Thanks for pointing that out Avi.

What I meant, is that I don't believe that the Wii will last for any more than 5-6 years. Then it needs to double the sales of 2007 (14,5M) to get 150M, I don't think it can keep up the doubled sales for 4 more years.

And, putting that last quote in was just mean. Now you made it look like I posted that, which I didn't.

I hope you understand what I meant now. :)

 Wasn't trying to be mean, but why do you think Wii will only last 5-6 years, NES was a gen behind when it launched, it lasted 20 years in japan (10 in NA), Wii will easily go 9-10 more years.

You assume it can't keep the doubled sales rate, when in fact all trends seem to point that it will continue to go strong and will likely even pick up speed in the coming years 

We all have different ideas about the future, but you're being unrealistic, Avi.

While I think 150 million is very unlikely, it is at least within the boundaries of realistic. But Wii outselling the entire PS console family?

PS3 will sell AT LEAST 30 million life time, and at that moment the entire PS familiy is 103 (PS) + 125 (minimal PS2) + 32 (let's make it 32 to round it up for PS3) = 260 million.

Wii will NEVER make it anywhere near 200 million, let alone 260. And more likely is that the PS familiy total sales will be between 290 and 320 million, making superdupermegauberultra impossible for the Wii to surpass.

Nintendo will no release a new console for a long, long time...
Unlike sony, nintendo will know when to milk a console... Sony should have milked the PS2(look how well it is still selling, if they were putting out AAA games for it still, they would be selling like mad, and profit would be higher since dev cost are down.

 260 million is not impossible for the Wii as selling only 30 million a year for eight years will put them over that mark, PS3 will be lucky to hit 30 million, so its very possible that Wii can achieve the sales needed

Previous generations were mostly limited by the numbers of teens and younger males that had disposable income. The Wii has expanded the market into women and older adults, so it's really anyones guess what the market size is.

I'm thinking 90-100 million.  I think that Wii's appeal will decline over time as more people adopt HD, but it will still easily defeat the other consoles. 

Actually, Avi might be right.

Right now, the Wii is holding an average about as high as the ps2 ever did. Outside of holiday sales that is.
http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii®1=All&cons2=PS2®2=All&cons3=DS®3=All&weeks=400&weekly=1

Even while it was supply constrained, it kept up with PS2s top year.

Nintendo said 1.8 million a month, right? That is 425K a week. If we say they take 25K of each week and save them for holiday sales, they will sell 400k/week, which is an higher average than the Ps2 ever had, and they will have 1300K saved up for the holiday sales, making a holiday sale of 1725K, as high as the Ps2 ever had.

It also appears that Wii is heading the way the DS did. It sold more in its first year than the DS did. And the DS is just increasing and increasing. Next year, the average outside of holiday sales might end up at 460 k ish. If Wii does like DS, its sales might get up to 500k/week in its third year.

Let's say the Wii keeps 250k/week first year (this year)

240k X 52 = 12,4M

Second year:

400 X 52 = 20,8M

Third year, they increase it even more:

500 x 52 = 26M

Fourth year, it does the same the Ps2 did and starts fading:

400 x 52 = 20,8M

Fifth year, X720 launches, no major price drop yet:

300 x 52 = 15,6M

Sixth year, a major price drop, making it very cheap, an alternative to Sony and MS new platforms, that cost 4 times as much. The Wii has now built up a reputation, and even the doubters buy one now. Wii still gets new games

330 x 52 = 16,6M

Sevent year, Nintendo launches a Wii 2, and the Wii 1 is now only a cheap console, which doesn't get as many games anymore, they still get some though.

260 x 52 = 13M

Eight year, it starts declining fast.

120 x 52 = 6,2M

Ninth year, it is almost gone,

50 x 52 = 2,6M

This is without holiday sales, I might overestimate a bit when I look at it overall.

Total sales:

134M without holiday sales.

I think the wii will sell 100-120 mil because it will get price cuts in the future (maybe 2009) and THEN it will sell, catching up all the
casual-withnotmuchmoney-players

Double Post