| TheSource said: I've been revising some of my models in the wake of final 2007 sales, and I now have arrived at a few different conclusions for my worldwide sales expectations. As a frame of reference look at this track of worldwide market share every three months since 12/31/06: Since the end of 2006, Nintendo and Sony have both effectively doubled their market shares. Microsoft lost 30% market share worldwide, and it was clearly a transition year. Sales for 2007 were - After going through the regions, my rough estimates for 2008, at this early juncture are -
In 2008, DS will still be the top selling system worldwide - but I have it much closer than this year. PS3 will also outsell PS2 in all regions next year. My theory is PS3 will be $300/$400 by the end of next year - preventing it from peaking despite a lot of good games and Blu Ray gains because of pricing. In 2009, Wii will begin a long, slow decline, right as PS3 peaks. For the years after, I have the gap Wii outsell PS3 narrowing each year - as the price difference drops, and PS3's future proofing allow it decline more slowly - but I have Wii maintaining a unit sales lead each year, simply because of its higher peak, publisher economics, and momentum despite the narrowing gap.. Lifetime sales, using 2007 sales, and using my projections would yield sell through figures like this (see next post) |
Note: Removed the charts for ease of addressing your comments.
Playstation 3
I actually agree with much of your analysis of the PS3, the likely price cut this year as well as a strengthening library will definitely make a difference and I have absolutely no doubt it will do better in '08 than it did in '07...anything less would be catastrophic for the future of the console imho. I could say that I disagree with the numbers, but I don't see much point in that, 12 month numeric predictions are far too varied to bother with arguing over. But for the record I had it in the 8.5m to 9.5m range.
Xbox 360
On the 360 I have to say I am somewhat surprised that my predictions are more optimistic than yours. One of the big reasons I think the 360 will have a good year is of course GTA IV, with the 360's best market being the US and the same being true of GTA its a great marriage. Especially when you throw in episodic content and the like. I have no doubt GTA IV will be bigger on the 360 than the PS3, but that by itself isn't earthshattering..but it is still very meaningful.
The biggest reason I think the 360 will have one more year of increased sales before falling victim to the normal trend for all consoles actually has a lot to do with the Wii and the price of the PS3. First of all I think there will definitely be people who purchase a Wii and choose to get another console, they've been hearing a lot about games like Halo 3 and Rock Band and those things sound interesting to them...do I think they will come in droves like the Wii recieves or anything close to that? Not at all, but there will be enough for them to be felt in a tangible way at the end of the year. Now the price of the PS3 fits in because people are asking right as they read this.."What about the PS3???? omg hate!" ..no my friends its simple economics. These folks are still relatively new to gaming and it makes a lot of sense that most of them will go with the cheaper option when things are going to look so similar to them. I think this disproportioned migration will balance out in 2009 but for 2008 I think most of these folks will end up with a 360. Again for the record I have the 360 at 8.5m to 9m.
Summary so far:
Your long term numbers are pretty far from mine on all three counts, but I think that is a function of just how much can happen in 5-7 years and how hard it is to account for everything. Truly I think the longterm prediction game is a very difficult game to play and ultimately I see the market changing far to much for me to be willing to take a serious stab this early on. Especially when I don't feel that predictions for the Wii that are predicated apon the normal console model make any sense. Which leads me to the Wii.....
Nintendo Wii:
I think much of the Wii's success is missinterpreted by many. I just don't see anything about the Wii that says it fits any of the normal sales models. Thats why I particularly disagree with your long term Wii numbers. But again, it is too early for that debate imho.
In the short term the Wii does have a fairly bright 2008. Some of its biggest titles are due out this year and with it still sold out you truly have to wonder if this shortage continunes for another year....insanity right? I thought so back in January of last year and yet here we are. Anyone who discounts the Wii and its future is only fooling themselves at this point. A lot of people do however seem to have come to grips with the reality that the Wii can be fantastically successful and it still doesn't mean the end of the PS3 or 360..which is a good thing both for the people realizing it and the console market in general.
Now we do seem to agree that the Wii is going to have a very good 2008, your numbers (and this might shock you) are actually a bit higher in 2008 than mine but I think we have similar thoughts on production #'s..I am just expecting a fair bit more stockpiling for the release in asia than you are perhaps. In any case we have a lot of similar ideas about 2008 it seems but oddly enough our long term conclusions are very different...that in and of itself lends credence to my points about such predictions imo.
And finally, just to put them out there, my numbers for the Wii were 21m to 22m.
PS - Great thread~
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