Microsoft Results FY2012 Qtr3. 1.4m shipped (67.2m)

[ethomaz]

kowenicki said:

pezus said:

kowenicki said:

ethomaz said:

kowenicki said:

because he's wrong.

Am I wrong? Give me a break... simple math here... just get the shipped number for the 31th March and compare with the VGC sales for the same period.

2011: 53.6m shipped / 52.8m sold = 800k on shelves (supply constrained confirmed by MS)
2010: 40.2m shipped / 39.1m sold = 1.1m on shelves
2009: 30.2m shipped / 28.9m sold = 1.3m on shelves
2008: 19.0m shipped / 17.6m sold = 1.4m on shelves
2007: 10.9m shipped / 9.4m sold = 1.5m on shelves

Face it!

Spot a trend?  I do.

And the average seemed to be..... 1.2 m, a fast falling average at that. Average for the last 3 years is 1.1m

It's just that though...an average. So, it's just as likely that there are 1.4m on shelves as there are 1.0m

And from the average alone just as likely 1.0 m as 1.4m...... Ethomaz won't have that.  The average thing has to have the trend over-layed though, and that is a pretty clear trend.  So it is very fair to say 1.0m is more likely than 1.4m.

Retailers and manufacturers get supply chains and stock predictions much more under control as time passes.  I don't think people understand how costly it is to hold stock.  Retailers do not want lazy stock taking up space.

First remove the 800k (2011) from the average for obvious reasons... after that make your maths.