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The Wii is trending:

Almost perfectly in line with the PS2 in Others
Approx. 1.5 mill ahead in America
Approx. .5 mill ahead in Japan

Then you go onto say that the Wii will be outsold lifetime in Others by 14 million, 2 million in Japan and a statistical tie in America?! That seems to make zero sense to me at all. I think you need some more analysis to back up why you would think that the Wii is going to drop off faster than the PS2, especially in Others, to make claims like that when the graphs point to the opposite.

Aside from that, it all seems like solid guesstimates and good analysis.