Renar- yes its always very hard to predict the further and further you get. But I do take that into account. As I assume by 2010, both Nintendo and MS will enter their 8th generation consoles. The 360 of course will be dead from it, but Wii should have a PS2 like slowing.

PS3 is harder to predict as ya just don't know when Sony will enter the PS4. It's a really tough call. But 2011 at the latest for PS4 is where to draw the line. But as I said I do think all my numbers are probably a little too high, especially for Wii, but in general they are around the same area.

i think microsoft will support the 360 more then they did the xbox and i wouldnt expect the next gen to start until 2011,and i agree with you wii will have a ps2 like slowing

I'm predicting Sony will overlap next generation with the ps3. they're gonna release like a ps3.5 when next generation starts, but the ps4 will come in 2014 or 2015, starting the 9th generation.

That would be silly.  Why would they do that?  They just don't have the power in the market to really do that.  I mean PS2 and PS1 could have done a scenario like that, but not PS3.  PS3 would need domination, which with current trends is an impossibility.  Sony is going to have to follow the competition, and if that means abandoning the PS3, they are going to have to do that.  They can't afford anymore to fall behind at the start of a generation, if not with a supeiror brand appeal.  

Meaning if both N6 and Xbox 3 are out in 2011, then at the latest PS4 will be out in 2012.  

Well the 360 is in the same situation as the Xbox.  It did fine in the beginning in everywhere but America, but now that is dying, and by end of 2009, could be dead.  Thus they are left with only America, and only difference this time is software is doing a hell of a lot better.  It leaves them at a dilenma, but ultimatley it'll be decided upon if PS3 passes hardware sales of the 360 in America, as this is the last frontier for 360 by 2009.  If PS3 passes it, then the Xbox 3 will be released in 2010.  If it doesn't, then MS might hold off a year and release the Xbox 3 in 2011.  

With Wii though, I see Nintendo cutting the sales of it shorter than it probably could have gone simply because time is not on the Wii's side, as it will be dated technology by 2009.  Meaning in 2010, whether Wii sales are good or bad, Nintendo could be releasing the N6.  The latest 2011.  This is why in 2009 and further I showed a sort of slow down for the Wii.  In 2009 its not by much.  But it picks up in 2010, and then it starts its PS2 like slowing, as it still is the dominant brand.  Not to mention DS will still be kicking.  

But the hardest to predict on when the next console will release is with the DS and PS3.  As PS4 or the next nintendo handheld really could come in any time between 2010- 2012.  So its hard to decide.  I figure, DS will sooner or later hit a point of diminishing returns in all markets by 2010, thus I tried to show that's when sales will start to fall a little faster and then a slower death.  PS3 on the otherhand should increase and then stay the same for about 2008-2010, and then start slowing down, but at a faster rate, due to not being the dominant brand.  This is when Sony should start thinking about releasing the PS4, which leaves the dates of 2011 and 2012 in mind.  

Why would they, and what could they possibly gain from doing that?

When a new generation begins it produces a certain ammount of excitement which "snuffs out" the hype for all but the most popular previous generation systems; look at how sales of the XBox and Gamecube responded to the release of the XBox 360.

When the next generation begins it is highly likely that there will be 2 new (and "exciting") consoles, 2 new (and "exciting") handheld devices, and dozens of other new electronics devices so how will Sony be able to draw attention to the PS3?

When third party publishers are allocating resources across the PC, 2 new consoles, the previous dominant console (the Wii), 2 new handhelds, and the previous dominant handheld (the DS) how many resources will they have left for the PS3?

Long lives are determined by sales, because sales is the only thing that keeps third party publishers and consumers interested in your product after the next generation begins.

i never said ALL wii owners haven't bought a console; i said there are many wii buyers who haven't ever bought a console.  i know this from knowing several people and talking to several others who bought one that never owned one before...and then there are retirement homes, rehab centers, stroke centers, gyms and other businessses buying a wii that didn't buy consoles in the past

the vast majority of people in the world are 'non-gamers'

 the wii is selling to those people, people that ps2 never touched

 'gamers' and 'casual gamers' may be 20% of the population, but if wii can get a small % of the 80% of the population that are 'non-gamers' then it will blow away any numbers you've ever imagined for a console

 also, the casuals will go to the wii this gen, as ps3 is built for, and marketed to, the hardcore

 casuals aren't brand loyal; they see sony's commercials with a crying baby and then they see Nintendo's commercials with the family playing together...they will buy a wii; that's another reason ps3 won't reach half of ps2 sales: they aren't gonna get those casuals this time around

 I agree with HappySquirrel, that the second and third place in this generation sales, will go down when the next generation machine comes on line.  Of all of them, I think N. is most predictable.  They will go for 2011.  Their previous ones of 1990, 1996, 2001 and 2006 are very evenly spaced at 5 years.  And I think that the experience of starting out after a next good next generation box has been drilled into their brains.  MS as well, if not in 2010, based on the same belief, but that X360 failed in Europe because it was not reliable.  The next one will be as solid as MS can make it.  

PS3 is more of a question mark to me.  If they come out with a '3.5', how does that distinguish it from the 20/40/60/80?  It could have a number of differences, but unless it's named a new model with new features, it's going be seen as a PS3.  Yet to come out with a PS4 without PS3 having a number of years with profitability to match up with its years of losses, means it was a business loser.  Of course, some times you have to bite the bullet and just move on.

This line of thinking puts me in Zucas' camp.  Tho, I think his LTD Wii numbers are okay, maybe even low, if the right games come in.  And PS3 could be too high, if the 3rd parties desert it like they do all of the other 2nd and 3rd runners in that generation.

Alright I'll give this a go.

2008.

Wii ~25M
PS3 ~9M
360 ~8M

The Wii sales will continue strongly on the back of built up demand and hitting peak time on the market, several key games are also released at some point next year possibly increasing demand further. Limited only by production for most of the year.

PS3 gets some boost from its two major releases next year, MGS4 and GT5. Some minor price drop seems likely also.

360 Sales driven strongly by GTAIV (exclusive content likely to be heavily advertised thus pushing the advantage to 360) and major price drops.

2009.

Wii ~23M
PS3 ~10M
360 ~7M

Wii demand remains strong through a strong wave of 3rd part development started late 2007/early 2008 as it became more clear the Wii would maintain a strong userbase. First Wii price drop also fuels sales.

PS3 sales increase as the price falls further however the mass market will not accept it in a similar fashion as they did not accept the GC despite its low price. PS3's strongest year.

360 sales remain strong in the Americas but decline in Europe.

2010.

Wii ~21M
PS3 ~8M
360 ~6M

Wii sales start to decline as the next generation approaches, software sales and development remain strong.

PS3 decline also especially in America, Europe becomes extremely central to the PS3.

360 declines sharply in Europe remaining moderately strong in the larger regions however.

2011

Wii ~16M
PS3 ~7M
360 ~4M

Market now declining sharply as the next generation begins.

2012

Wii~13M
PS3~4M
360~2M

2013

Wii ~10M
PS3 ~2M

360 dropped by MS two years after their next console is released.

2014

Wii ~6M
PS3 ~1M

2015

Wii ~3M
PS3 ~0.5M

2016

PS3 ~ 0.5M

Life:

Wii ~137M (60% of the market)

PS3 ~50M (21% of the market)

360 ~43M (19% of the market)

Woah, I hadn't released I was actually predicting PS3>360 lifetime. Anyway, those are the ramblings of an uneducated fanboy not at all based in historical data and largely plagarised from The Source.