Talking from a marketshare perspective, not financially.
I've seen some people express the opinion that MS are in the best situation to be no.1 next generation, and that the Xbox brand is very powerful at the moment. MS themselves seem to have set 100m+ consoles sold as their goal for next gen, according to the document that was leaked.
Now, Nintendo is launching the WiiU this year and Sony have stated that they won't be last again:
I have my doubts about MS being in the best situation to be no.1 if they launch last. I'm not saying that Ninty or Sony are, because I can see them both selling below or above expectations. I just have the same feeling about MS, I don't have the feeling that their in the best position or that the Xbox brand is the strongest, they could sell more or they could sell less than this gen. Even though they would probably launch a mere couple of months after PS4, I'm not sure its best for MS to lose the headstart they had this gen.
If we look at average sales per week since the launch of each console, we have this:
Wii 326000
PS3 221000*
360 195000
*(since Japanese launch, had it launched in Europe in 2006 the number would be slightly higher).
X360 is last. You may say that the Xbox brand has grown over the years, and it's probably true. It was the no.1 console WW last year, but with a tiny lead over PS3, and it has been consistently outsold all through 2012 by Sony's console. Wii was a huge success that died quicker than usual and we don't know how WiiU will fare.
My point is Xbox is not such a powerful brand. It is in NA, but it is much weaker in non-English speaking countries and nonexistent in Japan. X360 has a chance of being 3rd this gen when all is said and done, that with the early launch. If both Nintendo and Sony launch their consoles before X720, I have my doubts that the Xbox brand could carry the X720 to being no.1 WW.
Long story short: If PS4 starts the gen outselling X720 weekly like PS3 does with X360, and WiiU sells well (not even necessarilly Wii levels) for the first 3 years like the Wii did, then it will be very difficult for the X720 to pull off being the no.1 console WW.
What do you guys think? Can MS afford to be last? What will make the Xbox brand grow next gen? Who do you think will be no.1 WW? As it is, I give each company 33% chances, perhaps Nintendo has a slight edge. Either way, I'm sure we'll have 3 consoles with healthy sales.
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