Talking from a marketshare perspective, not financially.

I've seen some people express the opinion that MS are in the best situation to be no.1 next generation, and that the Xbox brand is very powerful at the moment. MS themselves seem to have set 100m+ consoles sold as their goal for next gen, according to the document that was leaked.

Now, Nintendo is launching the WiiU this year and Sony have stated that they won't be last again:

http://www.computerandvideogames.com/342377/sony-confident-of-launching-ps4-before-xbox-720-report-claims/

I have my doubts about MS being in the best situation to be no.1 if they launch last. I'm not saying that Ninty or Sony are, because I can see them both selling below or above expectations. I just have the same feeling about MS, I don't have the feeling that their in the best position or that the Xbox brand is the strongest, they could sell more or they could sell less than this gen. Even though they would probably launch a mere couple of months after PS4, I'm not sure its best for MS to lose the headstart they had this gen.

If we look at average sales per week since the launch of each console, we have this:

Wii 326000

PS3 221000*

360 195000

*(since Japanese launch, had it launched in Europe in 2006 the number would be slightly higher).

X360 is last. You may say that the Xbox brand has grown over the years, and it's probably true. It was the no.1 console WW last year, but with a tiny lead over PS3, and it has been consistently outsold all through 2012 by Sony's console. Wii was a huge success that died quicker than usual and we don't know how WiiU will fare.

My point is Xbox is not such a powerful brand. It is in NA, but it is much weaker in non-English speaking countries and nonexistent in Japan. X360 has a chance of being 3rd this gen when all is said and done, that with the early launch. If both Nintendo and Sony launch their consoles before X720, I have my doubts that the Xbox brand could carry the X720 to being no.1 WW.

Long story short: If PS4 starts the gen outselling X720 weekly like PS3 does with X360, and WiiU sells well (not even necessarilly Wii levels) for the first 3 years like the Wii did, then it will be very difficult for the X720 to pull off being the no.1 console WW.

What do you guys think? Can MS afford to be last? What will make the Xbox brand grow next gen? Who do you think will be no.1 WW? As it is, I give each company 33% chances, perhaps Nintendo has a slight edge. Either way, I'm sure we'll have 3 consoles with healthy sales.

As much as I hate Microsoft. I do believe they are in a position to do very well next gen. They have NA wrapped around their little finger and while Japan shuns the 360, NA is a much bigger market.

Nintendo has always been kind of unpredictable. Like you said nobody knows for sure how the Wii U will do. (I hope well)

Sony has come a really long way since it's PS3 launch. I think people are starting to realize that Sony offers a very healthy variety of games to the core gamer and I believe they will continue this trend for next gen as well.

Basically I'm hoping WiiU will do well, and even though 3rd party may jump on board, i'm guess the main driving force for Nintendo will be (as always) Nintendos 1st party games. I'm guessing/hoping the Nextbox will try to be more like the Wii was this gen and compete strictly for the casual market with kinect while alienating their hardcore fans, and I believe Sony will make the push with the "We cater to core gamers!" mentality. Possibly taking in those fans from Microsoft who don't like the path the Nextbox has taken.

Then again I could be dead wrong :p

I feel like ms had a real advantage being the first and cheapest this generation. If the rumors are true I think ms could really be screwing themselves. Rumors like: no used games, kinect 2, and required live contracts.

Xbox really became the shooter box of north america, and if cod dies like tony hawk and guitar hero, ms might be in trouble.

But then again they may have built up a loyal fan base that refuses to give up gears and halo.

There are short term trends, like looking at sales just this gen, and there are long term trends like looking at multiple generations. If you do that you see that the Xbox 360 sold tons more than the original Xbox while the PS3 has sold less than the PS2 and less than the PSX. Xbox is expanding and Playstation is contracting.

Last gen a developer could produce a PS2 game and not feel the need to port it. The PS2 was an island in and of itself. Now 3rd party devs can't rely on the PS3. They don't just need to port it to Xbox 360, but instead often see their biggest sales outside of PS3.

The market has changed, there is no longer a dominating machine with a monopoly on the market. It's a three horse race from now on and you should expect a photo finish.

I believe so. However, knowing that MS is a profit company, they would probably launch a lower standard, cheaper console.

BUT then again, if put in a position of loosing market share, they would probably develop a kick-ass console different to everyone else's. Like what they did with the highly praised Nokia Lumia 900.

That's pretty much what I'm expecting.

