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Well, NSMB released alongside the new DS Lite. If Nintendo does something like this with the 3DS (Remember though that the original DS was released around 2 years before the Lite) then it could boost the sales for another year, if Nintendo decide to release the new 3DS next year or 2014 (Which would be on the same track as the Original DS.)

The DS has sold less than 3DS in it's first year, so, it could mean that instead of what I would suspect as 3 Million first year for NSMB 3DS could be at least 5 Million ( at the least, (Depending on release date.)) When people are going to buy their 3DS's for themselves or their children they will, of course, be getting NSMB 3DS since that would be the huge pusher this Holiday. (If that is when they would release it,) The 3DS's sales would go sky-high and for sure beat out the 3DS last year for Holiday. So, first year I can see it doing 5 million to 7 million. Overall I could see it doing at least 20 Million at a low and matching NSMB Wii at a high. There are many factors though that could hinder it or help it reach that amount.