I agree with OP 100%.

However new features or "hooks" as you put it can come in surprising packages...take for example 360 this gen with a big push into online gaming...that in itself is a hook. Hooks dont need to be as extreme or obvious as a new control scheme (wii remote) but rather any feature that adds to the core experience in a meaningful way and brought across to the consumer conveniently and naturally.

But yes simply having better graphics will be the death of the console as we know it. That is pretty obvious to anyone with half a brain

You don;t know if they'll find it innovative when almost everyone has a touch screen device, you don't know if they'll care. What is proven is that Nintendo fans will buy WiiU and that gamers will buy Xbox and PS3. There is a long road ahead for Nintendo to have the same success than they did with the Wii. Videogame consoles have always sold millions without having to resort to different ways of interactivity.

i agree
Msoft is dead in Japan and strong in the US, Sony is popular everywhere but not the N 1, well except maybe the EU, Japan is Nintendominated
i think the 3 have a real challenge this upcoming gen, but i think Nintendo has the advantage, because of its family friendly image, cheaper prices and the timing

I agree. I loved Hook on the SNES.

The next-Xbox will most likely feature an upgraded version of Kinect combined with virtual reality glasses if the leaked documents are true. A cheaply-made, Oculus Rift is a good example of what I think Microsoft may be working on for their console.

The PS4 isn't as predictable as Microsoft's console. Unlike the Kinect, the Move wasn't a success so though I'm expecting motion controls to be supported, it won't be the core feature of the PS4. There's a chance that the new dual shock will be a Wii U-like controller but I don't think Sony will be as successful as Nintendo in the long run. Sony is usually very ambitious so it is likely that they will try to please everyone by improving on their competitor's selling points and delivering it on one console. I'm not sure what new hook Sony would bring on their own. Does anyone have any ideas?

"Well, sales wise the 360 and PS3 failed to sell as much as the PS2 or PS1."

Niether did the Wii...

"Let's not forget both got outsold by a console that lacked major 3rd party support but had an innovative hook."

Yet the Wii still didn't get as much market as the Ps2 or Ps1 did... shows that more people would rather have a ps3 or 360 then a wii

PS2 has been sold now for over 10 years and Wii will most likely pas PS1 next year

10 years or not wii will never reach those of ps2 sales. as for ps1 sales... nice comparing a the wii that launched in 2006 to a system who launched in in 1994. Not only has the world population increased by 1.5 billion but the gaming market has expanded since it's become more viable in other countries.

Though the Wii sold a lot you would expect the system to sell more than a 2 gen old system by a decent margin. Not just barely scrape by it.

Let's look at hardware sales on the home page. (PS3 + Xbox ~ 130 million combined)

I would be confident in saying that the vast majority of these are hardcore to semi hardcore gamers. Let's say 30 million are in the casual bracket.

Based on these numbers that's 100 million potential buyers for the 720 or PS4.

The hook here is simple:

Better Graphics (Detail & Effects)
Better Animation
Higher Resolution
Better Physics
Destructible Environments
Larger Worlds
Online Gaming
Multimedia
Bigger Disc Storage etc

The typical upgrades that come with any new hardware launch. I'd say there are a large portion of PS3 and 360 users who are ready to use their current consoles as a door stop as they have been around for too long, and will jump to next gen at the earliest opportunity.

So in my opinion, they won't fail without a hook as you suggest. Sales will be staggered like any console launch, unless the payment plan they are trialling now with the 360 plays a huge part at launch and influences higher start-up up numbers.

I feel the hook will come into play for the Wii users (96 million of them), who are mostly casual. They will be sold on novelty, I wonder how many of these may turn into serious gamers wanting a more challenging game experience than offered on the Wii.

I also get the feeling that due to the long console cycle, developers have had a lot more time to have AAA games ready for next gen launch. I think this will play the biggest factor in the early adoption, a large selection of next gen games, some with features unable to be reproduced on current gen, and possibly a number of current gen games patched with updated higher res graphics to further entice the move.

In my opinion, despite some good games coming out, PS3 and 360 gamers are bored with current gen. Technical limits have been hit, nothing new on the table, playing the same game year after year. That's why sales are at a low point, people are just waiting...