Chuva said: Like who exactly? Quote and reply, challenge the PoV. I abhor anonymous generalizations about posters. This person right here, who probably didn`t even read the article: DieAppleDie said: i will resume it for you guys WiiU is doomed Handhelds are doomed Nintendo fails did i miss something?

Okay, I thought as much. Next time just quote him and tell him "did you even read the article?". That would be better cause the alternative had us all guessing ;)

ill resume it for you guys

"Nintendo’s E3 presentations left many Wii U questions unanswered a year after its official introduction, and only six months before its release. Although Nintendo seems proud that it “never” reveals details at E3, we think that additional information on technical specifications, release dates, and pricing would have provided much needed clarity into the company’s long-term fortunes. Also, we remain skeptical that the Wii U will receive widespread third-party support."

WiiU is doomed

"handheld hardware sales will continue to decline due to migration of the casual gamer to smart phones and tablets"

Handhelds are doomed

"Nintendo likely expects its difficult start to FY:13 to be overcome by the Wii U’s release and a rebound for handheld sales, assumptions that we view as unrealistic despite the release of the 3DS XL (Japan in July, US in August) and potential price cuts."
"Nintendo’s E3 presentations left many Wii U questions unanswered a year after its official introduction, and only six months before its release."
"We cannot assign a P/E, given the company’s low potential to generate significant profits in light of declining product demand and unfavorable F/X."

Nintendo fails

did i miss something?

happydolphin said: mrstickball said: So how is he wrong so far on such statements? All of his statements lead up to the big picture of EPS and other things. He may be wrong about the how's and why's, but he's rarely wrong about the big picture. In his field, that is what matters. No industry person has ever cared about Pachter's statements about a price cut. What they do care about is the total economic picture of the Big 3 and other players, and base their decisions off of that. Additionally, I don't find any of those three statements to be unlikely, nor biased, nor wrong thus far. At this point I don't expect you to see it any different no matter the evidence brought forth to be honest. If you agree that COD is what forced Nintendo to come up with the UpadPro, I'm all out of patience. If you're really curious, go to the articles I linked to and you'll see my replies there. @this mrstickball said: Everyone forgets that fiscal guidance is Pachter's ACTUAL job.  No, not everyone forgets. I'm very aware. Nevertheless it was a radical difference from his usual rantings, so as such I was pleasantly surprised by his professionalism as compared to what I usually read of him.

What evidence?

What evidence did Nintendo need for the UpadPro? Probably the fact that no major IP released with a proper port to the Wii's control scheme. COD is simply the figurehead of that. Half of the developers last generation didn't push their IPs into the Wii for that reason among others (the other primarily being cost to port due to graphical limitations).

Weak third party support? Which developers and publishers have you talked to? What did they say about their support of the console?

Wii U not next-gen? That should be pretty obvious. The power of the WiiU is certainly not next-gen. Heck, the $99 OUYA is coming with similar horsepower out of the box. That should tell you something about what Nintendo put into the system.

 

In this case, Pachter is going to be right. The WiiU will sell <50m units through its lifespan, and Nintendo will be in a very precarious situation, as their handheld market will continue to deteriorate.

mrstickball said: What evidence? What evidence did Nintendo need for the UpadPro? Probably the fact that no major IP released with a proper port to the Wii's control scheme. COD is simply the figurehead of that. Half of the developers last generation didn't push their IPs into the Wii for that reason among others (the other primarily being cost to port due to graphical limitations).

Bagh, have you forgotten that the Call of Duty series was released on the Wii for the last two major iterations?

Have you forgotten that the Wii had its own Classic Controller? Really, really, what point are you defending??

Weak third party support? Which developers and publishers have you talked to? What did they say about their support of the console?

We know little to nothing about 3rd party support this far. Will you say "Because there is nothing to show"??

Rather, the little we know is that out of the box the WiiU will have a good majority of the big IPs coming multiplatform alongside the 360 and the PS3, as well as not inconsiderable exclusives from Ubisoft such as Ghost Recon Online, Rayman Legends and ZombiU.

They have also said that they will reveal _even more_ third party support when they release the price and release date.

That is not even tackling the future support of the WiiU when the successors to the 360 and to the PS3 release. So what IS your point?

