Well Nintendo even if they completely fail will probably still make a profit as is their way.
Microsoft will refuse to leave, because they see this less as a battle of videogame consoles and more a battle of entertainment PCs.
Sony... I guess could leave,but I don't see why. PlayStation is still arguably the strongest brand name in videogames and compared to everything else Sony is doing right now... videogames seem like a relative bright spot. Even if they do bad, Sony will likely stay in it, because PlayStation will be one of the least ugliest dogs in show.
If Sony were to spin off the gaming division into "Playstation Corp" that would still count as staying in right?
Either way, if I have to vote from the above, I'd pick Sony as most likely... but honestly, I don't think it's likely any of them are forced out next generation, unless there just isn't a generation after that.