With all the rumors about the next generation, things are starting to look scary. It doesn't look like each of the Big 3 will have their own sustainable market like this generation. Everyone seems a lot more ambitious this time with the manufacturers going after every market out there. There won't be any untapped markets for each manufacturer to find safety in. And with there being less and less exclusives, there's going to be less and less incentive to buy more than one console. I'm not the best analysist or anything like that, but it looks to me like there's going to only be room for one big-selling (50m+) console next generation.

I think there's going to be one console that does everything the other two does plus its own extra features. This is going to leave the other two with little redeeming qualities. The manufacturers are extremely aggressive and I don't think they'll be room for even the slightest of failure. I hope I'm wrong though. I'd like to see a repeat of this generation in terms of install base. I honestly don't want anyone to be eliminated, but that could happen. I don't know what's going to happen, I'm just curious as to what you guys think about this.

What do you think? Will someone be eliminated from the console race? If so the who?

I don't think any of them will exit. If one of them exits though I think it would be Micrsoft since they are changing their target market. PlayStation is a big part of Sony now and is one of their main focuses on revenue so I don't see that changing unless they literally go out of business. Nintendo will not exit unless Mario simply just manages to turn people off which will not happen.

Maybe, maybe not. Like with most markets though, eventually one of them will establish themselves as the dominant player in the market and the other 2 will wither away into irrelevance (kinda like survival of the fittest). I think this will probably happen in the gen after next gen though. Also, I think the company which will eventually become the dominant player in the console market is Microsoft as they have shown the most adaptability to the times.

I didn't vote none, as that is a cowards pick. I don't see Sony or Nintendo going anywhere. Gaming is what they do, more so Nintendo. MicroSoft is the only one I can actually see leaving the market, so I vote for them.

i think all three will be around in some form but i think consoles as an entity will die out within the next 10 years. things will be more of a service oriented architecture.

falling in line with that belief. nintendo will have to go third party as they've shown no willingness to develop services. sony is 50/50...we'll see if this gaikai thing works out for them. MS will be around thanks to ties to windows. apple/google are probably leading the pack.

You're right. Everyone is going to pick the m

Going by financials (which is pretty much the only thing to go by), Sony should be the obvious choice here. I don't expect them to leave the market anytime soon though, and as far as we know they may go back to dominating the next generation.

Microsoft is the least likely one to leave (looking far into the future). Even at loss, their gaming division may still promote their other devices and services while also being promoted by them.

if anything there will be a new competitor (google plz)

Well I don't think any of the Big 3 are leaving but since I have to pick one, Sony. Their financial situation is horrible. Despite being a far larger company, Sony has lower market cap than Nintendo. They are in debt. Both Nintendo and especially MS are sitting on mountains of cash. Sony is sitting on a mountain of debt.

It's weird. I feel like my financial sense (I hardly have one xD) and my personal opinions are fighting each other.

Financially
I feel Sony is in the most trouble. Granted, their gaming division is one of the most profitable. So I suppose even if things start getting worse, they would just restructure a bit and put more effort in focusing on the Playstation brand.
Microsoft is probably in the best position as they obviously have more money at their disposal.
Nintendo is sort of in the middle. They have more money than Sony and less than Microsoft.

Personal opinions.
I feel/think Microsoft will focus on the casual crowd too much next gen (which is the same group who are now mostly using smartphones and tablets to do their gaming) I think a lot of their core fans will be disappointed with the direction they are taking, and will jump ship to either Sony or Nintendo.

I believe Nintendo is in a good enough position to start next gen but it doesn't seem like they are doing anything to become more than a machine to play games. Many have already said (though I don't know if it's true) that next gen will be defined by a consoles abilities to do more than simply play games. I'm talking about becoming a multimedia hub (which I could care less about, but apparently it's important). Their 3rd party support will be very important to how people view the console. Will it deliver on the promise to please core gamers? Or will it be a Wii repeat?

Finally I think Sony is going to focus heavily on the core gamer next gen. I think a lot of Microsoft fans who are displeased with the new casual stance of the 720 will find themselves in Sony's camps. It'll be a battle between Nintendo and Microsoft over the family oriented/casual crowd (not saying they don't have core games, but I see both of them being a lot like the Wii was this gen). I believe Sony will see this and simply establish the Playstation as being THE console for the gaming enthusiasts out there, all while delivering the multimedia aspect that is supposedly to be expected of consoles next gen.

Just my guess :p