Honestly I used to think a few years back MS would very likely win the next generation, but now I believe Sony has got the momentum again and could come out on top once more. In the end I think the next gen winner will boil down to how big of an advantage Durango has over Orbis on US/UK, and vice-versa for Europe and the rest of the world. 

I expect all 3 consoles to be relatively close to each other sales wise (X3 & PS4 within 3-4 Mill of each other when the gen ends) and the WiiU slightly lower than these two.

(Microsoft taking N.A again, and Sony taking Europe again, so these two will annul each other out quite a bit)

So yeah, MS can afford to launch last, but then again if Sony launches last it shouldn't cause them too much harm either*.

*If they have a better launch plan than what was shown by the PS3.

"My point is Xbox is not such a powerful brand.":

You're just plain wrong there, like I previously stated, N.A and Europe basically annul each other out for X360 and PS3, so one country (Japan) favouring PS3 does not mean Xbox isn't a "powerful" brand, cause if we look at it like that, neither is PS3 because it's a ton behind in countries favouring X360. (Somehow language spoken in a country is now a measurement of brand success?!)

I don't mean to post this as trolling, but Microsoft have a strong chance of finishing just last this generation, despite launching more than a year before the two competitors.

Their head start gained them so much momentum despite the RROD fiasco, and I feel like they're losing that momentum at the moment. They seem to be trying to cater to two fanbases (casuals and more hardcore gamers) and winning neither.

Meanwhile, on the flipside, Sony seemed to lose all of their momentum going into this generation are have slowly been gaining it back over time, to the point today where they're within overtaking distance of the 360.

If Sony launch their new console before Microsoft, I think MS will finish dead last by a good 6+ million next generation. The Xbox brand has grown, yes, but it's still contained mostly in North America.

That said, I don't think Sony will launch before Microsoft. Not by any significant amount of time, anyway. I think they'll both be within 3 months of each other. Also, even though one console may triumph over the other, I think we'd see a repeat of this generation where it's just too close to be worth noting.

I don't think MS will be last by more than a few weeks. The next Playstation will release at the end of 2013 just like the next Xbox. I also think that it depends on many things. If both consoles offer all the same again then the cheapest one will gain more market share. Then the one with the most interresting exclusives coupled with 3rd party games will secure the first/second position.

I do believe though that the 3 consoles will share similarities like WiiUPad/Vita/Smartglass so most games offer the same experiences. But the core consoles will be more unique. MS's next console will come packed with Kinect 2 allowing devs to take full advantage of the Kinect and thus offering gameplay elements not available on other consoles. The same could be said about Move 2 but I believe it'll be optional again and will share games with WiiU (some devs might even make games only for PS4/WiiU and make a different version for Xbox8 because of Kinect being too different.

People think MS will not create more exclusives next gen but they can't be more wrong. They'll have to. Mainly because the next version of Kinect will help them secure domination in America. Building games not possible on the competition will be key at the start of next gen.

It will all depends on what the next consoles have to offer and at what price. Noone will repeat Sony's ridiculous PS3 launch price and I don't think WiiU will be that popular. Sony has to come up with more than just exclusives if they want to compete agains't Microsoft. Kinect, Smartglass and all Live has to offer just stole America's heart. And seriously, even if they are mostly popular in America, They are about even in Europe and Sony tremple MS in Japan but it's Japan, not the powerhouse gaming wise it once was...

I don't know if Microsoft will be first next gen(though I do believe they have the best chance)

I don't think MS will have to great start that it had this gen; retaining to its 3rd party support. what made the 360 such a force in NA and EU was it's stellar 3rd party support and nabbing from key exclusives from it's main competitor Sony. With Ninty supposedly going for the core gamers/3rd party support and Sony getting some good 3rd party titles/support later this gen might make it tougher for MS to just throw money around and aquire titles. And hopefully Sony won't have another disaster launch which made many people jump ship.

the only fear is that MS becomes to involved with their next console being more multi-media then what people actually buy their console for; GAMES, I say this because their recent E3 was kind of a drag and they spent too much time on all the networks/companies/etc. that will be included to their services and that's where I think MS might be playing with a little bit a fire here; most people interests in what MS in providing already have some these features on their Ipads/netbooks/ TV's/etc.(though granted they are integrating their features with these devices...and smartglass might take off)

The only thing I think MS needs to improve on is its first-party development, I think it's kind of a common thing that MS hasn't been particularly strong in this section in the later half of this gen....lets just hope that MS is saving up from next gen

though I think the Race will be real close this gen; maybe a 5-7 mil lead on whoever takes first place