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Forums - Microsoft - Microsoft Results FY2012 Qtr3. 1.4m shipped (67.2m)

cookingyourmama said:

- It's an xbox360 exclusive unlike call of duty

Call of Duty bundle was exclusive to Xbox 360 and CoD is bigger than any Star Wars game in existence.

- It's also a kinect game which has the potential to bring in more brand new casual gamers then the 7th call of duty game of this generation, which has already reached market saturation point. If you were a fan of call of duty you'd already own an xbox360, unlike star wars kinect which is something new

Wrong and a typical mistake made by many people. Call of Duty attracts over 100k people to the 360 every year. Go check the charts. Big games ALWAYS bring new people to a platform. Next CoD will prove it once more. No other IP in the recent games had a similar effect on the HD consoles. Or why do you think CoD sells more and more every year if there weren't any new players ?

- Kinect is very important to microsoft, they see it as the way they're going to 'win' this and future generations, they're hyping and marketing star wars kinect more than call of duty and getting as many star wars xbox's out there is part of that.

I think you're exaggerating the hype a bit. CoD is earning MS more money than Star Wars currently and while it is important they KNOW that Kinect is only really doing well during the holidays and not during the slow weeks.

- Hands down it is the best limited edition console that has been released this generation, for the simple fact it looks, sounds and works great it will sell a lot.

As far as Kinect bundles go, yeah. I still prefer the CoDMW3 and the GeoW3 one.

- Star wars is much more than just a game, it has a huge following and this star wars console will be snapped up by many, many star wars collectors even if they're not gamers

While this is true, Star Wars didn't see much attention in any media lately. The huge hype has died down quite a bit.

- This is the first major huge exclusive game of the year that has been released for xbox and it's been all most 6 months since the last big xbox exclusive came out so microsoft are pushing this game and bundle hard

They're pushing it just like every other exclusive with the exception of Halo and Gears of War.

- Every shop or online retailer i go to has stacks of these limited edition star wars 360's on display, i can't say i saw any where near the amount of call of duty limited edition bundles over the holidays

Call of Duty bundles were sold out in its first week of appearance. Star Wars Kinect sold 18k in its first week in the UK and we know that 12% of that came from these bundles. So only 2k in the third biggest market of the world. Considering the first week sales are 420k globally means that many bundles are in stock naturally.

When i gave a list of potential shipment numbers i was making the point that nobody knows how many were shipped, 500,000 was just an extreme example. My personal opinion is it's roughly 200,000-300,000.

I'd say anything over 150k is already extremely exaggerated.





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Huh. Better than expected.

Nice one.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

kowenicki said:

 

Retailers and manufacturers get supply chains and stock predictions much more under control as time passes.  I don't think people understand how costly it is to hold stock.  Retailers do not want lazy stock taking up space.

First of all, manufacturers don't give a sh*t what the market does. Flextron/Taiwan Inc. manufactures exactly the number of items the producer wants. It is up to the producer to figure out how many to manufacture, for each fiscal year in advance. If the producer ordered too many items, tough chances. If the producer ordered too few items, it might be able to get more (for a hugely higher price, obviously).

Secondly, if you think that large distributors buy items on a "Get some more items from the producer, we are running out of them", you are seriously wrong. Large retailers, like MediaMarkt/Saturn/etc have their plans laid out on commodity items months in advance (depending on what the producer announces for the commodity item for its fiscal year). It's not like MS said in January "Hey MediaMarkt, next month we have a cool Kinect bundle. How many?". This Kinect stuff was ordered many months in advance, at a point when noone realised they would still be sitting on unsold XMas inventory.

"Retailers do not want lazy stock taking up space" - of course not, noone wants. But it just happens so, all the time, everywhere.



Something wrong with Ethomaz's logic, those numbers were from the beginning of each year, right after holiday stock ups, it is now april, almost may. THERE ARE NOT 1.0 - 1.4 CONSOLES ON SHELVES. STORES WOULD NOT ORDER 1.4 MORE CONSOLES FOR Q1 WHEN THEY STILL HAD .5M CONSOLES IN STORAGE.



cookingyourmama said:
DirtyP2002 said:
bertlsenix said:

So shipping is now selling?
So if Sony is suddenly shipping 1389672342 Million Units to africa they are Number 1?

Its kinda funny...M$ only has to ship stuff while the other 2 have to actually SELL their stuff ;)


Welcome to VGC.

Shipped = sold for the manufacturer. Yeah, Sony would be no. 1 if they manage to sell these numbers to Africa. The point is, you have to find someone buying these consoles.

console:
1st: Manufacturer --> retailer
2nd: retailer --> consumer

money:
1st: retailer --> manufacturer
2nd: consumer --> retailer

So you have to find the retailers buying you consoles, because they think they will sell them. That is the rough part.

