We've Seen 2005-2007 Sales Now. What do you expect for LTD Sales?

[Renar]

HappySqurriel said:

___O_o______ said:
I'm predicting Sony will overlap next generation with the ps3. they're gonna release like a ps3.5 when next generation starts, but the ps4 will come in 2014 or 2015, starting the 9th generation.

Why would they, and what could they possibly gain from doing that?

When a new generation begins it produces a certain ammount of excitement which "snuffs out" the hype for all but the most popular previous generation systems; look at how sales of the XBox and Gamecube responded to the release of the XBox 360.

When the next generation begins it is highly likely that there will be 2 new (and "exciting") consoles, 2 new (and "exciting") handheld devices, and dozens of other new electronics devices so how will Sony be able to draw attention to the PS3?

When third party publishers are allocating resources across the PC, 2 new consoles, the previous dominant console (the Wii), 2 new handhelds, and the previous dominant handheld (the DS) how many resources will they have left for the PS3?

Long lives are determined by sales, because sales is the only thing that keeps third party publishers and consumers interested in your product after the next generation begins.

 I agree with HappySquirrel, that the second and third place in this generation sales, will go down when the next generation machine comes on line.  Of all of them, I think N. is most predictable.  They will go for 2011.  Their previous ones of 1990, 1996, 2001 and 2006 are very evenly spaced at 5 years.  And I think that the experience of starting out after a next good next generation box has been drilled into their brains.  MS as well, if not in 2010, based on the same belief, but that X360 failed in Europe because it was not reliable.  The next one will be as solid as MS can make it.  

PS3 is more of a question mark to me.  If they come out with a '3.5', how does that distinguish it from the 20/40/60/80?  It could have a number of differences, but unless it's named a new model with new features, it's going be seen as a PS3.  Yet to come out with a PS4 without PS3 having a number of years with profitability to match up with its years of losses, means it was a business loser.  Of course, some times you have to bite the bullet and just move on.

This line of thinking puts me in Zucas' camp.  Tho, I think his LTD Wii numbers are okay, maybe even low, if the right games come in.  And PS3 could be too high, if the 3rd parties desert it like they do all of the other 2nd and 3rd runners in that generation.