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Forums - Sony - Sony scales back expectations for Vita after weak sales performanc

It may be too early to state this, but it SEEMS like something drastic has to happen with vita sales or PSV may be the first handheld claimed by the Smartphone Revolution...



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VicViper said:
kowenicki said:


PSV 800k in 2 months (200k in last month)

PSP 880k in 2 months (200k in last month)

...so 1.6m in 2 months, but only 400k or so in the last month,

This leaves 10.4m to do in 10 months. 

That forecast is for shipment numbers, aren't they?

So that means its 1.4 for the first 3 months (Q1) - from their financials, leaving 10.6m for the next 9 months. Or I'm missing something?

EDIT: Beaten

With numbers like these, Vita will have a hard time rebounding;its lifetime sales are suffering as a result of inactivity. As it stands I can see it doing 65 million lifetime, and it is only that low because of this poor launch. Something makes me feel like Nintendo overpriced the 3DS on purpose so that this pricing issue would happen to Sony.

Japan has come through for the PSP with truly unbelievable support for the past 3 years. I'm not confident in a repeat of that, but maybe the 3DS will become saturated and the Vita can repeat what the PSP did again.



Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."

RolStoppable said:
Chark said:

Ah yes, I was mistaken about the revenue. I agree on the Yen and I wonder when the rest of the world will get itself in order and stop bolstering its strength. I still haven't seen strong enough evidence to determine the PSV is sellilng at a loss. There are far too many factors in their expenses in combination with weaker than expected sales on their profitable devices, which may or may not include the Vita. It would be nice if their spreadsheet could be guessed like that but as is you can't conclude that from this information. It's a stretch and a long one.

About those profits before WW PSV launch. Plenty of Vitas sold in the quarter before that and yet there was profit. If I was to use your standard to determine Vita's profitability I would use this as say that it is making a profit. Instead I'm using more reliable data from the cost breakdown to prove my point and there has not been any reasonable data to the contrary.

It was the holiday quarter where sales are high across the board and that means higher profits for already profitable systems. The PSV being sold only in Japan obviously isn't negatively impacted by a strong yen. Put these two factors together and that's why Sony's gaming unit could post a profit during that quarter.

The cost breakdown of the PSV really isn't reliable data, because the cost breakdown of the 3DS wasn't either. If I remember correctly, Hirai said that he expects to profit from Vita hardware within a couple of years or something like that. It's actually not hard to believe that the PSV is sold at a loss, given all the available information. It's more a matter of if you want to believe it or not.


So you admit your view on Vita not selling at a profit because you want to believe it isn't. Rather ill willed if you ask me. I "believe" it is because of the data available points to it. A second hand breakdown of the costs is the best data available. Was the 3DS breakdown proven wrong? That being $100 gave the system a $70 coushion but Nintendo declared it was selling at a loss. Vita at $160 has a $90 and $140 cushion. Assuming identicle costs for both console to the sale 3DS would have to be selling at an over $70 loss which would make it's original price of $250 bring in less than $10.

From this it is hard pressed to think that at least the 3G Vita is not selling for a profit and there is no way to determine Vita's effect from the entire PlayStation division's quarterly figures. You would need a proper breakdown.

Like Kowen said the three years to achieve profitability is for the Vita project and was falsly reported as a loss per system by journalists who misinterpreted or "misenterpreted" the quotes. Unfortunetly if Vita sales remain slow that three year mark could drag out.

System loss or profit aside, Vita is bringing in profits from software, accessories, and memory cards. It would be difficult to determine Vita is causing Sony losses with these sales mixed in and Vita's low level of hardware sales.



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

SaviorX said:
VicViper said:
kowenicki said:


PSV 800k in 2 months (200k in last month)

PSP 880k in 2 months (200k in last month)

...so 1.6m in 2 months, but only 400k or so in the last month,

This leaves 10.4m to do in 10 months. 

That forecast is for shipment numbers, aren't they?

So that means its 1.4 for the first 3 months (Q1) - from their financials, leaving 10.6m for the next 9 months. Or I'm missing something?

EDIT: Beaten

With numbers like these, Vita will have a hard time rebounding;its lifetime sales are suffering as a result of inactivity. As it stands I can see it doing 65 million lifetime, and it is only that low because of this poor launch. Something makes me feel like Nintendo overpriced the 3DS on purpose so that this pricing issue would happen to Sony.

Japan has come through for the PSP with truly unbelievable support for the past 3 years. I'm not confident in a repeat of that, but maybe the 3DS will become saturated and the Vita can repeat what the PSP did again.

I strongly doubt this sabatoge theory. Nintendo didn't really do itself many favors by having slow 3DS sales after launch. I suspect they anticipated better sales and aimed for more profit to offset the dropping Wii sales. There was also a strong anticipation that Sony's next handheld was going to be $300 or more. It is probably true the Vita's low price affected the 3DS price cut but it was reactionary.

