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Forums - Sales - I think the 720 and PS4 will fail sales wise if there is no hook

OoSnap on 09 September 2012

@Pray

The 360 sold much more than its predeccessor largely because of its third party support yet it still got outsold by the Wii by tens of millions.

If the Wii U gets most of the multiplats then I think the 720 won't nearly be as successful as the 360 without some appealing hook. The mass market will easily choose the Wii U over the 720 for their gaming. To me this is a no brainer.

Of course this is based on assuming Wii U gets most of the multiplats. But I think Wii U will likely get most of the multiplats.



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Jay520 on 09 September 2012
OoSnap said:
@ Jay

I think 100+ million is good benchmark for what can be a mass market console. I admit it is vague and even arbitrary. PS1, PS2, Wii, and DS fits that criteria.

The PS4 and 720 will be competing against the Wii U which has an appealing feature and likely have most of the multiplats and likely be more inexpensive. I don't see the market choosing the PS4 or 720 over the Wii U. For such reasons the Wii U is certainly going to cut into potential 720/PS4 sales. In this economy (which likely won't improve for a long time) I really can't see many people spending $350+ on a console when they can play most of the same games on a more inexpensive console.

What hooks will the PS4/720 have that were as appealing as the inexpensive DVD player of PS2?

Advanced online systems for one. There's also increased storage capacity which should be extremely importantly with the increasing focus on digital distribution. And of course there's better graphics. Unnanounced factors, etc

But I'm not trying to use those factors to claim that the PS4 & 720 will reach 100m sales (No one can say at the moment). I don't really care if they sell 100m. I just care if they see sustainable profit, which I expect them to do. You and I just have different measures of success.



Max King of the Wild on 09 September 2012

the xbox actually had decent third party from what I can remember and wiki backs that memory up.

"Although the console gained strong third party support from its inception, many early Xbox games did not fully use its powerful hardware, with few additional features or graphical improvements to distinguish them from the PS2 version, thus negating one of the Xbox's main selling points"

The 360 success is due to A. beating the competitor to the market. and B. being cheaper than its closest competitor and



OoSnap on 09 September 2012

@ Max

A. Apparently because it hasn't been getting software support for a while.

B. So will likely be the Wii U.

C. Exactly. With the tablet gamepad/asymmetric gameplay hook + likely to be the least expensive will put the WiiU at a huge advantage over the 720 and PS4. The mass market is going to choose the Wii U especially if has the multiplats.


D. It was selling but not at the rate of the PS1, PS2, or Wii was.



archbrix on 09 September 2012
prayformojo said:
archbrix said:
Max King of the Wild said:
Is that why Wii has 42% market and slipping? The mass market cared about the ps2 hence the 80% market share and climbing

And?  Once more you follow up with something that I'm not debating.  My point above still stands.

But since you bring it up, it's foolish to believe that the market would have so readily abandoned the Wii had Nintendo continued to heavily support it.  The console would already be past the 100m mark had that been the case.

Proof? Where is the proof it would have chugged along sales wise? Do you have some sort of future telling machine or a what if caculator? All you are going on is what you BELIEVE would have happened. Personally, I believe the reason the sales dive occured is due to the fact that most of the Wii craze came off the backs of people who weren't gamers to begin with. They were hipsters, and people who just wanted to have the hottest "it" thing. When you look at the rise of mobile gaming, and the ipad, and you factor in the shift towards farmville...I think it's clear what happened. Nintendo didn't see it coming, and THAT'S why the Wii went down hill so fast. Facebook and mobile gaming took those non gamers away and all that was left was the core fanbase, or the "Gamecube" base.

This generation, those non gamers aren't coming back because they've moved on. If the Wii-U does well, it'll be because Nintendo made great core gamers.

Do you have proof or possess some clairvoyance to the contrary?  No?  Then it seems we're at an impasse on that subject, no?  Now then, I'll address your points:

Yes, the "hipsters" as you put it were a big part of the Wii craze.  But the Wii was not a console designed to have a 10 year life span and it was very front loaded.  The fact is that Nintendo could've kept making great games - core or otherwise - for the Wii and prolonged its sales.  Yes, the "craze" would have been over, but we wouldn't have seen such a drastic drop in sales as we saw when support was dropped almost altogether.



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Max King of the Wild on 09 September 2012

Oosnap

I doubt software support would make a dramatic effect.. It's probably hit close to it's saturation point.

Yes... my point exactly... lower price really hasnt helped out the Wii that much

It's naive to think that consoles will sell now at their current price but not in a couple of years at the same price.

The ps360 has sold more than the ps1 and will sell more than the ps2... this is the first generation that 3 consoles are actually thriving in the market. Its ridiculous not to look at the market. And the wii obviously hasnt sold at the other rates either.



archbrix on 09 September 2012

Max King of the Wild said:
Why your claims are really something

Why, thank you.

Watch me I can do the same thing as you

"The ps2 would have sold 200 million units if the ps3 hadn't launched"

Nah, not quite 200m... not with 360 and Wii present in the market.

 





archbrix on 09 September 2012
Max King of the Wild said:

Also, you say ps360 couldnt surpass 6th gen without the wii... but again you have no proof for this statement. In fact the systems are almost at 140mil and still selling with 100 million wii buyers potentially buying a ps360. 200mil would have been a possibility... and thats something considering 6th gen had 4 consoles and ps360 are obviously only 2.

And you have proof that those 100m Wii owners would buy a PS360?



archbrix on 09 September 2012
Max King of the Wild said:
Archbrix the 100 million who bought wii's don't automatically dissapear... And thats just a false dilema you just presented.

In no way was the 200 million people who bought consoles last gen were all "real gamers" and in no way do only "real gamers" just buy ps360.

So, none of those 100m Wii owners own a PS360 already?

Regarding your last sentence, I'll actually concede to that.



Max King of the Wild on 09 September 2012

I love how I do the same thing as you and you say "not with the 360 and wii in the market." this is obviously the point. The 30 and wii are in the market... hency how absurd your comments on "if x didnt happen then y" but x did happen.

Also, like I said 100million people just don't dissapear. Less than half of those would need to switch to ps360 to meet last gens sales. Thats more plausible than your claims