Here are the numbers for all mario games this far (numbers taken in mid-February 2012):

Global:

The New Super Mario Bros. line seems to be trending downwards.

Global: 28.09M(DS) to 25.09M (Wii). Extrapolation, next is: 23.09M.

Japan: 6.43 (DS) to 4.51 (Wii). Extrapolation, next is: 3.18M.

As most series decay on the long run, I expect Mario 2D (3DS) to do 3.18M in japan.

Globally, I don't expect Mario 2D to maintain the momentum of NSMB Wii. Reason is, NSMB Wii had family appeal which DS/3DS offerings don't have. NSMB sold very well on the DS, but the Wii decline is not representative enough of the downward curve a sequel line normally follows. I expect sales of 20M global for Mario 2D on the 3DS, especially due to fatigue. I also expect sales of Super Mario 3D Land to grow over the years as the price is slightly lowered at the launch of Mario 2D (3DS).

About Super Mario 3D Land, here are its current sales numbers.

With a 16M unit userbase, Super Mario 3D Land has almost a 1:3 tie ratio. Much higher than the 1:5 for NSMB. I expect Super Mario 3D Land numbers to soar as 3DS Sales grow, a case of hardware driving software rather than the usual software driving hardware.

Here are the numbers

What are your predictions?

Well, NSMB released alongside the new DS Lite. If Nintendo does something like this with the 3DS (Remember though that the original DS was released around 2 years before the Lite) then it could boost the sales for another year, if Nintendo decide to release the new 3DS next year or 2014 (Which would be on the same track as the Original DS.)

The DS has sold less than 3DS in it's first year, so, it could mean that instead of what I would suspect as 3 Million first year for NSMB 3DS could be at least 5 Million ( at the least, (Depending on release date.)) When people are going to buy their 3DS's for themselves or their children they will, of course, be getting NSMB 3DS since that would be the huge pusher this Holiday. (If that is when they would release it,) The 3DS's sales would go sky-high and for sure beat out the 3DS last year for Holiday. So, first year I can see it doing 5 million to 7 million. Overall I could see it doing at least 20 Million at a low and matching NSMB Wii at a high. There are many factors though that could hinder it or help it reach that amount.

Nintendo has never screwed up a 2d Mario game. If they follow that pattern, it should sell over 20 million copies.

Some 8 digit number for sure.

We need some info on the game first but I'll play along, 25 million.

I made them myself, with vgchartz data, with Rol's input.

They're really well made, like most of your graphs. ^_^

27,358,231 will be the final number of copies shipped.

Despite the fact that we haven't seen anything yet, I'd still be willing to bet on over 20m.

The Wii 2d mario is being bundled with the console again.  Maybe that is why its sales are higher.