Mnementh said:
archbrix said:
Alright, here's the deal: My original claim was based on NeXtBox/PS4 not launching until a full year after WiiU. So if we just say in a full year of availability after WiiU's release in all three regions, then you're on. That way, if Microsoft surprise launches in April 2013, I'm not screwed, and if Microsoft/Sony waits until holiday of 2014, you're not screwed. It's the most fair this way. However, keep in mind that I'm saying "a full year after it has released in all three regions". Therefore, if it launches this November in Japan/NA and not until next March in Europe, then it's a full year from March. It's supposed to launch worldwide this year, however, so this is likely a non-issue.
So I'll reiterate:
"Archbrix predicts that if WiiU launches for $299 (or less), it will sell at least 15m WW (according to Vgchartz data) in its first full year of availability in all three major regions (NA/Europe/Japan). Mnementh says not."
I accept the stakes you proposed (3 month statement in the losers sig admitting defeat), so if you agree to this criteria we'll post the bet in our sigs ASAP. Sound good?
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Sound good about the full year, but you're back on $299. I think 320 or 350 is a real option for Nintendo right now. I already proposed a price-span of 250-350 for setting limits on the bet.
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$299 (or less) is a required stipulation for the bet. First, I do believe that they will launch for that price, and second, even though $329 or even $349 is realistically not that much more, $299 is still the maximum sweet spot for a mass-market console price. Many people may choose to wait for price drops if it's higher than that.
In other words, if it retails for higher than $299, I would not be fully confident in my prediction coming true. So take it or leave it.