So MS SOLD their stuff to retailers. 67.2 million consoles shipped and sold to retail. VGC said that 65.3 million consoles were sold from retailers to consumers. That means according to VGC there are 1.9 million consoles sitting at differnt retailers around the world. This is way too much. 1 million seems reasonable, because this is the average level of stock for the past 2 years at this time of the year. Actually it is just under 1 million.

I hope I was able to clear things up.

The problem with your point is that Microsoft have just released a new star wars sku, and do you actually have any idea what so ever how many extra hundreds of thousands of those Microsoft shipped into the retail channel before the end of the quarter??? Was it 200,000? 300,000? 400,000? even 500,000?

Whatever the answer is none of those could have been sold because the game didn't release till the first few days of the next financial quarter so Microsoft's numbers for Jan-Mar have been inflated again and don't truely reflect what was actually sold this past quarter.

Then on top of that it's not just Vgchartz numbers vs the world, Vgchartz total numbers are in line with NPD, Media Create, Famitsu, Chart Track, GFK and Nintendo's own internal trackers that track all consoles in all major markets. The only way Microsoft's sold to consumer numbers can be wrong is if most or all of the above trackers are completely wrong which is highly unlikely. Not to mention that we also have lots of data that shows which regions around the world the xbox360 is the most popular in, and it would have to mean that in the last 6 months from out of no where the 360 has become insanely popular in multiple regions where it was previously in dead last...... it's just not likely. At best the 360 is a couple of hundred thousand units undertracked and that is all.


I am amazed how creative you guys can be. I really am. Now it is the Star Wars console SKU. So next quarter we probably see dramatically low shipments. What is you prediction for the next Q? They overshipped in 2011 and had quite big shipments in Q1 for a Q2 console according to your logic. This means Q2 must be a hell of a Q then.



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drkohler said:
kowenicki said:

 

Retailers and manufacturers get supply chains and stock predictions much more under control as time passes.  I don't think people understand how costly it is to hold stock.  Retailers do not want lazy stock taking up space.

First of all, manufacturers don't give a sh*t what the market does. Flextron/Taiwan Inc. manufactures exactly the number of items the producer wants. It is up to the producer to figure out how many to manufacture, for each fiscal year in advance. If the producer ordered too many items, tough chances. If the producer ordered too few items, it might be able to get more (for a hugely higher price, obviously).

Secondly, if you think that large distributors buy items on a "Get some more items from the producer, we are running out of them", you are seriously wrong. Large retailers, like MediaMarkt/Saturn/etc have their plans laid out on commodity items months in advance (depending on what the producer announces for the commodity item for its fiscal year). It's not like MS said in January "Hey MediaMarkt, next month we have a cool Kinect bundle. How many?". This Kinect stuff was ordered many months in advance, at a point when noone realised they would still be sitting on unsold XMas inventory.

"Retailers do not want lazy stock taking up space" - of course not, noone wants. But it just happens so, all the time, everywhere.


Just repeating Kowens point

1) Big corporations have dedicated inventory control department/teams. It is very unlikey they would allow such costs to incur, especially during times when margins are stretched.

2) Retailers and manufacturers get supply chains and stock predictions much more under control as time passes (analysing past trends)



drkohler said:
kowenicki said:

 

Retailers and manufacturers get supply chains and stock predictions much more under control as time passes.  I don't think people understand how costly it is to hold stock.  Retailers do not want lazy stock taking up space.

First of all, manufacturers don't give a sh*t what the market does. Flextron/Taiwan Inc. manufactures exactly the number of items the producer wants. It is up to the producer to figure out how many to manufacture, for each fiscal year in advance. If the producer ordered too many items, tough chances. If the producer ordered too few items, it might be able to get more (for a hugely higher price, obviously).

Secondly, if you think that large distributors buy items on a "Get some more items from the producer, we are running out of them", you are seriously wrong. Large retailers, like MediaMarkt/Saturn/etc have their plans laid out on commodity items months in advance (depending on what the producer announces for the commodity item for its fiscal year). It's not like MS said in January "Hey MediaMarkt, next month we have a cool Kinect bundle. How many?". This Kinect stuff was ordered many months in advance, at a point when noone realised they would still be sitting on unsold XMas inventory.

"Retailers do not want lazy stock taking up space" - of course not, noone wants. But it just happens so, all the time, everywhere.


You're talking about 2 extremes. Both are bullshit. It's somewhere in the middle. You talk about the manufacturing technology industry in the same way as people moan about how long government legislation takes to implement. Production can be ramped updown on all components in an Xbox 360 within a month or two tops. Same with computer components.

