at the situation openly, because doing that would reveal how attract the PS3 COULD potentially become.

It touches every fanbase, and no matter what you want to play the PS3 has games in that category that might even be better than the game on your system.
Racing, fighting, FPS, TPS, Adventure, MMORPG, JRPG. Its all proven to be popular and majority of that is PS3 exclusive this year. Sure there is competition from both consoles, but does that mean MGS4 or GT5 isnt going to be amazing? FFXIII doesn't excite anyone who owns a Wii? Its denial of the community that convinces me that once people start to cave, the PS3 will have great momentum. You like the PS3 and its lineup, and at the right price you'll get one.

 What are you saying is how the PS3 can take off once the games "You like or thing are great" are out...

 There is a flaw in this logic, you need to start thinking in what a average costumer wants, and what are they getting, and not in what you want...

Is easy, you like the PS3 and you think once the games come, and the prices come is suddenly going to sell a lot and maybe win...

 Viral marketing works really well outside the web, and why a costumer will choice the 360 version vs the Wii one???

 Again, fun and better games is only subjective... what is more fun, SMG or R&C???

 Try to think about this, the PS3 sold poorly at $600 60b version, the 40Gb price is doing better, but they need to take away features of the main model, what does that mean... is the PS3 only more atractive when has less features and lower price??? Wasn´t a heck of a deal at $600??? Again, the atractive is subjective... 

Why should a game gender in the PS3 better  than the Wii, I find SMG better than R&C, and I´m not alone in this one...

And no, it doesn´t touch every fan base, I´m not excited by MGS, FF... and I´m not the only one... 

 Right now I don´t like the PS3 line up, the future line up is meh for me (Except LBP but is not enough), and again, I´m not the only one...



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HappySqurriel on 18 January 2008
CrazzyMan said:
Nintendo alway can drop price. This will attract even more casuals.
But with price 199$ vs 299$ it will be harder to choice between wii and ps3, after people see FFXIII, KZ2, MGS4, GT5 and etc.

For the small segment of the population who cares about Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid or Gran Turismo it may be a more difficult choice; the most important thing is that these people are also the most likely to own 2 or 3 consoles.

For the majority of gamers who don't spend $300 on a system, who tend to only own one system, will (for the most part) still be using a SDTV, aren't graphic whores, and favour a large varied library the choice will be simple.



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Linkzmax on 18 January 2008
HappySqurriel said:
CrazzyMan said:
Nintendo alway can drop price. This will attract even more casuals.
But with price 199$ vs 299$ it will be harder to choice between wii and ps3, after people see FFXIII, KZ2, MGS4, GT5 and etc.

For the small segment of the population who cares about Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid or Gran Turismo it may be a more difficult choice; the most important thing is that these people are also the most likely to own 2 or 3 consoles.

For the majority of gamers who don't spend $300 on a system, who tend to only own one system, will (for the most part) still be using a SDTV, aren't graphic whores, and favour a large varied library the choice will be simple.


 Well said.  I think it's important to realize also that there were more PS2 owners that didn't buy FF, MGS, GT, or GTA than those that did.  It's rather likely that most of these owners will not buy PS3s for the new iterations in these series.  That's not to say they won't buy a PS3, but for most they'll need other reasons for the purchase.



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finalsquall on 18 January 2008

Soriku, you laugh at a price drop, but by that time you'll have enough pocket money... and you my friend will be the first to buy one :P



  Unleash The Beast!  

End of 2011 Sales: Wii = 90mil, 360 = 61mil, PS3= 60mil

Sqrl on 18 January 2008

Note: I didn't read the majority of this thread and don't care to.

Ok everyone should remember that this is the same guy who also said consumers would be ok with the $60 games and that they should be ok with games more expensive than $60. How many of you are happy about $60 games and looking forward to $75 games? Not too many I bet.

In any case even if this prediction he makes is 100% true and the PS3 dropping to $300 steals some of the Wii's thunder it bothers me that people forget that Nintendo still hasn't had to use ANY of their arsenal. They have price drops, colors, bundles, etc... that they can offer to try to rekindle interest the same as any other console...the difference? They haven't had to use any of it yet because interest is high enough on its own.

Pachters "Nintendomination ends [insert date]" fails just as hard as every other fanboy who spouts it. And sorry but if you listen to the guy on Bonus round or just about any interview he is a complete HD gaming fanboy the guy just doesn't get the Wii and that would be fine if it wasn't his job to understand it.
To Each Man, Responsibility
wiiforever on 18 January 2008
Soriku said:
leo-j said:
lol no the 80gb will never drop to $299.

Im talking about the 40gb.

Also, soriku Im usually correct about my predictions, I will be correct again when ur the one that gets banned.

ROFL. That's a good one

Anyone believe leo-j's testimony?



lol I'm with Soriku

 



johnsobas on 18 January 2008

How about his prediction of GT prologue raising PS3 sales in 200k in Japan, then the game having almost no effect and PS3 selling 50k, the game selling a whopping 109k.
Leo-J is way worse than pachter



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X