Wii U not next-gen? That should be pretty obvious. The power of the WiiU is certainly not next-gen. Heck, the $99 OUYA is coming with similar horsepower out of the box. That should tell you something about what Nintendo put into the system.

The Ouya doesn't have a control with a screen does it?

What are the specs of the WiiU for you to claim as much about the OUYA? Nintendo said that they have put in more horsepower into this system, so not it is not pretty obvious.

That's without even explaining that generations are not defined by power but by relevance in a period of history. Of course I understand what you mean, but you are still claiming on uncertain ground, just like Pachter. In other words, he has no idea whether what he says is true.

In this case, Pachter is going to be right. The WiiU will sell <50m units through its lifespan, and Nintendo will be in a very precarious situation, as their handheld market will continue to deteriorate.

And as usual, I am quite confident that Pachter will be very wrong once again. The man simply does not understand the nature of the business, especially not Nintendo's strategy, and he never will.

The funny thing is that I made this thread to shed positive light on him. I guess we just can't get away without talking about what an arse he is after all.

happydolphin said: mrstickball said: What evidence? What evidence did Nintendo need for the UpadPro? Probably the fact that no major IP released with a proper port to the Wii's control scheme. COD is simply the figurehead of that. Half of the developers last generation didn't push their IPs into the Wii for that reason among others (the other primarily being cost to port due to graphical limitations). Bagh, have you forgotten that the Call of Duty series was released on the Wii for the last two major iterations? Have you forgotten that the Wii had its own Classic Controller? Really, really, what point are you defending?? Weak third party support? Which developers and publishers have you talked to? What did they say about their support of the console? We know little to nothing about 3rd party support this far. Will you say "Because there is nothing to show"?? Rather, the little we know is that out of the box the WiiU will have a good majority of the big IPs coming multiplatform alongside the 360 and the PS3, as well as not inconsiderable exclusives from Ubisoft such as Ghost Recon Online, Rayman Legends and ZombiU. They have also said that they will reveal _even more_ third party support when they release the price and release date. That is not even tackling the future support of the WiiU when the successors to the 360 and to the PS3 release. So what IS your point? Wii U not next-gen? That should be pretty obvious. The power of the WiiU is certainly not next-gen. Heck, the $99 OUYA is coming with similar horsepower out of the box. That should tell you something about what Nintendo put into the system. The Ouya doesn't have a control with a screen does it? What are the specs of the WiiU for you to claim as much about the OUYA? Nintendo said that they have put in more horsepower into this system, so not it is not pretty obvious. That's without even explaining that generations are not defined by power but by relevance in a period of history. Of course I understand what you mean, but you are still claiming on uncertain ground, just like Pachter. In other words, he has no idea whether what he says is true. In this case, Pachter is going to be right. The WiiU will sell <50m units through its lifespan, and Nintendo will be in a very precarious situation, as their handheld market will continue to deteriorate. And as usual, I am quite confident that Pachter will be very wrong once again. The man simply does not understand the nature of the business, especially not Nintendo's strategy, and he never will. The funny thing is that I made this thread to shed positive light on him. I guess we just can't get away without talking about what an arse he is after all.

1. The point is that the Wii had the additional pro controllers as an afterthought, fragmenting the usage of such a controller for classic, non-motion games. Such fragmentation makes it difficult to adopt a game to a console. Thus why 80% of major IPs didn't release on the Wii (among the other issues).

2. So you believe the screen comprises $200 of costs for the WiiU? Nintendo published their spec sheet already. As far as I've seen from it and developer comments, it features a multi-core CPU with horsepower similar to the PS3/X360, which is around the level of a TEGRA 3 chip which the OUYA has.

Here's the sheet: http://www.computerandvideogames.com/352365/full-wii-u-specs-allegedly-leaked-at-e3-tri-core-cpu-15gb-ram-8gb-flash/

As far as we know, that's never been debunked. This close to launch, its reasonable to assume its correct within a few percent.

If a console is defined by its period of relevance, then the WiiU looks to be the Dreamcast of the generation. It will be underpowered, and will get dwarfed by the bigger consoles which bring better branding, IPs and likely even price to the fight.

3. I think you'd be surprised about Pachter on this one. If you take off your blinders and look at Nintendo's history of console development - how cyclical their products are - you'd understand that they're positioned for another downswing like what we saw with the N64.

