How much will the Wii franchise sell?

[Oyvoyvoyv]

Actually, Avi might be right.

Right now, the Wii is holding an average about as high as the ps2 ever did. Outside of holiday sales that is.
http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii®1=All&cons2=PS2®2=All&cons3=DS®3=All&weeks=400&weekly=1

Even while it was supply constrained, it kept up with PS2s top year.

Nintendo said 1.8 million a month, right? That is 425K a week. If we say they take 25K of each week and save them for holiday sales, they will sell 400k/week, which is an higher average than the Ps2 ever had, and they will have 1300K saved up for the holiday sales, making a holiday sale of 1725K, as high as the Ps2 ever had.

It also appears that Wii is heading the way the DS did. It sold more in its first year than the DS did. And the DS is just increasing and increasing. Next year, the average outside of holiday sales might end up at 460 k ish. If Wii does like DS, its sales might get up to 500k/week in its third year.

Let's say the Wii keeps 250k/week first year (this year)

240k X 52 = 12,4M

Second year:

400 X 52 = 20,8M

Third year, they increase it even more:

500 x 52 = 26M

Fourth year, it does the same the Ps2 did and starts fading:

400 x 52 = 20,8M

Fifth year, X720 launches, no major price drop yet:

300 x 52 = 15,6M

Sixth year, a major price drop, making it very cheap, an alternative to Sony and MS new platforms, that cost 4 times as much. The Wii has now built up a reputation, and even the doubters buy one now. Wii still gets new games

330 x 52 = 16,6M

Sevent year, Nintendo launches a Wii 2, and the Wii 1 is now only a cheap console, which doesn't get as many games anymore, they still get some though.

260 x 52 = 13M

Eight year, it starts declining fast.

120 x 52 = 6,2M

Ninth year, it is almost gone,

50 x 52 = 2,6M

This is without holiday sales, I might overestimate a bit when I look at it overall.

Total sales:

134M without holiday sales.