Market Analysis: Nintendo Earnings Preview by somebody we know

[mrstickball]

happydolphin said:

mrstickball said:

So how is he wrong so far on such statements? All of his statements lead up to the big picture of EPS and other things. He may be wrong about the how's and why's, but he's rarely wrong about the big picture. In his field, that is what matters. No industry person has ever cared about Pachter's statements about a price cut. What they do care about is the total economic picture of the Big 3 and other players, and base their decisions off of that.

Additionally, I don't find any of those three statements to be unlikely, nor biased, nor wrong thus far.

At this point I don't expect you to see it any different no matter the evidence brought forth to be honest. If you agree that COD is what forced Nintendo to come up with the UpadPro, I'm all out of patience.

If you're really curious, go to the articles I linked to and you'll see my replies there.

@this

mrstickball said:
Everyone forgets that fiscal guidance is Pachter's ACTUAL job. 

No, not everyone forgets. I'm very aware. Nevertheless it was a radical difference from his usual rantings, so as such I was pleasantly surprised by his professionalism as compared to what I usually read of him.

What evidence?

What evidence did Nintendo need for the UpadPro? Probably the fact that no major IP released with a proper port to the Wii's control scheme. COD is simply the figurehead of that. Half of the developers last generation didn't push their IPs into the Wii for that reason among others (the other primarily being cost to port due to graphical limitations).

Weak third party support? Which developers and publishers have you talked to? What did they say about their support of the console?

Wii U not next-gen? That should be pretty obvious. The power of the WiiU is certainly not next-gen. Heck, the $99 OUYA is coming with similar horsepower out of the box. That should tell you something about what Nintendo put into the system.

 

In this case, Pachter is going to be right. The WiiU will sell <50m units through its lifespan, and Nintendo will be in a very precarious situation, as their handheld market will continue to deteriorate.