The only way you could be on to something is if you were talking about yield issues at a fabrication factory. You aren't though, and if you were you would be wrong because the components in an Xbox 360 don't have yield issues because the tech is ancient and the manufacturing processes used are a gen or two behind in terms of die shrinks.



Barozi said:
cookingyourmama said:

- It's an xbox360 exclusive unlike call of duty

Call of Duty bundle was exclusive to Xbox 360 and CoD is bigger than any Star Wars game in existence.

- It's also a kinect game which has the potential to bring in more brand new casual gamers then the 7th call of duty game of this generation, which has already reached market saturation point. If you were a fan of call of duty you'd already own an xbox360, unlike star wars kinect which is something new

Wrong and a typical mistake made by many people. Call of Duty attracts over 100k people to the 360 every year. Go check the charts. Big games ALWAYS bring new people to a platform. Next CoD will prove it once more. No other IP in the recent games had a similar effect on the HD consoles. Or why do you think CoD sells more and more every year if there weren't any new players ?

- Kinect is very important to microsoft, they see it as the way they're going to 'win' this and future generations, they're hyping and marketing star wars kinect more than call of duty and getting as many star wars xbox's out there is part of that.

I think you're exaggerating the hype a bit. CoD is earning MS more money than Star Wars currently and while it is important they KNOW that Kinect is only really doing well during the holidays and not during the slow weeks.

- Hands down it is the best limited edition console that has been released this generation, for the simple fact it looks, sounds and works great it will sell a lot.

As far as Kinect bundles go, yeah. I still prefer the CoDMW3 and the GeoW3 one.

- Star wars is much more than just a game, it has a huge following and this star wars console will be snapped up by many, many star wars collectors even if they're not gamers

While this is true, Star Wars didn't see much attention in any media lately. The huge hype has died down quite a bit.

- This is the first major huge exclusive game of the year that has been released for xbox and it's been all most 6 months since the last big xbox exclusive came out so microsoft are pushing this game and bundle hard

They're pushing it just like every other exclusive with the exception of Halo and Gears of War.

- Every shop or online retailer i go to has stacks of these limited edition star wars 360's on display, i can't say i saw any where near the amount of call of duty limited edition bundles over the holidays

Call of Duty bundles were sold out in its first week of appearance. Star Wars Kinect sold 18k in its first week in the UK and we know that 12% of that came from these bundles. So only 2k in the third biggest market of the world. Considering the first week sales are 420k globally means that many bundles are in stock naturally.

When i gave a list of potential shipment numbers i was making the point that nobody knows how many were shipped, 500,000 was just an extreme example. My personal opinion is it's roughly 200,000-300,000.

I'd say anything over 150k is already extremely exaggerated.



The week Star Wars Kinect launched, 179k Kinect sensors were sold according to VGC. This includes stand alone sensors and every other Kinect bundle. So if the Star Wars Kinect bundle was the somewhere in the 500k direction, it must be available in the next 4 months or so.

Another point that makes perfectly sense that we are not looking in the 500k region: It is quite expensive. This is a 400 € console. Do you honestly think you can sell 500k 7 year old consoles for 400€ / $450?

I just noticed Amazon says "Only 3 left in stock, order soon!" So this is one of the biggest retailers running out of limited edition consoles. They better order new ones... and MS ships them. In Q2.



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

kowenicki said:
pezus said:
kowenicki said:
ethomaz said:
kowenicki said:

because he's wrong.

Am I wrong? Give me a break... simple math here... just get the shipped number for the 31th March and compare with the VGC sales for the same period.

2011: 53.6m shipped / 52.8m sold = 800k on shelves (supply constrained confirmed by MS)
2010: 40.2m shipped / 39.1m sold = 1.1m on shelves
2009: 30.2m shipped / 28.9m sold = 1.3m on shelves
2008: 19.0m shipped / 17.6m sold = 1.4m on shelves
2007: 10.9m shipped / 9.4m sold = 1.5m on shelves

Face it!

Spot a trend?  I do.

And the average seemed to be..... 1.2 m, a fast falling average at that. Average for the last 3 years is 1.1m

It's just that though...an average. So, it's just as likely that there are 1.4m on shelves as there are 1.0m


And from the average alone just as likely 1.0 m as 1.4m...... Ethomaz won't have that.  The average thing has to have the trend over-layed though, and that is a pretty clear trend.  So it is very fair to say 1.0m is more likely than 1.4m.

Retailers and manufacturers get supply chains and stock predictions much more under control as time passes.  I don't think people understand how costly it is to hold stock.  Retailers do not want lazy stock taking up space.

First remove the 800k (2011) from the average for obvious reasons... after that make your maths.



Edit - double post.