That's because it's true. With mobile devices coming through, I don't see me still playing the PSVita in 2020.

Hold your horses. You can't extrapolate LT sales based on a console's first 6 months of worldwide availability. We're just trying to work out FY sales here, which could easily swing up to 6 or 7 mil if something unexpected happens.

The only unexpected this about the Vita sales would be if it sells less. I don't see how it could 'swing' to above 5mil, really.

Yes, extrapolating sales is stupid, but no way can it last until the next decade. That's just crazy. By then, everyone will be gaming on smartphones, and TBH, they'll be luclky to last 5 years.

I could be wrong, of course. But I might not be!

Sony expects 10 million for this fiscal year - not first year.

So, first calendar year being 5 million or so does not make their prediction wrong. But expecting 10 million without launch numbers now is almost delusional.

You should make this graphs for fiscal year, so we can compare it to Sony's forecast.

BTW... nice thread!

Well actually this website is all about making predictions, so he can estimate an 8 year lifecycle with a 5 mil first year if he wants

Not sure on you mentioning "easily" but I could see the Vita passing 6 million by the end of the year if things went right. 7 million is a hell of a stretch though, I think Sony would have to drop the price to match the 3DS to go over 7 million.

Ha, yeah no way are they going to push out 10 million Vitas for FY ending 2013, even with a September price cut to match the 3DS. (I mean being ridiculously optimistic, with the price cut they end 2012 at 7.5 million, they then have 3 non-holiday months to sell 2.5 million just to get to a 10 million total before April 2013, then they are still behind by whatever they shipped in the previous fiscal year which I can't find the figure on at the moment (doesn't seem to be in their latest fiscal report) but it must be more than 1.6 million which is what the VGC sales figure had passed for w/e 31st March 2012.

EDIT: just looked into it, I found afew bits of info about the Vita selling 10 million by the end of March 2013, but I think they were just from a Sony employee interview and suspect he meant the total sales (shipments) will be 10 million by then (ie including all since launch). What they forecast in the fiscal report was 16 million for combined PSP and PSV shipments during the fiscal year.

The fiscal report is definately going to be too high (last year PSP shipped 6.8 million max, I am unsure if that included Vita shipments but if so it would only make the situation worse as the Vita doesn't have much chamce of making up 9.2 million shipments in the current FY.

Interesting, I will add a graph that goes to FY 2013 tonight or atleast list the numbers. Both the lifetime at end of FY and amount sold in the FY. Is that beginning of March or end of March?

maybe 4m!!!!

Wii U + 3DS XL and massive game of 3DS , vita will be finally PS3 Controller

The Fiscal Years for Sony & Nintendo end March 31st (though Sony names them by the year they start in, and Nintendo uses the more common practice of naming them by the year they end in) Microsoft's FYs end June 30th. (So currently Sony is in Q2 of FY2012, Nintendo is Q2 FY2013, and MS is Q1 FY2013)

As for Sony's predictions:

Guy from Sony: 10 million Vitas total shipped by March 31st 2013
FY report released in early May 2012: 16 million PSP+PSV shipped between April 1st 2012 and March 31st 2013

I am unsure if Sony updated their forcast after Q1 ended, I presume their quarterly report is out by now... wait, nope their website says it's not until August 2nd. I thought they would be a bit quicker with the quarterlies compared to the yearlies, but maybe not.
So in a few days time if Sony hasn't dropped their forecast by at least 4 million I think we can safely say either they have something huge up their sleeves or they are batshit insane. (Even 12 million combined PSP + Vita would be a stretch at this pace)

Yes, the way things are selling now spell out a lack luster holiday. Since Vita is new and the primary advertisment push for Sony, I expect better sales than what my chart shows right now. Strengthening sales before the holidays will have a dramatic effect, but for right now the 4.8 million is a worst case scenario because sales are so weak right now. Changing it up to 10 million is something the gaming industry will be excited to see, it would have to be something big.