CHARK >>>>> no i'm not basing it off my gut i'm basing it on the report last week (you even posted in the thread about it on here) that vita only sold 66k in its first month in france

Yes i look at his chart and it does not present enough data to determine the remainder of tye year. I know its still dropping, it's entering the lowest sales time of the year. It will go up during the holiday season and from future software releases. To assume an average of 90k is not erroneous. It's an average. We dont know what the lowest point of sales will be so dont toss in that it s going to do worse than 40k like its a guarantee. Im looking at percentage decline week to week and it's slowing down. That slow down indicates a leveling off. The current week shows Europe having the largest drop, affecting overall percentage drop more than others. The US is dropping slowly now and Japan is level. The Vita's level off point world wde could arguably be 40k but it wont hit that till about May. I dont know what kind of fluctuations will occur until the season pics up but it can be expected that the Vita can move a few hundred thousand a week. 

The wild card is Japan, its selling twice as much psp's, if those sales shift to the new system sales during the off season will be much better.

Btw his charts just shows the gap between the launches. The projections are very similar indicating reletivly the same sales growth, except Japan. It's really early to say much from that chart. What should be done is expanding it out a year and predicting the Vita's holiday growth line. I'll give it a shot tonight.

Cut the "your logic is completleeeh" crap and understand there are various prediction methods and multiple factors that can affect the outcome.

Yes i look at his chart and it does not present enough data to determine the remainder of tye year. I know its still dropping, it's entering the lowest sales time of the year. It will go up during the holiday season and from future software releases. To assume an average of 90k is not erroneous. It's an average. We dont know what the lowest point of sales will be so dont toss in that it s going to do worse than 40k like its a guarantee. Im looking at percentage decline week to week and it's slowing down. That slow down indicates a leveling off. The current week shows Europe having the largest drop, affecting overall percentage drop more than others. The US is dropping slowly now and Japan is level. The Vita's level off point world wde could arguably be 40k but it wont hit that till about May. I dont know what kind of fluctuations will occur until the season pics up but it can be expected that the Vita can move a few hundred thousand a week. 

The wild card is Japan, its selling twice as much psp's, if those sales shift to the new system sales during the off season will be much better.

Btw his charts just shows the gap between the launches. The projections are very similar indicating reletivly the same sales growth, except Japan. It's really early to say much from that chart. What should be done is expanding it out a year and predicting the Vita's holiday growth line. I'll give it a shot tonight.

Cut the "your logic is completleeeh" crap and understand there are various prediction methods and multiple factors that can affect the outcome.

I voted 9 million, sales have been a little bit better than I thought until now, also Im expected it to pick up in the 2nd half of the year

I think it is erroneous to think that the Vita will average at 90K a week for the rest of the year. First of all, Sony's strongest handheld market is Japan where it is currently selling 10K a week, so it will probably even out at a lower number than 10K in the US and in Europe; sales will probably be under 30K most weeks this year.

90K a week is an average, Vita will sell lower than that but it will also sell higher than that later this year. This average makes sense and I'm rounding down. In Japan they are still buying PSPs, 19k just this last week and software keeps coming out and selling well. Once that starts to slow down and when people opt to buy Vita's instead that 19k will shift, not entirely but it will boost Vita sales there. Look at DS sales compared to 3DS sales in Japan, sure there isn't a backwards compatibility issue but it's still crazy to see how little DS is selling now. The same will happen to PSP, I'm guessing this year but maybe it will still sell till next year. You can't base other regions sales solely on the sales of another region. Japan's Vita sales are much lower than would be normal, other countries could easily outsell Japan until they pick up.

Your basis for assuming that the 3DS was performing the same as Vita was based on the fact that 3DS hit a record low the week before its announced price drop.  Of course the sales were going to be horrendous that week, as most people were waiting to buy it for $80 less the next week.  And it took longer for the 3DS to eventually drop and level out at the Vita's current numbers, not to mention it had a bigger install base when it finally did.  So it's not "crap" to say that your logic for this comparison is flawed, because it is.

As far as Vita entering the lowest sales time of the year, the 3DS was in the same boat, so what's your point?  Again, as bad as 3DS sales were, Vita's are even worse.  I never once said that Vita sales would stay as low as they are forever.

Your 90k a week will only prove relevant if Vita sales shoot back up from its current 77,000, which of course is possible.  But if sales keep dropping in the coming weeks or level out where it is currently, it is indeed erroneous to call 90k its average.  And if you read my post again, you'll see that I never said Vita's sales were "guaranteed" to level out at 40k; what I in fact stated was that its pre price drop week would see sales below that, which I stand by unless a big game is released said week.

And I am well aware of the many factors and variables involved, which is why I stated in my very first post that the best thing to do is wait until after E3 to have much more knowledge on these variables before guessing what Vita will be at come year's end.  If I were guessing purely on what we know now, I would say around 6m, which is what I voted for.  But I actually believe that some pleasant news may come out of E3, which would put it around 8m by Dec 31st, IMO.

This is true.  I took the OP to mean that 90k would be the average in addition to the holiday spike, which was my mistake.  If the 90k average includes the holiday spike, then I agree that's very likely conservative.

The whole point of saying 90k is to justify that sales will be at least 5 million, and to try to reason with the people who predict something like 2 to 3 million which happened anyway.

Also look back through the 3DS sales before the price drop, even just after. they are not impressive. The Vita hasnt even been out long enough to match the 3DS drought.