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Zucas on 12 January 2008
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brute said:
Zucas said:
Renar- yes its always very hard to predict the further and further you get. But I do take that into account. As I assume by 2010, both Nintendo and MS will enter their 8th generation consoles. The 360 of course will be dead from it, but Wii should have a PS2 like slowing.

PS3 is harder to predict as ya just don't know when Sony will enter the PS4. It's a really tough call. But 2011 at the latest for PS4 is where to draw the line. But as I said I do think all my numbers are probably a little too high, especially for Wii, but in general they are around the same area.

i think microsoft will support the 360 more then they did the xbox and i wouldnt expect the next gen to start until 2011,and i agree with you wii will have a ps2 like slowing


Well the 360 is in the same situation as the Xbox.  It did fine in the beginning in everywhere but America, but now that is dying, and by end of 2009, could be dead.  Thus they are left with only America, and only difference this time is software is doing a hell of a lot better.  It leaves them at a dilenma, but ultimatley it'll be decided upon if PS3 passes hardware sales of the 360 in America, as this is the last frontier for 360 by 2009.  If PS3 passes it, then the Xbox 3 will be released in 2010.  If it doesn't, then MS might hold off a year and release the Xbox 3 in 2011.  

With Wii though, I see Nintendo cutting the sales of it shorter than it probably could have gone simply because time is not on the Wii's side, as it will be dated technology by 2009.  Meaning in 2010, whether Wii sales are good or bad, Nintendo could be releasing the N6.  The latest 2011.  This is why in 2009 and further I showed a sort of slow down for the Wii.  In 2009 its not by much.  But it picks up in 2010, and then it starts its PS2 like slowing, as it still is the dominant brand.  Not to mention DS will still be kicking.  

But the hardest to predict on when the next console will release is with the DS and PS3.  As PS4 or the next nintendo handheld really could come in any time between 2010- 2012.  So its hard to decide.  I figure, DS will sooner or later hit a point of diminishing returns in all markets by 2010, thus I tried to show that's when sales will start to fall a little faster and then a slower death.  PS3 on the otherhand should increase and then stay the same for about 2008-2010, and then start slowing down, but at a faster rate, due to not being the dominant brand.  This is when Sony should start thinking about releasing the PS4, which leaves the dates of 2011 and 2012 in mind.