Is the Vita truely dead?

[leatherhat]

HappySqurriel said:

leatherhat said:

HappySqurriel said:

leatherhat said:
I just went and checked ps3's sales for its first holiday. And it averaged around 178k weekly without European sales. Its second holiday and first ww holiday it did significantly better averaging 326k from the middle of October to the end of the year. So thats what one struggling console did in its first holiday. And vita would need to average 300k from now til the end of the year to break 8 million worldwide. So lets discuss the likelihood of that.

If we make the assumption that the PS-Vita has sold 2.5 million units and there is 18 weeks left in the year.

To make 8 million it would need to average (roughly) 180,000 per week until November and 450,000 per week after that; which doesn't seem possible.

To make 6 million it would need to average (roughly) 110,000 per week until November and 300,000 per week after that; which seems possible but unlikely.

To make 4 million it would need to average 50,000 per week until November and 125,000 per week after that; which will certainly happen.

I'm thinking it will average 200k for the rest of the year and just sneak past 6 million. And if it can keep some good momentum with Soul sacrifice and Dragons crown in the spring I think sony can cut the price and officially "save it". 

The problem I see is that it is currently selling at around 35,000 units a week ... On weeks with big game releases over the next couple of months it may see spikes, and have higher sustained sales, but I think it will have difficulty averaging sales above (roughly) 75,000 units per week between now and the beginning of the November. When the Christmas shopping season begins the PS-Vita will likely sell at least 125,000 units a week and have a few big weeks selling in the 300,000 to 500,000 range, but I just don't think it can average over 225,000 units per week from November 1st to the end of the year.

 

Even if the PS-Vita does amazingly well and sells 2.5 Million units from November 1st to the end of the year, it would still have to average about 100,000 units a week from now until November to break 6 million which is substantially above the level it is currently selling at.

Well there's obviously a lot of factors still to be determined. Vita will start getting bundles with madden in about two weeks I think. And from there it will have a stream of bundles including LBP, AC, COD and PS all stars. I think one of the big determining factors will be how sony decides to advertise this holiday. Though on that front I at least am optimistic since they seem to realize they made a mistake advertising only to the 18-32 market. I could see the LBP bundle being a successfuly product for the holiday if promoted well. And of course they'll need a big game or two for Japan which I think is its most troubling market.