Nice Nintendo numbers overall
the others just meh

Wow, excellent opening for DQX! I don't know why some people were expecting a 2 million opening, since it's an MMO. Looks like there were about 30K Wii HW bundles then, as that's how much it increased from last week. DQX must have been slightly above SE's predictions if they had to increase server capacity already. Looking forward to how DQX holds up next week as well as Wii HW.

The regular 3ds holds steady at just over 40k and the LL is strong as well. Will we have a baseline of 40k for the 3ds and ??? for the LL? Would be very impressive. Obon coming up soon, so they should both get a boost.

Vita back under 10k on both trackers. (last week it was only under 10k on Famitsu) Pretty poor sales after the P4/White Vita boosts. Will it be able to outsell the PSP this year? Things are not looking good for it.

LBX crosses 100k on 3ds, I'm sure Level 5 must be happy with that.

Wow at Wii software (via Famitsu):

15./22. [WII] Wii Sports Resort # <SPT> (Nintendo) {2009.06.25} (¥4.800) - 11.545 / 2.946.049 (+42%)

26./33. [WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Definitive Edition # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2011.11.23} (¥5.040) - 6.170 / 261.185 (+48%)

28./34. [WII] Wii Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2010.07.08} (¥4.800) - 5.739 / 2.316.434 (+40%)

mmm yeah, I would have thought that by the second week the game would have sold 800k... But there is always to digital sales, but I doubr they will have sold 200k or more digital copies...

Hell, if Dragon Quest X made 2 million first week it would've been one of the most successful MMOs launches.

Very nice DQX FW numbers, it could make it to 800k lifetime. Also, bigger than expected hardware boost for Wii! I was expecting around 25k - 30k.

3DS sales are HUGE! It should easily pass PS3 before the end of 2012. Digital sales really need to be big for NSMB2, because even with its second week it's still below the DS version's FW.

All Nintendo consoles up and all Sony consoles down. Pretty good DQX, especially since its on a dead console.

If I were to give a reason, people would tell me that I'm jumping the gun and that I should wait for more numbers, but curves are more often than not dictated by the very first performances. Granted there are exceptions.

To actually answer.

First, Series fatigue. take a look at my post to kenology. That one should be straightforward enough.

Second, userbase and momentum.

Here are some dates and figures (Japan-specific):

Gen 7:

DS: December 2nd 2004

DS Lite: March 2nd 2006

NSMB: May 25 2006

Time: 15 months from launch to DSlite, 18 months to NSMB. 2 Christmasses.

Big DS games by NSMB release: Brain Age (2.4m), Brain Age 2 (2.4m), Animal Crossing WW (2.9m), English training (1m), MKart (1.4m), Big Brain Academy (1.3m), Tamagochi Connection (1m)

You can use this query here: 

(Note, these are only those charting the top 30 on that week. I don't have the other big games up until that point)

Gen 8:

3DS: February 26 2011

3DS LL: July 28 2012

NSMB2: July 28 2012

Time: 17 months from launch to NSMB2 and 3DS LL. 1 Christmas.

Big 3DS games by NSMB2 release: Pokemon B/W 2 (2.4m), DQ Monsters (0.8m), MK7 (1.8m), SM3DL (1.7m), MH3G (1.5m)

(You can use the same query as above, just replace bold with 3DS and 2012-07-28 respectively.)

Make of these variables what you will, but imho NSMB launched at a more favorable time regardless.

Third. The luster of the Touch Generation fades.

The DS had simultaneous success with Nintendogs and Brain Age in that time, so another argument could be a reduction in the charm of the "Touch Generation" phenomenon that the DS had. That was something the DS was flying on for a while back then, now the 3DS flies simply on the fact that it offers a great gaming selection to the Japanese.

Took long to do all this sorry for the delay, what's your take on it?

i was actualy refering to monster hunter tri.

According to who you are looking at, for next week's DQX numbers, I'd expect 88k from Famitsu and 92k from Media Create.

Wii HW will probably be 18k

I'll bet that by December 12th, their combined total will NOT be over 414k. See you in December lol