Well there's obviously a lot of factors still to be determined. Vita will start getting bundles with madden in about two weeks I think. And from there it will have a stream of bundles including LBP, AC, COD and PS all stars. I think one of the big determining factors will be how sony decides to advertise this holiday. Though on that front I at least am optimistic since they seem to realize they made a mistake advertising only to the 18-32 market. I could see the LBP bundle being a successfuly product for the holiday if promoted well. And of course they'll need a big game or two for Japan which I think is its most troubling market. 

Yeah, using Mario and Zelda as hard to reach examples was a little too obvious.

What I simply wanted to say was that despite Uncharted Vita being a great version of console Uncharted, getting great reviews, it doesn't seem to have conquered the mind space of gamers. Gamers don't crave Uncharted Vita so much that it justifies a purchase of a $300 handheld (the cheapest one costs that much with the memory card, doesn't it?), it's just a small part of the equation.

I can just look at myself. I am a HD gamer first and foremost. I adore Assassin's Creed and Bioshock but I have zero interest in playing them on a handheld. So when I bought a handheld a few months ago I obviously chose the 3DS, because it gives me an experience I can't get on my PS3 (so far Kid Icarus and the Zelda remake and I will get the golden coin Mario when it comes out).

I dissagree with the sentiment that no one wants console quality experiences on a handheld. The 3DS has been successfull almost exclusively off console style experiences- Zelda, Mario Kart, Mario 3D land, Monster Hunter Tri (in jap), Resident Evil, Kid Icarus, Fire emblem (jap) and Kingdom Hearts. Some people may argue that the 2 mario games are more handheld experiences, but they are simply handheld interations of already popular console franchises. Bit sized handheld gaming has been claimed by smart phones, Nintendo cannot not longer rely on brain training titles and nintendogs to succed this time round. The main difference between nintendo's Strategy? Nintendo has mario (and the the entire under 14 market), sony do not...

Mario and Monster hunter+ a price cut and huge advertising campaign paved a way for the later 3DS titles to do well.

Comparably sony's big guns for the fall have are often competing with console iteration. Even though COD:diclassified and AC: liberation are orginal games they are launching day and date as the console versions (super dumb!!!). I think RPG's are the real way to make a handheld successful (unless your mario), sony don't have that unfortunately and the action games they are trying to bring to vita look unambitious compared to their console counter-parts. I still think an updated Elder Scrolls:Morrowind and FF Type-0 could have been massive for Vita, even though they would both be ports. I think the key is to have games which won't suffer from the move to handheld (LBP is a good example). 

though $250 is a bit pricey, I still think it was a fantastic price point for the Vita; before it came out everyone thought it would be well over $300. but basically we got a stellar upgrade from the PSP at the same starting price point

what plagues the vita is what plagued the PSP, it doesn't have a system seller game, Sony relied too much on 3rd-party devs with the PSP, and their first-party isn't strong enough to sell their franchises on a handheld console as most of Sony's franchise are new. When the 3DS was doing bad, all they did was cut the price and release 2 Mario games basically back to back and bam!! 3DS was back in business.

the Vita's not dead, but it's nearing life support. The holidays with be good for the vita, I can seen it selling 150k-175 during the holidays, the only system seller I can see is actually CoD: Declassified, whether looking like crap, if it can catch that CoD hype the sales for it and the vita could skyrocket. all Sony has to do is throw in an ad saying "play CoD anytime. anywhere" and I actually think FF X HD can also sell some vita's as well,(speculating that it will be out before/during the holidays) one of the most memorable titles on the PS2 on the go? instant sales! and I'm hoping a TGS Sony confirms what everyone has been asking for and that is port FF Type-0 to the vita!!! trophies or not that would give vita sales a nice boost in the west(seeing as we haven't even gotten the PSP version)

Nope give it til next year, There are so many good games coming out for the vita in October.

Great post and reasonable numbers (although I think there are 20 or 21 weeks left of this year, depending on where you end it).

Using your numbers a little, I predict:

Without price-cut:
50k per week in Aug-Oct = 600K
150K per week in Nov-Dec = 1.35 mill
total: 2.5 mill + 600K + 1.35 mill = 4.45 mill by end of year

With a $50 price cut sales could increase up to 40% (optimistically):
70k per week in Aug-Oct ~ 800K
210K per week in Nov-Dec = 1.9 mill
Total: 2.5 mill + 800K + 1.9 mill = 5.2 mill by end of year

So even with a price cut we get a dismal lifetime sales of 5.2 million by end of 2012.

why frame the op as a question? its clear you've already made up your mind

"I GIVE VITA UNTIL 2013 AND THEN SONY WILL SURELY PULL THE PLUG!!!"

It was obsolete, although that isn't neccessarily the reason for it being discontinued it it could have only ended badly due to the tech limitations. Although the ps2 launch games were of a similar graphical quality, once the trio of the ps2, gamecube and xbox came into their own they represented a graphically fidelity which the dreamcast could not stand next to and unlike a system like the wii it had no other redeeming factor. 

I do enjoy reading all those old articles where people were predicting the 3ds would get hammered by the vita. I remember people on this site were convinced as well. Funny how things change over the course of a few months. I actually do want a vita having been impressed by what i have played of it, but for the moment its just to expensive. In the uk its £200 for the wi fi only model, then another £20 for the memory card, and then another £30 if you want a decent game. For the same price you could by an original 3ds with nsmb2, mario kart, mario 3d land, zelda and kid icarus. Its not really surprising people are choosing the 3ds, at least here in the uk.

You have a point, all those 3DS games have console roots, but there's a big difference between Mario, Kid Icarus and Zelda compared to the HD "PS3 experience" with guns blazing, cinematic and bombastic games like Uncharted, Killzone, Call of Duty and Assassin's Creed.

If I honestly just look at myself. Whenever I think of Assassin's Creed (I love those games) I think of the visuals, the atmosphere and Jesper Kyd's amazing ambient music. I know there's a Assassin's Creed coming for Vita, but I just can't imagine I will get anywhere near that same feeling on the Vita as I do with a big screen and great sound.

Meanwhile, Nintendo games are about gameplay first. Starting with Mario, no doubt Mario on the Wii is a more immersive experience, but the upcoming gold coin Mario for 3DS will still give me a genuine Mario experience, which is pure gameplay and fun. Mario Kart is about the racing, not about amazing sound and visuals. Kid Icarus is an on-rails arcadey action game, not an on-steroids game like Killzone or Gears of Wars that demands precise controls and a powerful presentation (and not to forget for many people, a good online option).

But as a huge Elder Scrolls fan, if a Morrowind port really came to the Vita, I would buy a Vita.