75Mil

pitzy272
"The hype compared to what I'm actually seeing in the Wii U still seems pretty silly to me"
its not very dificult to guess why dude...:P

I can only see a scenario at worse in the 50m range and max of the 100m with what we know about the console and the competition so far. At bare min I see 20m to 30m Nintendo only fans for whenever they release the game they like best comes out or announced and least another 10m min that would be casual upgrading.

Casual gamers have not suddenly been brain-washed into leaving Nintendo.  The very nature of a "casual gamer" is that they are impulse buyers who trend with what's hot at the moment.  If WiiU becomes the "it" thing to have and offers a fun experience, it is erroneous to assume that many people won't bite; particularly since WiiU's price is right and it will always remain the cheapest console of the 8th gen.

Despite WiiU's current positive buzz as it arrives into the market, it is true that anything can happen in the coming years.  However claiming that it will sell only 40m units?  Well, let's just say the odds are against that.

im thinking the least it could sell is 50-60 million and thats if nintendo fuck up real bad.

What people seem to forget is the competition. Why isn't anybody understanding that Sony won't be able to make a major jump over the WiiU? Viper1 actually made this very clear in superchunk's VS thread. I'll quote a bit of it:

"The high end PS3 launched in Japan for ¥59,980 which was $558 in 2006 but is $766 today. So even if they dropped the PS4 launch price to, say, ¥39,980, that still makes it $510 today. So no matter what, provided the exchange doesn't rapidly move to weaken the Yen in the next year, Sony will either have to launch with a very large loss or reduce the capabilities of the system to launch at a more market friendly price. This is one of the reasons the 3DS launched at such a high price compared to the DS several years before. To hold the same margin of profit or loss, now requires a far higher foreign price than it did before.

And a $100 loss per console is far too much for them as a company now than it was back in 2006. In 2006, they were a financially sound comapny. That is not the case today. If they sold 10 million units at a $100 loss, that's a $1 billion loss to a company that can't handle taking on another billion dollar loss."

Clearly Sony won't be able to take a major leap next gen due to their financial situation, and due to the exchange rate. They might take a $50 hit for every console, but that's not nearly enough if they wanna blow the Wii U out of the waters.

And if Sony won't make a cutting edge machine, why would Microsoft? As far as we know, they'll probably bundle the console with Kinect 2.0, and they'd price such a bundle at about $399 - or $449 at the most. With the Kinect bundled at that price they won't be able to make a bleeding edge console. Sure they could take a $100 hit/console with a $449 price tag, but will that be enough of power packed in the box to dominate both PS4 and Wii U? Maybe.

But consider this then: If Xbox3 is waaaay more powerful than WiiStation4U (like how PS3 was to PS2), which platform(s) do you think the developers would make games for? It'll be cheaper to make games for WiiStation4U than for the cutting edge Xbox3, and there will probably be a bigger user base for WiiStation4U (2 consoles combined) rather than for the 1 Xbox3. Thus, Xbox3 would get up scaled ports from WiiStation4U - NOT taking advantage of all the power Xbox3 has - meaning, all games will look about as good on all consoles.

What's my point then? This:

If all games will look equally good on all the consoles (with only minor differences) and all consoles will therefore get the same 3rd party support. And thus, the winner of next gen will be determent by other factors, and that's why WiiU might win next gen. It all comes down to:

3rd party games (which they all will have)

1st party games (and we all know Nintendo dominates this category)

Unique features for each console (like the GamePad or Kinect 2.0)

And that's why WiiU won't sell less than 40m units. They'll have 3rd party support. They certainly have the 1st party titles. They have unique features, but it remains to see if they'll be enough. They could win this gen. I'm telling you; they could reach 120m sold WiiU's life time. At the very least they'll reach 60m sold units.

^

UPDATE: Current Wii U sales: 3,906,796. 36,093,204 to go...

lol. This thread is total ownage

Nice prediction, I agree