With that said the 3DS should have been $200 from launch and remained so without a cut. Maybe if this was the case the handheld market wouldn't be so weak right now unless those smartphones are really taking over. Maybe this generation of young gamers are lost to the fads their parents experienced. I always thought the market would follow the advancement of tech but it seems we are in a strange place today.



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

RolStoppable said:
...

The losses in Sony's gaming unit must come from somewhere and the PSV is the most logical culprit. If you insist that the Vita is making a profit, you need to explain these losses somehow. There can't be four profitable systems in the gaming unit, yet overall a loss is posted.

Their expenses are more than just hardware and assembly for the consoles. They also pay people for marketing, accounting, legal, game development, supporting external game developers, developing new hardware and maintaining online. Any or all of those areas could be loss-making.

When we say hardware is profitable, surely it's sale price minus wholesale parts minus assembly and shipping costs. That doesn't preclude it making a loss as a business.

but you're Rol, so I suspect you know all that and I'm being trolled here.



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The problem is that they're making console games on a portable system when they should be making portable games on a portable system. Do people want something like Pokemon or Mario Kart to take with them on the bus, or do they want a scaled down Uncharted?



     
Games can and should tell stories and share ideas through their mechanics. This is the intrinsic element of the medium and this is how experiences should be crafted in video games. No company does this as well as Nintendo and their echoes from the past.
  Aurum Ring  Delano7  Ocarinahero032

Soleron said:

Their expenses are more than just hardware and assembly for the consoles. They also pay people for marketing, accounting, legal, game development, supporting external game developers, developing new hardware and maintaining online. Any or all of those areas could be loss-making.


R&D for new consoles, redesigns etc. as well. 



RolStoppable said:
Soleron said:

Their expenses are more than just hardware and assembly for the consoles. They also pay people for marketing, accounting, legal, game development, supporting external game developers, developing new hardware and maintaining online. Any or all of those areas could be loss-making.

When we say hardware is profitable, surely it's sale price minus wholesale parts minus assembly and shipping costs. That doesn't preclude it making a loss as a business.

but you're Rol, so I suspect you know all that and I'm being trolled here.

All these people in the first paragraph also had to be paid in calendar year 2011 when the gaming unit was profitable and I doubt that they suddenly got significantly bigger paychecks in calendar year 2012.

Also, Sony has been lossleading with their previous four systems, so why should the Vita suddenly be an exception? There's nothing about it that suggests that Sony has changed their overall gameplan.

Simple example: Suppose all those extra expenses are, as you say, fixed. Say $150 to employ all those people.

Last year product made $200 profit on $400 revenue.
This year  product  made $100 profit on $200 revenue. (Same profit per unit)

Last year overall: $200 - $150 = $50 profit
This year overall: $100 - $150 = $50 loss

Same number of people employed in other departments, same product profit, less unit sales can turn profit to loss. I think that's what happened to Sony, lower hardware and software unit sales, same profit margin and same other expenses.

If Sony can't increase Vita sales, they need to cut marketing and other things to match the new, smaller size of their actual business.



RolStoppable said:
Soleron said:

...

We would need to look at how much Sony's quarterly hardware and software sales were down year over year in calendar year 2012. Probably at a similar rate, but January to March saw a significantly bigger loss. That's when more PSVs were shipped overseas and the loss on each unit is recorded when Sony sells it to retailers. Of course, the same quarter had the PSV launch marketing campaign which is a bit more costly than the regular ongoing marketing of PlayStation products, but this alone probably does not account for the bigger loss.

OK. I'm not really arguing against you here. I have no idea whether Vita is profiting or not, just saying whether it does isn't likely to be a major contribution to Sony's huge losses.



RolStoppable said:
Soleron said:

Simple example: Suppose all those extra expenses are, as you say, fixed. Say $150 to employ all those people.

Last year product made $200 profit on $400 revenue.
This year  product  made $100 profit on $200 revenue. (Same profit per unit)

Last year overall: $200 - $150 = $50 profit
This year overall: $100 - $150 = $50 loss

Same number of people employed in other departments, same product profit, less unit sales can turn profit to loss. I think that's what happened to Sony, lower hardware and software unit sales, same profit margin and same other expenses.

If Sony can't increase Vita sales, they need to cut marketing and other things to match the new, smaller size of their actual business.

We would need to look at how much Sony's quarterly hardware and software sales were down year over year in calendar year 2012. Probably at a similar rate, but January to March saw a significantly bigger loss. That's when more PSVs were shipped overseas and the loss on each unit is recorded when Sony sells it to retailers. Of course, the same quarter had the PSV launch marketing campaign which is a bit more costly than the regular ongoing marketing of PlayStation products, but this alone probably does not account for the bigger loss.


The quarter we are looking at now is April through July. Did their gaming division post losses last quarter? During the Vita WW launch? Is it significantly different than this quarter?



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(