It's always a good read when TheSource puts these things out.

 Only companies I could see trying is Apple or Intel, and Intel isn't a softwares company, and Apple, has never had very strong gaming capabilities, so its possible but I don't see it happening any time soon

Naz is right about the impact of CC: FFVII on PSP in Japan. However, the really scary PSP title is Monster Hunter Portable 2G, which will be released in March. Also, there are several big titles to be released next year in Japan: Gundam ギレンの野望, Dissidia Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep. It is likely that all of them will bundle with a special edition PSP (like CC: FFVII, Star Ocean 1, and Gundam ギレンの野望) to drive up the sales.

Besides, a lot of Japanese buy PSP to do other things than gaming anyway: watching TV, golfing, tour guide.....

Sony will continuously release new color PSP (in Japan) to attract new buyers, and there is still room to lower the price of PSP (my prediction is $149.99/€149.99/¥16,800). I agree with the Source's prediction for 2008. 

 The only companies I can think of in around the same type of market (ie. computers) with the audacity to try that and the pockets deep enough are Google and Apple.

Google hasn't shown any signs of wanting to move away from the software side of things and Apple has never really shown any signs of interest in the videgame market. In any case I doubt Apple would want to move into the already over crowded market.

Note: Removed the charts for ease of addressing your comments.

Playstation 3

I actually agree with much of your analysis of the PS3, the likely price cut this year as well as a strengthening library will definitely make a difference and I have absolutely no doubt it will do better in '08 than it did in '07...anything less would be catastrophic for the future of the console imho. I could say that I disagree with the numbers, but I don't see much point in that, 12 month numeric predictions are far too varied to bother with arguing over. But for the record I had it in the 8.5m to 9.5m range.

Xbox 360

On the 360 I have to say I am somewhat surprised that my predictions are more optimistic than yours. One of the big reasons I think the 360 will have a good year is of course GTA IV, with the 360's best market being the US and the same being true of GTA its a great marriage. Especially when you throw in episodic content and the like. I have no doubt GTA IV will be bigger on the 360 than the PS3, but that by itself isn't earthshattering..but it is still very meaningful.

The biggest reason I think the 360 will have one more year of increased sales before falling victim to the normal trend for all consoles actually has a lot to do with the Wii and the price of the PS3. First of all I think there will definitely be people who purchase a Wii and choose to get another console, they've been hearing a lot about games like Halo 3 and Rock Band and those things sound interesting to them...do I think they will come in droves like the Wii recieves or anything close to that? Not at all, but there will be enough for them to be felt in a tangible way at the end of the year. Now the price of the PS3 fits in because people are asking right as they read this.."What about the PS3???? omg hate!" ..no my friends its simple economics. These folks are still relatively new to gaming and it makes a lot of sense that most of them will go with the cheaper option when things are going to look so similar to them. I think this disproportioned migration will balance out in 2009 but for 2008 I think most of these folks will end up with a 360. Again for the record I have the 360 at 8.5m to 9m.

Summary so far:

Your long term numbers are pretty far from mine on all three counts, but I think that is a function of just how much can happen in 5-7 years and how hard it is to account for everything. Truly I think the longterm prediction game is a very difficult game to play and ultimately I see the market changing far to much for me to be willing to take a serious stab this early on. Especially when I don't feel that predictions for the Wii that are predicated apon the normal console model make any sense. Which leads me to the Wii.....

Nintendo Wii:

I think much of the Wii's success is missinterpreted by many. I just don't see anything about the Wii that says it fits any of the normal sales models. Thats why I particularly disagree with your long term Wii numbers. But again, it is too early for that debate imho.

In the short term the Wii does have a fairly bright 2008. Some of its biggest titles are due out this year and with it still sold out you truly have to wonder if this shortage continunes for another year....insanity right? I thought so back in January of last year and yet here we are. Anyone who discounts the Wii and its future is only fooling themselves at this point. A lot of people do however seem to have come to grips with the reality that the Wii can be fantastically successful and it still doesn't mean the end of the PS3 or 360..which is a good thing both for the people realizing it and the console market in general.

Now we do seem to agree that the Wii is going to have a very good 2008, your numbers (and this might shock you) are actually a bit higher in 2008 than mine but I think we have similar thoughts on production #'s..I am just expecting a fair bit more stockpiling for the release in asia than you are perhaps. In any case we have a lot of similar ideas about 2008 it seems but oddly enough our long term conclusions are very different...that in and of itself lends credence to my points about such predictions imo. 

And finally, just to put them out there, my numbers for the Wii were 21m to 22m. 

PS - Great thread~

Yeah i don't buy that the PS3 will be able to narrow the gap after 2009 with the Wii because of its tech, tech never wins console wars if it was we'd still be gaming on PC's and NES would have been a footnote. Only thing that will narrow the gap is if Nintendo's suppliers all meet with unfortunate accidents and the Wii parts start drying up.  In fact the Wii entering a long slow decline in 2009 is flawed because of mass market pricing, since Wii can just drop to $199 and ignite sales beyond what they already are as history has shown largest sales occur after a drop below $200, plus Nintendo has clors held in reserve to push the sales back up, I don't see it dropping down in 2009.

 And that doesn't even take into account the likely unfulfilled demand from 2008, increased developer support and further iterations in the Wii franchise 

Yet PS3 has proven the most powerful system doesn't win right? ( I seriously doubt the next Big N console will be much more powerful then ps3.) I too believe PS3 will eventually gain steam after it price reach around $250. I also doubt Flash memory will be cheat enough (like the Blu -Ray with PS3) to be in the next console generation. PS3 as a console is too far ahead of it time for it's own good.

 It'll gain steam but it still occupies a very different niche than Wii, even its Blu-ray capabilities won't help it since by then other Blu-ray players will probably have dropped below its price

Thw Wii will sell over 100 million in my opinion! It's said that Microsoft will take off the 360 from the market in 2011. (on wikipedia) My PS3 sales predictions were actually at 80 million for the end of gen. my wii sales are at 125 million!

Here's my explanation:
Nintendo has yet to use some of their tricks. They could use, new colors, more wiifit and wiisports type games, make new wii accessories like the head tracker that Johnny Lee came up with, they can team up with 3rd party devs to help create successful titles!


The Ps3 may be a bit higher than your prediction because blu-ray is mainstram now!


360 will likely be taken off the market!


Ds will become the best selling gaming system of any handheld or console in history!


Psp will likely not beat Wii and may stop around 70 million.


All in all my predictions for the consoles are in my sig. But for Ds my prediction is 145.5 million!!!!!!!

PS3 is more than Blu-ray. It also in HD and has the hardware to run games well in HD. The problem is HD hasn't fully caught on yet. My wife couldn't tell at first if something was in HD or not until after watching a movie in HD. Now she can easily pick out when something is in HD. HD help games even more than movies.