The WiiU will have a launch as tepid as the 3DS, with a similar amount of 3rd party support. Do you remember when everyone was brimming with excitement that the 3DS had tons of support from 3rd parties? Where is it now? Where are the major IPs? They're on smartphones..

mrstickball said: 3. I think you'd be surprised about Pachter on this one. If you take off your blinders and look at Nintendo's history of console development - how cyclical their products are - you'd understand that they're positioned for another downswing like what we saw with the N64.

I don't have blinders on, and there is no cycle. It happened once, you don't make a pattern out of that.

What we do know however is that Nintendo's portable business has always thrived. As such, the Wii and WiiU piggybacking on that trend is a recipe for success if trends are anything to go by.

happydolphin said: mrstickball said: 3. I think you'd be surprised about Pachter on this one. If you take off your blinders and look at Nintendo's history of console development - how cyclical their products are - you'd understand that they're positioned for another downswing like what we saw with the N64. I don't have blinders on, and there is no cycle. It happened once, you don't make a pattern out of that. What we do know however is that Nintendo's portable business has always thrived. As such, the Wii and WiiU piggybacking on that trend is a recipe for success if trends are anything to go by.

Do you honestly believe the 3DS is thriving right now, and has built up enough success to continue it for the next 5-6 years?

mrstickball said: Do you honestly believe the 3DS is thriving right now, and has built up enough success to continue it for the next 5-6 years?

If trends are any indicator, we have nothing to worry about except the 3DS selling at a loss. As far as sales volume goes, the 3DS is on course to sell fine. The DS also lagged one year behind the Japan thread in the West. Put it this way if Nintendo doesn't hit it out of the park this holiday season in the west, that's when I'll start to worry.

However if Nintendo fails to succeed with the WiiU, it will have nothing to do with past trends, but with modern factors such as the rise of cheap, tablet and social gaming, nothing more.

Still, I believe Nintendo will do well since its systems and games are now following the recipe that attracts sales on both the home and the console front.

happydolphin said: mrstickball said: Do you honestly believe the 3DS is thriving right now, and has built up enough success to continue it for the next 5-6 years? If trends are any indicator, we have nothing to worry about except the 3DS selling at a loss. As far as sales volume goes, the 3DS is on course to sell fine. The DS also lagged one year behind the Japan thread in the West. Put it this way if Nintendo doesn't hit it out of the park this holiday season in the west, that's when I'll start to worry. However if Nintendo fails to succeed with the WiiU, it will have nothing to do with past trends, but with modern factors such as the rise of cheap, tablet and social gaming, nothing more. Still, I believe Nintendo will do well since its systems and games are now following the recipe that attracts sales on both the home and the console front.

So to visit this thread after December, what do you consider a failure for 3DS sales in the November-Decembe timeframe? Same for WiiU (although that would be harder to judge since its likely to launch in the November timeframe worldwide).

mrstickball said: So to visit this thread after December, what do you consider a failure for 3DS sales in the November-Decembe timeframe? Same for WiiU (although that would be harder to judge since its likely to launch in the November timeframe worldwide).

Looking at the trends I would say

 

For 3DS, I'm being demanding. I'd say if it doesn't reach 9m LTD in the USA by this christmas it's a failure. The DS, in comparison, sold 9 million from Nov 2004 to Dec 2006 (the year of the DSLite and NSMB). Similar prediction for europe, not analyzed though.

Prediction Stats:

The 3DS gets 10 months less to make the same numbers and 1 holiday boost less. 

DS was released for 25 months (Nov 2004 to Dec 2006) w 3 holiday boosts by the time it reached 9 million.

DS was released for 13 months (Nov 2004 to Dec 2005) w 2 holiday boosts by the time it reached 4 million

3DS was released for 15 months (Mar 2011 to Jul 2012) w 1 holiday boost by the time it reached 6 million.

 

For WiiU, I expect it to surpass the sales of the Wii at launch globally, but it would be a failure if it only did 2/3s of the Wii's figures:

Prediction Stats:

Globally the Wii sold 3m units worldwide from launch to the end of the year.

The WiiU would have to sell less than 2m units from end of November to end of December for me to consider it a failure.