The Wii is trending:

Almost perfectly in line with the PS2 in Others
Approx. 1.5 mill ahead in America
Approx. .5 mill ahead in Japan

Then you go onto say that the Wii will be outsold lifetime in Others by 14 million, 2 million in Japan and a statistical tie in America?! That seems to make zero sense to me at all. I think you need some more analysis to back up why you would think that the Wii is going to drop off faster than the PS2, especially in Others, to make claims like that when the graphs point to the opposite.

Aside from that, it all seems like solid guesstimates and good analysis.

I might be wrong, but I personally think that the Wii will decline at a faster pace. This is because the Wii has been bought by the majority of the loyal nintendo buyers already. This puts the brunt of the sales demographic onto casuals. Casuals are a very unstable market, going from one big thing to the next big thing very quickly. And i think that may become a problem for the Wii. Afterall, 2007 has been proclaimed as the year of the wii by many major news networks.

also, i don't think the Wii has the longevity to sell at that rate in the next three or four years. The technological advancements that will be in the news in the next two or three years will put the Wii in a weird position. It might seem a little too "last generation", because of its graphics, lack of media capabilities, and dependence on 1st party games. (3rd party games will for the most part tank, except for a handful. Just look at no more heroes or zack and wiki. they are some of the most promising games on the Wii, but zack and wiki has not sold well, and no more heroes has been reported to have had a luke warm launch in Japan.) It is sold solely as a mostly casual games console, with its first party titles, while the ps3 will be sold not only as a games console, but as a media hub.

all in all, here is my bold prediction:

The Wii will never reach over 70 million consoles LTD by the end of this generation.

Sue me... >_

Interesting. I'll give a similar prediction, but it'll probably end up being the same, as that is the most logical theory for how the sales will go down, although your PS3 sales will be a little higher than mine. Possibly Wii as well.

Was there ever any expectations that No More Heroes would sell in Japan?

Beyond that, the Wii has over 75 games that have sold more than 125,000 units (and 45 above 250,000) even though the vast majority of these games were crap. With the exception of a few games, every third party game worth owning on the Wii has broken even or turned a healthy profit.

As for the system's sales dropping off because it is "Too Last Generation" ... As long as there is a large (and growing) library of good games people will continue to buy a system; the average consumer has very little understanding of processing power and (realistically) could barely tell the difference between a PS3 game and a PS2 game.

I have no doubt that the Wii will have games that sell. With that many people buying the Wii, people are bound to buy games. But the question is, will those buyers be ultimately satisfied by those games?

We'll see in the next few years if the Wii lives up to its name.

another thread predicting wii will not sell nearly as many as it actually will

another day, same stuff

i'll bet wii sells >15mil in 2010

someone make the bet with me?

Looks like leo-j is gonna get vg$500 dollars on 8/1/08

:D

someone doesn't know how to analyze the market

 when wii hits 70mil by early 2010, will you continue to predict the 'fad' will end any day?

I'm working on my prediction and it'll be up tomorrow. It's not as good as Source's but it is as extensive.

"someone doesn't know how to analyze the market . when wii hits 70mil by early 2010, will you continue to predict the 'fad' will end any day?"

It has only been just over a year for this "fad". Fads don't disappear in just a year, and it's too early to be proclaiming, "do you really think its a fad after it has sold so many units?" i, on the otherhand, am just predicting. it's your choice whether you agree with me or not.

just look at furby, or livestrong bracelets. They became adopted very quickly within the market, with a lot of media attention, but they didn't disappear in just a year. They disappeared starting around the 3 year mark. The rate of that disappearance was very rapid, and i think the Wii may end up being like this.

the Wii and the ps2 had very different first years in terms of sales, so i'm refraining from comparing the Wii to ps2 sales in the future.