| mrstickball said:
So to visit this thread after December, what do you consider a failure for 3DS sales in the November-Decembe timeframe? Same for WiiU (although that would be harder to judge since its likely to launch in the November timeframe worldwide). |
Looking at the trends I would say
For 3DS, I'm being demanding. I'd say if it doesn't reach 9m LTD in the USA by this christmas it's a failure. The DS, in comparison, sold 9 million from Nov 2004 to Dec 2006 (the year of the DSLite and NSMB). Similar prediction for europe, not analyzed though.
Prediction Stats:
The 3DS gets 10 months less to make the same numbers and 1 holiday boost less.
DS was released for 25 months (Nov 2004 to Dec 2006) w 3 holiday boosts by the time it reached 9 million.
DS was released for 13 months (Nov 2004 to Dec 2005) w 2 holiday boosts by the time it reached 4 million
3DS was released for 15 months (Mar 2011 to Jul 2012) w 1 holiday boost by the time it reached 6 million.
For WiiU, I expect it to surpass the sales of the Wii at launch globally, but it would be a failure if it only did 2/3s of the Wii's figures:
Prediction Stats:
Globally the Wii sold 3m units worldwide from launch to the end of the year.
The WiiU would have to sell less than 2m units from end of November to end of December for me to consider it a failure.
