I agree with Pyro (somewhat). WiiU's gamepad (it's main selling feature) is too complex for casuals and too WiiU is too casual for core. Nintendo has put themselves out of an audience except for diehard Nintendo fans which gives WiiU sales of 20M tops (similar to GC).

Unlike DS/Wii there is nothing really original about WiiU. Touchscreens are in almost every house already. Asymetric gameplay? Had that with GC (PacMan Vs and others with Gameboy connection). DS had innovative games like Nintendogs/Brain Age to bring in new audiences. Wii had Wii Sports. WiiU so far has nothing of the sort.


I disagree about no Asymetric game hitting 10m. NintendoLand will. Probably the only one though.

Next gen is Microsoft's to win (or lose). A more powerful Kinect with a well executed plan will steal the casual market and MS is capable of keeping the core. MS problem will also be to come out with truly innovative gameplay to truly excite people about the new Kinect. I expect Sony to continue with the losing path they've been following with PSP/PS3/PSVita. More power. Fewer sales.

$299 (or less) is a required stipulation for the bet.  First, I do believe that they will launch for that price, and second, even though $329 or even $349 is realistically not that much more, $299 is still the maximum sweet spot for a mass-market console price.  Many people may choose to wait for price drops if it's higher than that. 

In other words, if it retails for higher than $299, I would not be fully confident in my prediction coming true.  So take it or leave it.

Those games had ridiculous additional hardware requirements. I remember this one Final Fantasy game where every player needed a GBA. I never played any of those games and I think nearly nobody else did. THIS asymmetric experience comes out of the box so everyone owning a Wii U is able to experience this.

I agree that the next generation is Microsofts to lose. Kinect has the potential to appeal to the casual market much more than the Wii U tablet. But there are some problems. The Kinect 2.0 will not be a new experience, many casuals might be satisfied with their 360K. The Wii U on the other hand is a new approach to console gaming and might awake some curiosity. Microsoft could also lose some of their core audience to Nintendo and most notably Sony. They only have like 3-4 notable exclusive "core" IP's so the multiplats and the kinect adventures might not be enough content to keep thise audience, especially since Sony has a lot of appealing exclusive software for core gamers. They even started to kinectify some of their core IP's which might alienate even more core gamers. Then there is the paid online, the media hub approach blablabla. I just want to say that there are a lot of question marks concerning next generation and we just don't know how the masses will react to every approach.

I think the next gen will be wide open, as the big 3 will be wanting to learn from past mistakes and each will be staking a genuine claim for your hard earned cash. I also reckon that like the PS2, Xbox and Gamecube they will all pretty close in the graphics dept too. Like i said before its who can inovate the best will win, which points favouribly in Nintendos direction. Im quite happy with this gen at present as i have a shit load of Wii, 3DS and PS3 games to get through, so i will be letting the WiiU have a good 6 months/ year on the market before i think of making a purchase. one things for sure i havent got the funds for multiple consoles next gen so price will be a big factor too, another thing going in Nintendos favour if the past is anything to go by.

So, can I quote you as saying this?

Just curious, as I'm kinda keeping a mental note of all of the people who actually believe this.

I actually agree partly on the point, I don't think the WiiU is the right way to go. I do think that ignoring any GPU/CPU spec stuff, it could be an outstanding console for both casual players (who would like any app-like touch screen games, as well as motion controls and Nintendo's staple "for everyone" games like MK and SMB) and 'hardcore' players alike. However the fact is, developers of 'mature' games really wouldn't give a damn whatever Nintendo does, while publishers are either scared of competing against Nintendo, or for multiplatform games will only go so far to push them onto Nintendo's systems (ie the power disparity with WiiU to PS4/X720 needs to be far less than that with Wii to PS360 so that all multiplats can be ported easily without having to build seperate versions)

However, I don't believe the market will allow for a system to sell as low as 20 million anymore without it being from a company about to leave the business (which Nintendo is certainly not in that position) or from a new to the market company.... so even if Wii U is a 'failure' in the market compared to the next Sony/MS systems, I don't think it's possible for it to not surpass the N64, and I think it doubt that it won't manage at least SNES figures. It's pure guesswork to put an estimate on the lifetime sales of the Wii U so early, particularly without any info on it's competition... but based on the agressive strategies of Sony/MS all through this gen, I don't think it will match the Wii for sales potential, and would peg it around 60-70 million lifetime.

As I have done in past predictions, I will make it into a kind of box & whisker plot:

Minimum I believe possible <<< Expected sales range <<< Max I believe possible.

Wii U : 30 million <<< 60-70 million <<< 150 million

The 150 million scenario would involve the Wii U surprising everyone by selling like the Wii did, except with a year or two headstart it would build enough presence to force 3rd parties to give a damn. It's what i believe the Wii would be closing in on by now if the launches of the Wii and X360 were swapped.

I like this. I would personally put it at this box & whisker plot:

Wii U: 50mil <<< 80-100mil <<< 140mil

The Wii has had 7 20mil+ global sellers.  The PS3 & Xbox 360 have had none....what's your point? 

What the hell is going on up in this thread?

You can't make predictions on gaming, we are all a fickle lot. I used to love Nintendo. Now I don't and literally can't stand anything they put out these days. One minute Nintendo was a sinking ship, the next flying higher than all the rest.

The WiiU could be a flop, it could be a wild success, or it could even just be and also ran. Who knows. We can only know really what we do/don't want and possibly what our friends do/don't want.

I won't touch the WiiU or the 3DS with a 10ft pole, neither would most of my friends. That doesn't say much about what the rest of the world will do.

In Summary: People claiming the WiiU and Nintendo are Doomed and people claiming WiiU and Nintendo will be a wild success are Full Of Shit.

Carry on you crazy freaks.

Only difference is there is one constant in Nintendo business history, and that's the handheld business.

Nintendo has always been successful in that market, despite the Nintendophobia that existed against their more kiddy offerings, even Pokemon.

Now, the Wii tapped into that success, and the WiiU even more so, we see Nintendo molding its home console strategy more and more after its handheld strategy, and then some.

To me, that's the constant that makes me think the WiiU is a sure bet and a success. So, using past data, I'm offering what is in my view a sound prediction.